MVFC Blog: How many teams will make the playoffs?

[mmiller_34]

You can put in your vote here: http://mvfcfan.blogspot.com/

Some might argue its too early to talk about this stuff, but the MVFC has multiple teams that have put themselves in position to make playoffs a reality.

My vote was three. I think that for sure Youngstown State and North Dakota State will go, I think the third team will be between Illinois State, Indiana State, and South Dakota State. Some even argue UNI still has a shot. Lets hear it.

[wapiti]

20

[RabidRabbit]

You can put in your vote here: http://mvfcfan.blogspot.com/

Some might argue its too early to talk about this stuff, but the MVFC has multiple teams that have put themselves in position to make playoffs a reality.

My vote was three. I think that for sure Youngstown State and North Dakota State will go, I think the third team will be between Illinois State, Indiana State, and South Dakota State. Some even argue UNI still has a shot. Lets hear it.

Mitch - I'll take 4 MVFC. NDSU/YSU/IL St/SDSU.

NDSU - Gets #1 seed after a 10-1 season. Either YSU or SDSU beat them in Fargo.
YSU - One of the only two BCS conference FCS wins. Plus likely NEC champ. Likely to lose only the two road Dakota games.
IL State - doesn't play SDSU, and has a FBS win and 2 quality FCS OOC W's.
SDSU - Finishes in 3 way tie for 2nd with YSU/IL St, with 6-2 MVFC record, but win over YSU.

UNI scheduled themselves out of play-offs with D-II game and 2 BCS games. Had no margin for losses in MVFC play. Now toast.

Ind St. - Unless they knock off NDSU/YSU or IL St, they'll be watching from home at T-day.

[Happy Penguin]

We'll probably have 4, maybe 5 worthy teams tops but we'll end up with 3.

How many will the CAA get, and how many of those teams are deserving is another topic worth considering.

[DJKyR0]

UNI has no shot. Saying "virtually eliminated" is purely semantics at this point. Done.

I've got four. At this point I'm counting YSU and NDSU as locks and ILSU as asymptotic to a lock. I think either SDSU or INSU can get to seven wins and along the way they pick up enough good wins to sneak in as the 19th or 20th team into the field. Won't reveal too much here in an effort to protect future blog traffic but Indiana State's schedule is surprisingly favorable to a 7-win record, and if they can win with Illinois State at home I think a top-ten win gets a 7-win Valley team in.

[BisonFan02]

4....NDSU, YSI, ISU-Birds, and either SDSU or ISU-Trees

[Jacked_Rabbit]

UNI has no shot. Saying "virtually eliminated" is purely semantics at this point. Done.

I've got four. At this point I'm counting YSU and NDSU as locks and ILSU as asymptotic to a lock. I think either SDSU or INSU can get to seven wins and along the way they pick up enough good wins to sneak in as the 19th or 20th team into the field. Won't reveal too much here in an effort to protect future blog traffic but Indiana State's schedule is surprisingly favorable to a 7-win record, and if they can win with Illinois State at home I think a top-ten win gets a 7-win Valley team in.

I echo everything above, and if it comes down to SDSU vs. Indiana St. for the 4th and final MVFC playoff spot, I'm glad the Jacks beat them head to head at their place. That will surely help our case.

[MTfan4life]

I echo everything above, and if it comes down to SDSU vs. Indiana St. for the 4th and final MVFC playoff spot, I'm glad the Jacks beat them head to head at their place. That will surely help our case.

Another thing helping you is ISU-b needs to go 5-1 to have a shot at the playoffs. SDSU only needs to go 3-3 or better.

[Gil Dobie]

2 Conference champ and runner-up. Too many schools in the CAA and Big Sky messing things up.

[eiu1999]

NDSU, YSU and either IL State or SDSU.

[Jacked_Rabbit]

2 Conference champ and runner-up. Too many schools in the CAA and Big Sky messing things up.

Only two?!?! With 5 teams likely (& 4 almost surely) to have 7 D1 wins, I'd be really surprised if that's how things play out. It is possible, but I guess that's why we play the games.

