Lehigh-Albany-Villanova

[Nova09]

I don't vote, but I'm curious as to why people voted Lehigh, Albany, and Villanova the way they did. In the AGS poll, Lehigh sits at 13, Albany at 20, Nova at 27. I am in no way saying Nova should be ahead of these teams, I chose them for 2 reasons: the equal spacing (7 spots each) and my familiarity with the teams/common opponents.

If I were to make a poll, I'd imagine these teams would all be very close together in the high teens-low twenties range. I have no idea what order I would settle on. What I'm interested in is how voters ordered these teams and why they put them where they did.

Now I know different voters have different philosophies, such as a poll should reflect what a team has accomplished thus far, a poll should be predictive of future results, a poll shows how I feel about the strength of a team based on whatever criteria suits my mood, etc. All of this should go into the discussion.

I can't stress enough that I'm not arguing that anyone is overrated or underrated, I'm merely trying to facilitate discussion and understand the mindset of voters. The way I see it these teams are very close, but obviously voters see it differently. I tend to believe that if Villanova had played either Lehigh or Albany's schedule and had the exact same result while the other team switched with Villanova's schedule and had the exact same results, the poll would look the same because Lehigh and Albany were preseason ranked and nova wasn't. This doesn't seem right to me, but there is a valid case to be made that both of the others will have a better record at season end and are returning from playoff campaigns last year.

[danefan]

I was thinking the other day about how Villanova and Albany are very similar in terms of resume. The big difference is the Temple loss for Villanova is a big hole to climb out of. Albany doesn't have that blemish. The only loss is a tight 7 point game at YSU in which Albany went score for score for all but one drive.

I didn't lump Lehigh in, but maybe I should have.

[UNH Fanboi]

I'd put Albany ahead of Lehigh based on what we've seen so far. I think Lehigh is riding a little too high in the polls based on last year's performane. I havent gorten a goo read on Nova yet.

[danefan]

Resumes:

​Albany (4-1)

Sep 1 - W vs. Colgate (2-3), 40-23


Sep 8 - W at Robert Morris (1-4), 35-10


Sep 15 - L at Youngstown St (4-0), 24-31


Sep 22 - W at Maine (1-3), 30-20


Sep 29 - W vs. Monmouth (3-2), 55-24




Villanova (4-1)


Aug 31 - L at Temple FBS (1-2), 10-41


Sep 8 - W vs. Fordham (3-2), 28-13


Sep 15 - W vs. Rhode Island (0-4), 31-10


Sep 22 - W at Penn (1-2), 24-8


Sep 29 - W at Maine (1-3), 35-14



Lehigh (5-0)


Sep 1 - W vs. Monmouth (3-2), 27-17


Sep 8 - W at Cent Conn St (0-5), 35-14


Sep 15 - W vs. Princeton (1-2), 17-14


Sep 22 - W at Liberty (0-4), 28-26


Sep 29 - W vs. Fordham (3-2), 34-31

[danefan]

Looking at the above, I'd rank the best performance as follows:

1. Villanova over Maine.
2. Albany over Maine (Nova had a larger margin of victory)
3. Albany loss at YSU (yes a loss can be a very good performance)
4. Albany win over Monmouth
5. Lehigh win over Monmouth
6. Villanova win over Fordham
7. Lehigh win over Fordham
8. Albany win over Colgate

Everything else can be washed either way, IMO.

Nothing much to write home about. Lehigh is clearly riding on its playoffs success last year. No other explanation.

[Nova09]

thanks for posting the schedules/results, danefan!

and fanboi, I figured I'd get a lot of people saying they don't know what to make of nova yet. It's a valid point; we haven't gotten to the meat of our schedule. At the same time, Lehigh and Albany will never get to a "meat of the schedule" like ODU, JMU, Towson, Delaware within 5 games, so how exactly do you have a better read on them?

[Pard4Life]

It's true, Lehigh is vastly overrated... and I'm not saying so because of sour grapes. The resumes support that assertion. Lehigh barely won their last three games, and the Monmouth game was close too. Liberty is winless, Princeton beat Columbia, and Fordham is respectable, but was soundly beaten by Villanova in the second half.

And for the record, I have Albany #15, Villanova #24, and Lehigh #25 in my AGS poll. Albany's 7-point loss at #2 YSU is a strength too.

[bluehenbillk]

I had all 3 teams ranked this week, Albany, then Lehigh, then Villanova. VU has definitely been a surprise so far this year. I think Albany is a solid team - as previously mentioned they hung in there with YSU and have blown the doors off all their lesser competition. Lehigh's spot in many people's rankings may be based somewhat on last season. They're undefeated this year which has to be respected but they aren't giving any doubters reason to believe either with tight games against a cupcake schedule.

[crusader11]

I had Albany at 17, Lehigh at 21, Villanova at 25.

[crusader11]

Lehigh is clearly riding on its playoffs success last year. No other explanation.

Correct. That was my hypothesis why many pollsters are ranking them top 15.

[BisonFan02]

CAA>Patriot>NEC? I'm not saying I vote that way, but I think it may have alot to do with it.

[crusader11]

CAA>Patriot>NEC? I'm not saying I vote that way, but I think it may have alot to do with it.

But all of these results thus far are based on the non-conference performance. League play, by and large, hasn't begun yet.

[BisonFan02]

But all of these results thus far are based on the non-conference performance. League play, by and large, hasn't begun yet.

I understand that. It was more of a comment about how people could take conference affiliation and subminally vote based on program/conference strength.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Lehigh's schedule this year is similar to last year except they didn't play UNH. Monmouth is better, as is Fordham and Liberty was 1-3 after Lehigh beat them last season.

[RichH2]

Gee, I was wondering when a thread like this would appear. Have at it boys.

[Pard4Life]

Correct. That was my hypothesis why many pollsters are ranking them top 15.

I have to believe that much of the "2011 bias" is from the southern, central and western AGS contingent.

[WileECoyote06]

But if Lehigh is living off last years success, can't we say the same thing about Montana State? Why are they in the top five, when they've clearly played the easy part of their schedule and may end up with four losses?

Honestly, I think it is fair to afford teams who have proven they can compete in the playoffs the benefit of the doubt; especially since they remain undefeated. If Lehigh is upset by any of the teams remaining on their schedule, voters will likely penalize them even moreso than they would a team who has played a tougher schedule. Albany has played a good schedule so far, but if they lose any of their remaining games, they will likely suffer the same fate. There are just too many different biases and factors involved in ranking to give a good gauge of where the voters' mindset is right now, including the recent past, conference bias, dominating wins, humiliating losses, SOS, etc. Things usually work themselves out around week 8 or 9.

[VUCats02]

Nova is going to lose a lot of games in the 2nd half of the season. They need to absolutely beat Richmond and Georgia State and then they will be underdogs in every other game for the rest of the season. If they can just get one upset, and take care of business against Richmond and Georgia State, they should make the playoffs. Lehigh and Albany don't have to worry about such a backloaded schedule.

[Hawk98]

I'm kind of stunned how much thought is wasted on talking about polls on this site. The whole reason I stopped watching FBS football was that the polls mattered. Who cares where Lehigh is ranked? The only time it matters is when the committee seeds the tournament and even then, I doubt they are looking at many of these polls at all. Does any one believe any voter seriously watches enough game footage to accurately rank these teams? Coaches aren't looking at any team that isn't on their schedule, and there is a strong incentive to vote up conference teams to improve their own strength of schedule.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Some nationally-ranked is going to lose to Richmond this year in the CAA, and it won't affect their national ranking much, because many voters knee-jerk and think, "Hey! It's a CAA loss! It must be a good loss!", even though Richmond might finish 3-8.

Either Albany or Lehigh could absolutely lose a tough conference game against, say, Duquesne and Colgate, and many voters will knee-jerk, despite the relative merits of Duquesne or Colgate, and say, "Hey! It's a (PL/NEC) loss! It must be a **** loss!", even though Duquesne and Colgate could be their respective conference champions.

My point being that any sort-of bias from last year's results ultimately get swept away by the long-term perceptions of the league, rightly or wrongly. This also works in reverse. Villanova beats, say, a 6-5 Delaware team, and suddenly that's seen as a "quality win" simply because it's a CAA game.

What's ironic is that Lehigh went to Towson and took out the CAA champions in their place, something that only one other CAA team could do last year, yet that doesn't count for anything.

[VUCats02]

It's not wasted thought. The whole reason I even watch sports is for discussions like these. While the discussions don't mean anything, it's interesting to talk about polls and see what people's opinions are.

[UNH Fanboi]

Some nationally-ranked is going to lose to Richmond this year in the CAA, and it won't affect their national ranking much, because many voters knee-jerk and think, "Hey! It's a CAA loss! It must be a good loss!", even though Richmond might finish 3-8.

Either Albany or Lehigh could absolutely lose a tough conference game against, say, Duquesne and Colgate, and many voters will knee-jerk, despite the relative merits of Duquesne or Colgate, and say, "Hey! It's a (PL/NEC) loss! It must be a **** loss!", even though Duquesne and Colgate could be their respective conference champions.

My point being that any sort-of bias from last year's results ultimately get swept away by the long-term perceptions of the league, rightly or wrongly. This also works in reverse. Villanova beats, say, a 6-5 Delaware team, and suddenly that's seen as a "quality win" simply because it's a CAA game.

What's ironic is that Lehigh went to Towson and took out the CAA champions in their place, something that only one other CAA team could do last year, yet that doesn't count for anything.