[DJKyR0]

2 Conference champ and runner-up. Too many schools in the CAA and Big Sky messing things up.

Difference is that the MVFC is obliterating both of those conferences in comparative strength. If NDSU the loser of YSU and NDSU can keep winning and depending on how ILSU fits into that trifecta it could positively benefit a fourth Valley team like SDSU, who went 2-0 in OOC play against a Southland and a Big Sky. Compared to how garbage some OOC schedules can be on 7-win teams, SDSU is comparatively sitting pretty good.

[RabidRabbit]

Difference is that the MVFC is obliterating both of those conferences in comparative strength. If NDSU the loser of YSU and NDSU can keep winning and depending on how ILSU fits into that trifecta it could positively benefit a fourth Valley team like SDSU, who went 2-0 in OOC play against a Southland and a Big Sky. Compared to how garbage some OOC schedules can be on 7-win teams, SDSU is comparatively sitting pretty good.

The one other conference that will send a bunch is the combined GWFC/BSC, known as Big Sky. 4 teams from the Big Sky knocked off FBS opponents already. Two of the FBS-slayers don't play the Montana schools, so if they can win 7+ D-I wins, I think they're in.

OVC, and SLC are likely to only have auto-bid in unless there is an FBS-slayer (McNeese?) who gets in a 2nd slot. McNeese really hurt by the SE LA loss in SLC action. Did CAA or SoCon have any FBS winners? Seems like those mostly came out of the BSC or MVFC.

[MTfan4life]

Only two?!?! With 5 teams likely (& 4 almost surely) to have 7 D1 wins, I'd be really surprised if that's how things play out. It is possible, but I guess that's why we play the games.

I'd be very surprised if any more than 4 get to 7 wins. I have the MVFC currently projected to send 4, but I can't see how Indiana State has much of a chance to get to 7 wins. They need two out of three against NDSU, ISU-r, and YSU and 3-0 in their other three conference battles.

[Jacked_Rabbit]

I'd be very surprised if any more than 4 get to 7 wins. I have the MVFC currently projected to send 4, but I can't see how Indiana State has much of a chance to get to 7 wins. They need two out of three against NDSU, ISU-r, and YSU and 3-0 in their other three conference battles.

Agreed - I should've said 4 highly likely and 5 a possibility. Based on how things currently stand and looking at the remaining schedules, I think there is an 90% chance of 3 getting in, and a 60% chance 4 will make it. I'd be surprised to only see 2 make it, which was the point of my post.

[RabidRabbit]

I'd be very surprised if any more than 4 get to 7 wins. I have the MVFC currently projected to send 4, but I can't see how Indiana State has much of a chance to get to 7 wins. They need two out of three against NDSU, ISU-r, and YSU and 3-0 in their other three conference battles.

Like UNI, InSt played a non-counter (Quincy), so really on bubble to get to 7 wins. The SDSU/InSt game really was a play-in game.

[frozennorth]

#1 11-0 NDSU
#3 10-1 YSU
8-3 isu

bubble:
7-4 sdsu

[frozennorth]

Difference is that the MVFC is obliterating both of those conferences in comparative strength. If NDSU the loser of YSU and NDSU can keep winning and depending on how ILSU fits into that trifecta it could positively benefit a fourth Valley team like SDSU, who went 2-0 in OOC play against a Southland and a Big Sky. Compared to how garbage some OOC schedules can be on 7-win teams, SDSU is comparatively sitting pretty good.

the mvfc had the edge in sos last year, didn't do isu any good

[Gil Dobie]

Only two?!?! With 5 teams likely (& 4 almost surely) to have 7 D1 wins, I'd be really surprised if that's how things play out. It is possible, but I guess that's why we play the games.

The left ISU out last year, a team that deserved to be in. They were as good as anyone NDSU played in the playoffs, except for Sam. Conference deserves 3-4 teams, but might get cut-off by the committee again.

[HensRock]

While history has shown us that 7 DI wins is most certainly a NECCESARY condition for making the playoffs,
it is not a SUFFICIENT condition.

(although with a 20-team field it might be close to it)

[UNIFanSince1983]

What happens if UNI wins out and is on a 6 game winning streak. In which they have destroyed all the teams they have played including SDSU and ISUr. Then NDSU finishes undefeated, YSU only loses to NDSU. This means they are both in. ISUr should probably still be in with 3 losses only to NDSU, YSU, and UNI. Would a 7-4 SDSU team get in ahead of a 6-4 UNI team that would have destroyed them?