Lehigh's win over Towson counted for something in last year's final poll and this year's preseason poll. Given that we are moving into week 6 and Lehigh has looked decidely less impressive than they did last year, it means very little now. Not sure why you're bringing that up.

[WileECoyote06]

Lehigh's win over Towson counted for something in last year's final poll and this year's preseason poll. Given that we are moving into week 6 and Lehigh has looked decidely less impressive than they did last year, it means very little now. Not sure why you're bringing that up.

Same reason I brought up Montana State.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Lehigh's win over Towson counted for something in last year's final poll and this year's preseason poll. Given that we are moving into week 6 and Lehigh has looked decidely less impressive than they did last year, it means very little now. Not sure why you're bringing that up.

My point is that "strength of schedule" is in the eye of the beholder, largely based on shortcutting the conference strength in for "quality of schedule" when no data exist for a fair comparison. This happens here since comparing all three schedules, it's reasonable to assume that Lehigh, Albany and Villanova all would have most likely lost to Temple and Youngstown, and the head-to-head of common opponents is inconclusive. So then the judgement of "quality of wins" falls to wins over 1-4 Robert Morris, 0-5 Central Connecticut State, and 0-4 Rhode Island - all bad teams, quite frankly.

In the end, it doesn't matter. Keep winning, and it will all take care of itself.

[Fear the Bird]

I'm kind of stunned how much thought is wasted on talking about polls on this site. The whole reason I stopped watching FBS football was that the polls mattered. Who cares where Lehigh is ranked? The only time it matters is when the committee seeds the tournament and even then, I doubt they are looking at many of these polls at all. Does any one believe any voter seriously watches enough game footage to accurately rank these teams? Coaches aren't looking at any team that isn't on their schedule, and there is a strong incentive to vote up conference teams to improve their own strength of schedule.

Meh, it's more for the discussion than truly being passionate about where anybody is ranked as we get to play it out in December at this level. I'm not exactly sure what else you were expecting to read on Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning. The game chatter picks up by Wednesday.

[Fear the Bird]

I had Albany at 17, Lehigh at 21, Villanova at 25.

Well between you, me and Pard4Life that's very similar thinking (I have Albany at 17, Lehigh at 22, Nova at 24). We must clearly be in the minority

[Nova09]

In the end, it doesn't matter. Keep winning, and it will all take care of itself.

That's sort of a cop-out. And i know someone else used that line first, but yours was more recent so I quoted you. Simply saying things will be better later is no excuse to not strive for making things better now.

Anyway, I think this is one of the rare cases where it will actually be harder to compare the teams in question when we have more results. Right now, I see them with very similar resumes so they should be very close in rankings. After Villanova loses to some top notch teams, it will be much more difficult to compare with Albany and Lehigh. All the more reason we should get it right now.

[UNH Fanboi]

Same reason I brought up Montana State.

I agree about Montana St.; hey are overrated right now.

[Franks Tanks]

Most pointless thread ever. All 3 teams will probably get into the playoffs and may even play each other. Who cares who should be #12 or #17 half way through the season?

[HailSzczur]

That's sort of a cop-out. And i know someone else used that line first, but yours was more recent so I quoted you. Simply saying things will be better later is no excuse to not strive for making things better now.

Anyway, I think this is one of the rare cases where it will actually be harder to compare the teams in question when we have more results. Right now, I see them with very similar resumes so they should be very close in rankings. After Villanova loses to some top notch teams, it will be much more difficult to compare with Albany and Lehigh. All the more reason we should get it right now.

It is a cop out, but its the best you can do at this point. Everyone came into this season thinking Lehigh would be good because they were good last year. Albany was a decent team last year and people thought the same for this year. Nova is hindered because no one expected anything from them. But the truth is, Nova is 1 or 2 wins away from a point where people won't be able to ignore them in their Top 25, or even Top 15. LFN is right, keep winning and the less informed voters will come around. The first half of the season is tough on voters because you can't really compare enough teams like you just did with Nova, Lehigh, and Albany

[WileECoyote06]

I agree about Montana St.; hey are overrated right now.

I wouldn't say overrated, I would argue that they are existing off past-reputation. But one must wonder why the comparison is between Albany, Lehigh, and Villanova, when the high ranking of Montana State is even more puzzling than Lehigh when based on the 'performance against schedule' argument.

Ironically, Montana State is #4, seven spots ahead of Lehigh. lol

[crusader11]

Most pointless thread ever. All 3 teams will probably get into the playoffs and may even play each other. Who cares who should be #12 or #17 half way through the season?

Just trying to make it to Saturday afternoon, Tanks.

[Franks Tanks]

Just trying to make it to Saturday afternoon, Tanks.

I hear man, but I can see this turning into a pissing match very quickly.

BTW Lehigh should be ranked behind both teams xnodx

[MTfan4life]

Most pointless thread ever. All 3 teams will probably get into the playoffs and may even play each other. Who cares who should be #12 or #17 half way through the season?

Villanova needs 3 wins to get to the 7 win threshold. They play Georgia State so that makes it two wins to get there. Only problem: Richmond, ODU, Towson, James Madison, and Delaware are the other 5 teams on their schedule. It's going to be a very tough road to qualify for the playoffs. To say they'll "probably get in" is no guarantee just yet.

[Nova09]

I hear man, but I can see this turning into a pissing match very quickly.

BTW Lehigh should be ranked behind both teams xnodx

I feared that myself when starting this thread, but so far I'm pretty happy with the responses. Although nearly everyone posting has the 3 teams grouped closely together, so it hasn't really given me much insight into the rationale of ranking one significantly above another.

[danefan]

I feared that myself when starting this thread, but so far I'm pretty happy with the responses. Although nearly everyone posting has the 3 teams grouped closely together, so it hasn't really given me much insight into the rationale of ranking one significantly above another.

I think it proves out the point that last year's results are still factoring heavily in this year's polls.

Lehigh - playoff win = ranked the highest of the three
Albany - playoffs but loss = ranked in the middle
Villanova - no playoffs

There is also a conference affiliation factor, IMO that is being applied to both Albany and Villanova, but somehow ignored for Lehigh in the TSN poll (not AGS).

Because of the NEC Label - Albany is underranked in spite of last year's success.
Because of the CAA Label - Villanova on the radar at all is only due to the CAA and name recognition.

If a CAA team had made the playoffs last year, returned a solid core, upgraded QBs and started out 4-1 with only a 1 score loss to the #2 team in country, you can bet your bottom dollar they would be ranked somewhere in the TSN poll.

And if an NEC team went 2-9 the year before, they wouldn't be on anyone's radar even with a resume like Villanova.

[danefan]

I found this interesting since Albany and Villanova are both in the Top 25 on average, but are the only ones not ranked in either the TSN or Coaches' Poll.

http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm

[HailSzczur]

Villanova needs 3 wins to get to the 7 win threshold. They play Georgia State so that makes it two wins to get there. Only problem: Richmond, ODU, Towson, James Madison, and Delaware are the other 5 teams on their schedule. It's going to be a very tough road to qualify for the playoffs. To say they'll "probably get in" is no guarantee just yet.

A win this weekend against Richmond and I'd give us the "probably getting in tag". I'll take the odds of winning 1 game out of JMU, ODU, UDel, and Towson.

[Nova09]

I found this interesting since Albany and Villanova are both in the Top 25 on average, but are the only ones not ranked in either the TSN or Coaches' Poll.

http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm

I like that Dolphin! (serious CAA bias, all top 5 teams???? plus 7, 12, 19, 30)

[van]

I think it proves out the point that last year's results are still factoring heavily in this year's polls.

Lehigh - playoff win = ranked the highest of the three
Albany - playoffs but loss = ranked in the middle
Villanova - no playoffs

There is also a conference affiliation factor, IMO that is being applied to both Albany and Villanova, but somehow ignored for Lehigh in the TSN poll (not AGS).

Because of the NEC Label - Albany is underranked in spite of last year's success.
Because of the CAA Label - Villanova on the radar at all is only due to the CAA and name recognition.

If a CAA team had made the playoffs last year, returned a solid core, upgraded QBs and started out 4-1 with only a 1 score loss to the #2 team in country, you can bet your bottom dollar they would be ranked somewhere in the TSN poll.

And if an NEC team went 2-9 the year before, they wouldn't be on anyone's radar even with a resume like Villanova.

Excellent analysis, as usual from Danefan.

[van]

A win this weekend against Richmond and I'd give us the "probably getting in tag". I'll take the odds of winning 1 game out of JMU, ODU, UDel, and Towson.

Hens not really that strong this year, I would expect 2 of the 4 could be wins for Nova.

[heath]

Lehigh and Albany MIGHT have one loss lurking on the remaining schedule,but it's very possible to see four more losses on the Villanova side. The CAA is the much better conference,but many voters just look at the overall record not SOS. Hope all 3 can make the playoffs.

[Engineer86]

Clearly last year plays a role hear, but that will disappear immediately with a loss for Lehigh. Because the margin of victory has not been where many would expect it, I would expect one loss would move Lehigh out of the rankings.

Are we at the point that margin of victory plays more than winning? Again, a Lehigh loss would indicate such a view has merit, but what if Lehigh wins out, at some point does the winning, even if all close wins, carry more weight than the margin of victory. Does the view that good teams find a way to win games come into play?

On matching schedules, 11-0 Lehigh compared to 10-1 Albany will like end up with similar rankings and would make a great second round match up.

[danefan]

Clearly last year plays a role hear, but that will disappear immediately with a loss for Lehigh. Because the margin of victory has not been where many would expect it, I would expect one loss would move Lehigh out of the rankings.