Clearly this is hypothetical, but from what I am hearing from you guys they might. I think in that situation if UNI doesn't get in SDSU wouldn't either. I can't imagine they would value 1 extra D1 win that much more than a head-to-head loss. Who knows this is just my opinion of the situation, and there is still a lot of football to be played.

[mmiller_34]

Would a 7-4 SDSU team get in ahead of a 6-4 UNI team that would have destroyed them? Clearly this is hypothetical, but from what I am hearing from you guys they might. I think in that situation if UNI doesn't get in SDSU wouldn't either.

+1, I think UNI would block SDSU out of the playoffs if that happened.

[ITmonarch10]

+1, I think UNI would block SDSU out of the playoffs if that happened.

That would be messed up if UNI runs the table but ends of screwing the MVFC from sending more teams to playoffs because of their crappy scheduling. I think either ISUr or SDSU loses too a random team and the MVFC gets 3 teams in.
Also, the reason the CAA got 5 teams last year was because of alot of teams choking in their last game of the season combined with the lack of a dominate CAA team last year. We had a bunch of 9-2| 8-3| 7-4 teams who won the majority of thier non-conference games. We didn't have a team seeded because of it.

[Happy Penguin]

The left ISU out last year, a team that deserved to be in. They were as good as anyone NDSU played in the playoffs, except for Sam. Conference deserves 3-4 teams, but might get cut-off by the committee again.

We seem to be always 1 team short when it comes to who goes and who should go...I wonder why that is?

[JSUBison]

The one other conference that will send a bunch is the combined GWFC/BSC, known as Big Sky. 4 teams from the Big Sky knocked off FBS opponents already. Two of the FBS-slayers don't play the Montana schools, so if they can win 7+ D-I wins, I think they're in.

OVC, and SLC are likely to only have auto-bid in unless there is an FBS-slayer (McNeese?) who gets in a 2nd slot. McNeese really hurt by the SE LA loss in SLC action. Did CAA or SoCon have any FBS winners? Seems like those mostly came out of the BSC or MVFC.

Last year Sac State beat Oregon State and didn't make the playoffs. I see that happening again for them. As of right now, the BS teams look to be Poly, MSU, EWU and maybe NAU. One of NAU's win is against a DII or NAIA, whatever Fort Lewis is. They do have a favorable schedule ahead of them though. Sac State, not so much.

[RabidRabbit]

Last year Sac State beat Oregon State and didn't make the playoffs. I see that happening again for them. As of right now, the BS teams look to be Poly, MSU, EWU and maybe NAU. One of NAU's win is against a DII or NAIA, whatever Fort Lewis is. They do have a favorable schedule ahead of them though. Sac State, not so much.

The key issue for FBS-slayers, still need to have 7 D-I wins, minimum. NDSU finished 4-4 in MVFC play in 2010, but made the play-offs as a 7-4 team. Why? Beating KU, that's why. So a 7-4 team w/o a FBS win, and nothing but Pioneer/NEC/Patriot/Ivy wins will not get an at-large over a 7-4 team with a FBS win.

[RabidRabbit]

What happens if UNI wins out and is on a 6 game winning streak. In which they have destroyed all the teams they have played including SDSU and ISUr. Then NDSU finishes undefeated, YSU only loses to NDSU. This means they are both in. ISUr should probably still be in with 3 losses only to NDSU, YSU, and UNI. Would a 7-4 SDSU team get in ahead of a 6-4 UNI team that would have destroyed them?

Clearly this is hypothetical, but from what I am hearing from you guys they might. I think in that situation if UNI doesn't get in SDSU wouldn't either. I can't imagine they would value 1 extra D1 win that much more than a head-to-head loss. Who knows this is just my opinion of the situation, and there is still a lot of football to be played.

ISU-R would be in for the scenerio describe with an 8-3 record. SDSU would be a bubble team at 7-4. A lot depends on how UC-Davis, SE LA, and ISU-B do in the rest of the season. If ISU-B does well the rest of the way, then they'll make a case for SDSU being in. SDSU has 3 tough games, and 2 that they need to win. One of the 2 though, is USD, a huge rivalry game.