Are we at the point that margin of victory plays more than winning? Again, a Lehigh loss would indicate such a view has merit, but what if Lehigh wins out, at some point does the winning, even if all close wins, carry more weight than the margin of victory. Does the view that good teams find a way to win games come into play?

On matching schedules, 11-0 Lehigh compared to 10-1 Albany will like end up with similar rankings and would make a great second round match up.
I hope your right, but I don't think it will turn out that way.

11-0 Lehigh is in the hunt for a seed and is just about guaranteed a first round bye.
10-1 Albany is still playing on Thanksgiving weekend.

[LUHawker]

Well between you, me and Pard4Life that's very similar thinking (I have Albany at 17, Lehigh at 22, Nova at 24). We must clearly be in the minority

And where, pray, tell, do you have your Blue Hens?

[LUHawker]

I hear man, but I can see this turning into a pissing match very quickly.

BTW Lehigh should be ranked behind both teams xnodx

Says the unbiased gentlemen from Lafayette....

[Pard4Life]

Says the unbiased gentlemen from Lafayette....

A significant majority of non-affiliated seems to agree, as seen by this thread as well... Lehigh should be nowhere near the top 10.

FYI I have Delaware at #22. So that's Albany #15, Delaware #22, Villanova #24, Lehigh #25.

I know what I'm doing in polls... I have ranked NDSU #1 the longest in AGS, along with 'twentysix'. I ranked them #1 last year two weeks before the Minnesota game and was the only person until 'twentysix' joined me as only the second person. And, I had SHSU ranked way higher than the aggregate poll for much of the season unitl the very end, when everyone had them really high. Too bad they don't give an AGS award for 'most accurately predicted poll.' :D

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

A significant majority of non-affiliated seems to agree, as seen by this thread as well... Lehigh should be nowhere near the top 10.

FYI I have Delaware at #22. So that's Albany #15, Delaware #22, Villanova #24, Lehigh #25.

I know what I'm doing in polls... I have ranked NDSU #1 the longest in AGS, along with 'twentysix'. I ranked them #1 last year two weeks before the Minnesota game and was the only person until 'twentysix' joined me as only the second person. And, I had SHSU ranked way higher than the aggregate poll for much of the season unitl the very end, when everyone had them really high. Too bad they don't give an AGS award for 'most accurately predicted poll.' :D

Pard,
Where did you have Lehigh last year in the final poll? 15-20? Lehigh's schedule last year could actually turn out to be weaker. Based on what many are saying Lehigh's ranking last season was basically based on their 2010 season and an OT loss to UNH.

Lehigh is not going to play FBS money games or D2 games. They're going to play mostly regional opponents and let the chips fall where they may.

Via cell

[Pard4Life]

Pard,
Where did you have Lehigh last year in the final poll? 15-20? Lehigh's schedule last year could actually turn out to be weaker. Based on what many are saying Lehigh's ranking last year was basically based on their 2010 season and an OT loss to UNH.

Lehigh is not going to play FBS money games or D2 games. They're going to play mostly regional oppenents and let the chips fall where they may.

Just checked... I had Lehigh #13 in my final regular season poll, and #8 following the playoffs. In fact, of my final top 10 teams, only four are in my current top ten: NDSU, SHSU, Stony Brook, and Towson.

Lehigh will play a money game with schollies... Pards will too.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Just checked... I had Lehigh #13 in my final regular season poll, and #8 following the playoffs. In fact, of my final top 10 teams, only four are in my current top ten: NDSU, SHSU, Stony Brook, and Towson.

Lehigh will play a money game with schollies... Pards will too.

Based on that Lehigh was probably about where they are now in your ranking at this time last year. Interesting...

Lehigh will not play FBS money games imo. They might play the occasional regional FBS game but nothing more. No reason to sell out for money you really don't need.

[ngineer]

I'm kind of stunned how much thought is wasted on talking about polls on this site. The whole reason I stopped watching FBS football was that the polls mattered. Who cares where Lehigh is ranked? The only time it matters is when the committee seeds the tournament and even then, I doubt they are looking at many of these polls at all. Does any one believe any voter seriously watches enough game footage to accurately rank these teams? Coaches aren't looking at any team that isn't on their schedule, and there is a strong incentive to vote up conference teams to improve their own strength of schedule.

What he said....In the famous words of Mr. Natural...Polls, "...don't mean sheeeeeeeeet!"

That said. Lehigh has shown it can play with all comers over the past 2 1/2 years. You dance who brung you to the dance. LU has beaten everyone it has faced. You can't ask them to do any more. People can argue 'style points" all they want, but the subjectivity is what makes polls meaningless. Why should LSU have dropped after beating Towson by 16 points? I'm sure a lot of players on that team took Towson lightly and weren't as focused as their coaches wanted.....but how do you measure that? You can't and shouldn't. Most schedules are made years in advance. What was once a rising power two years earlier, may turnout to be a 'cupcake'. Can't do anything about that. I haven't seen too many of the traditional "powers" in FCS penalized for playing all sorts of D-II and NAIA schools in the past. Lehigh hasn't played a D-II school in decades. They've beaten all opponents this year, and should they stumble, then penalize them. But don't penalize them for winnng.

[Catbooster]

I'm kind of stunned how much thought is wasted on talking about polls on this site. The whole reason I stopped watching FBS football was that the polls mattered. Who cares where Lehigh is ranked? The only time it matters is when the committee seeds the tournament and even then, I doubt they are looking at many of these polls at all. Does any one believe any voter seriously watches enough game footage to accurately rank these teams? Coaches aren't looking at any team that isn't on their schedule, and there is a strong incentive to vote up conference teams to improve their own strength of schedule.

Yes, the polls are fairly meaningless since we have playoffs, but I like threads like this. Like you said, no one can watch all the games. And being out west I get no exposure to these teams other than discussions like this or articles on web sites. So I like threads that review teams' records and compare them as it helps me to be more informed about other teams. Besides, it's something to talk about related to football.

I try not to base my rankings on previous years, but you have to (at least to some degree) at the beginning of the season. For me, Lehigh has drifted down since the beginning of the year (21 this week on my poll), Albany has raised a couple ranks (18) and Villanova was one of the teams I almost added this week.

To use Villanove as an example, they weren't ranked on any polls at the beginning of the year (based on last year). I think it's easy to overlook a team like Villanova when they weren't on the radar to begin with - they haven't played any teams that made me sit up and take notice. If it wasn't for discussions like this, I might not have been considering them this week. And this thread will have me taking a hard look at them when I work on the poll this weekend.

[Catbooster]

What he said....In the famous words of Mr. Natural...Polls, "...don't mean sheeeeeeeeet!"

That said. Lehigh has shown it can play with all comers over the past 2 1/2 years. You dance who brung you to the dance. LU has beaten everyone it has faced. You can't ask them to do any more. People can argue 'style points" all they want, but the subjectivity is what makes polls meaningless. Why should LSU have dropped after beating Towson by 16 points? I'm sure a lot of players on that team took Towson lightly and weren't as focused as their coaches wanted.....but how do you measure that? You can't and shouldn't. Most schedules are made years in advance. What was once a rising power two years earlier, may turnout to be a 'cupcake'. Can't do anything about that. I haven't seen too many of the traditional "powers" in FCS penalized for playing all sorts of D-II and NAIA schools in the past. Lehigh hasn't played a D-II school in decades. They've beaten all opponents this year, and should they stumble, then penalize them. But don't penalize them for winnng.

I tend to agree with you about style points. That being said, Lehigh has dropped in my poll since the beginning of the year. That was not due to penalizing them for winning, but because I felt I needed to make room to move someone up. In the early weeks I did a lot of shuffling teams around.

[LEHIGH61]

Delaware is pretty doggone cupcakey, in case you haven't noticed.
I had all 3 teams ranked this week, Albany, then Lehigh, then Villanova. VU has definitely been a surprise so far this year. I think Albany is a solid team - as previously mentioned they hung in there with YSU and have blown the doors off all their lesser competition. Lehigh's spot in many people's rankings may be based somewhat on last season. They're undefeated this year which has to be respected but they aren't giving any doubters reason to believe either with tight games against a cupcake schedule.

[danefan]

Here's the big question in my mind that only time will tell us the answer to (potentially)....

If Albany loses one game in the NEC we all know they'll drop out of whatever Top 25 they make it into.

What happens to Lehigh if they lose a game in the Patriot League? Even more sticky is what happens if they lose to Colgate or Fordham - teams that got demolished OOC by Albany and Villanova, respectively?

[WileECoyote06]

Here's the big question in my mind that only time will tell us the answer to (potentially)....

If Albany loses one game in the NEC we all know they'll drop out of whatever Top 25 they make it into.

What happens to Lehigh if they lose a game in the Patriot League? Even more sticky is what happens if they lose to Colgate or Fordham - teams that got demolished OOC by Albany and Villanova, respectively?

It's highly dependent on where Albany is ranked if they lose. If they can make it to the 10 - 15 range they won't be in any danger of dropping out as their body of work will begin to outweigh individual game losses. But if they go out on Saturday and lose, then yes they may be in jeopardy and it may take a 2-3 game winning streak to get back into the poll.

As I said earlier, teams in the 'power' conferences are going to get the benefit of the doubt; non-power conference teams are not.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Here's the big question in my mind that only time will tell us the answer to (potentially)....

If Albany loses one game in the NEC we all know they'll drop out of whatever Top 25 they make it into.

What happens to Lehigh if they lose a game in the Patriot League? Even more sticky is what happens if they lose to Colgate or Fordham - teams that got demolishnned OOC by Albany and Villanova, respectively?

So what if Lehigh loses a league game for the first time in 3 years? (As long as it's not Laffy) They'll be 10-1 and sitting pretty. Colgate is playing solid ball right now and will likely be even more formidable come mid-November. SBU struggled with them. Also, Villanova demolished Fordham? It was 27-13. Now, Temple demolished Nova and we stink.

What did you think of LU's schedule last year. The two best teams Albany has played are YSU and Colgate imo.

[LU73]

Here's the big question in my mind that only time will tell us the answer to (potentially)....

If Albany loses one game in the NEC we all know they'll drop out of whatever Top 25 they make it into.

What happens to Lehigh if they lose a game in the Patriot League? Even more sticky is what happens if they lose to Colgate or Fordham - teams that got demolished OOC by Albany and Villanova, respectively?

Right now, I would say there is a 0% chance that Lehigh loses to Fordham this year. There is probably a slightly higher chance of a loss to Colgate.

[Dane96]

Colgate is not better than Maine or Monmouth IMHO.

That said, if Colgate is considered a "best team", then UA handled them.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Colgate is not better than Maine or Monmouth IMHO.

That said, if Colgate is considered a "best team", then UA handled them.

Albany should be happy they handled them. At the same time, I highly doubt SBU is concerned about having to rally to beat the Raiders.

All three of these teams are very good imo. All 3 can win mutiple playoff games.

FYI my AGS Poll this week...
#7 SBU
#10 Albany
#11 Lehigh

From a phone

[Engineer86]

I tend to agree with you about style points. That being said, Lehigh has dropped in my poll since the beginning of the year. That was not due to penalizing them for winning, but because I felt I needed to make room to move someone up. In the early weeks I did a lot of shuffling teams around.

This is something I have seen over the years. Teams like Lehigh always are the team to moves down to move a "power" league team up, and the are the type of team that is just below where one drops the power league team to. Look a team like Samford that is one that people were moving up early in the year, but the were beating nothing impressive. If you are moving teams down that are winning then you are voting based on style points.

That said I will grant you a few slots down is not material since judgement changes, but many in this string are basically saying Lehigh is not winning by enough. If it was just the schedule itself and who they are beating why rate them that high to start with. Again, I am not saying Lehigh should be climbing, but there are enough teams losing that they should not be sliding.

[VUCats02]

So what if Lehigh loses a league game for the first time in 3 years? (As long as it's not Laffy) They'll be 10-1 and sitting pretty. Colgate is playing solid ball right now and will likely be even more formidable come mid-November. SBU struggled with them. Also, Villanova demolished Fordham? It was 27-13. Now, Temple demolished Nova and we stink.

What did you think of LU's schedule last year. The two best teams Albany has played are YSU and Colgate imo.

Guarantee if Nova played Temple tomorrow, it'd be a lot closer of a game. John Robertson didn't even start that game and the defense is 20 times (no exaggeration) better.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Guarantee if Nova played Temple tomorrow, it'd be a lot closer of a game. John Robertson didn't even start that game and the defense is 20 times (no exaggeration) better.

But that's just it. I could say "if Lehigh played Princeton tomorrow, it would be a wipeout," but it shouldn't matter. You play who you play when you play them, and teams grow during the year.

[VUCats02]

When all is said and done, I think Lehigh and Albany will be fine. Nova's fate, in my opinion, rests solely on this weekend. This Richmond game is basically a playoff game for Nova. I just don't see Nova taking 2 out of ODU, Delaware, JMU, Towson.

[VUCats02]

But that's just it. I could say "if Lehigh played Princeton tomorrow, it would be a wipeout," but it shouldn't matter. You play who you play when you play them, and teams grow during the year.

I was just addressing TUowl's comment - just a little philly chatter, nothing else.

[Lehigh'98]

Based solely on this year, I'd have Albany and Nova ahead of Lehigh. As long as all 3 keep winning an make playoffs, I still give Lehigh a good chance to beat either in a playoff game. Winning, even against lesser teams becomes a habit. That's the beauty of the FCS though, it's settled on the field.

[ngineer]

Regarding Colgate's loss to Albany, it is not unusual for teams to start slow and after the first few weeks hit their stride, whether it be coaching transition or new players. Losing early and getting better is okay. Losing late is bad. Colgate has been a notoriously slow starting team for some reason. They have already shown their improvement in recent weeks with the narrow loss to SBU and the solid win over Yale.

[van]

When all is said and done, I think Lehigh and Albany will be fine. Nova's fate, in my opinion, rests solely on this weekend. This Richmond game is basically a playoff game for Nova. I just don't see Nova taking 2 out of ODU, Delaware, JMU, Towson.

Well, stick a fork in them now.

[ngineer]

Albany almost pulled a "Lafayette" today losing to Bryant at half time. I imagine ol' Ford blistered the paint off the wall of the locker room based upon the final outcome.

[HailSzczur]

Well, stick a fork in them now.

I ain't sticking a fork in them yet, just need to go 3/5. It won't be easy, but it still doable. Ga St should be 1. I honestly don't know what to think of Delaware right now..... If we can win those we need 1 out of JMU, ODU, and Towson. It could still happen

[danefan]

Albany almost pulled a "Lafayette" today losing to Bryant at half time. I imagine ol' Ford blistered the paint off the wall of the locker room based upon the final outcome.

Danes looked horrible in the first half. 3 turnovers and 3 missed field goals.

Stats and score don't show it though so it will be interesting to see how the TSN and Coaches voters view it. We know they don't do much research so maybe that will work to our advantage this week. ;)

Maine crushing Delaware helps us.

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

So. Where do you guys have the Richmond Spiders now? xeyebrowx

[UNH Fanboi]

I ain't sticking a fork in them yet, just need to go 3/5. It won't be easy, but it still doable. Ga St should be 1. I honestly don't know what to think of Delaware right now..... If we can win those we need 1 out of JMU, ODU, and Towson. It could still happen

Definitely doable.

[Engineer86]

So. Where do you guys have the Richmond Spiders now? xeyebrowx

A one score game with ODU and a loss to UVA, similar résumé to UNH?. Should be in

[danefan]

A one score game with ODU and a loss to UVA, similar résumé to UNH?. Should be in

Definitely. I don't vote, but I'd be comfortable with Richmond in the middle of the top 25 somewhere.

[Nova09]

So. Where do you guys have the Richmond Spiders now? xeyebrowx

I would absolutely have richmond ranked if I voted, but LFN has already declared you a bad caa team so I guess early losses to FBS and top 3 FCS have doomed your season.

[van]

I ain't sticking a fork in them yet, just need to go 3/5. It won't be easy, but it still doable. Ga St should be 1. I honestly don't know what to think of Delaware right now..... If we can win those we need 1 out of JMU, ODU, and Towson. It could still happen

3/5 is doable, but might not be enough, probably will be a number of 7-4 teams competing for that last spot.

[HailSzczur]

3/5 is doable, but might not be enough, probably will be a number of 7-4 teams competing for that last spot.

With the wins we'll need to get into the playoffs, I think we'll have a good enough resume if we reach 7 wins. A win at ODU this weekend would go a long way towards that. A man can always hope.

[Nova09]

I no longer care about these teams in relation to each other, but never thought things would be clearer for nova than the others at this point--win 2 games and make the playoffs. What do we make of Albany? Can they get an at large at 9-2 with Youngstown slipping and Wagner not exactly carrying a strong reputation? And how confident would Lehigh be at 10-1? With the history of the PL I'd automatically think that's a playoff team, but they really do not have a good resume at all. Do they have a chance at all if they drop the last 2?

[Engineer86]

I no longer care about these teams in relation to each other, but never thought things would be clearer for nova than the others at this point--win 2 games and make the playoffs. What do we make of Albany? Can they get an at large at 9-2 with Youngstown slipping and Wagner not exactly carrying a strong reputation? And how confident would Lehigh be at 10-1? With the history of the PL I'd automatically think that's a playoff team, but they really do not have a good resume at all. Do they have a chance at all if they drop the last 2?

At 9-2, I am not comfortable at all with Lehigh's chances. If they drop the next two based on how close they have kept all the other games I have a tough time arguing for them at 9-2. However, Lehigh has consistently surprised teams in the playoffs that thought they had an easy draw. If Lehigh gets one more win, they are in and if they play to potential a dangerous

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

I no longer care about these teams in relation to each other, but never thought things would be clearer for nova than the others at this point--win 2 games and make the playoffs. What do we make of Albany? Can they get an at large at 9-2 with Youngstown slipping and Wagner not exactly carrying a strong reputation? And how confident would Lehigh be at 10-1? With the history of the PL I'd automatically think that's a playoff team, but they really do not have a good resume at all. Do they have a chance at all if they drop the last 2?

Lehigh is safely in, and deservedly so, at 10-1. I can't see them getting in at 9-2.

[RichH2]

LU at 9-2 absent a raft of losses by other at large contenders would likely not get in.

[ngineer]

LU at 9-2 absent a raft of losses by other at large contenders would likely not get in.

I would agree unless both losses were by a point or so. Let's hope we take care of business next Saturday and we can sleep more comfortably.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

I would agree unless both losses were by a point or so. Let's hope we take care of business next Saturday and we can sleep more comfortably.



This might sound terrible but I really don't care too much about next week. Sure an undefeated season would be great but I just want LU to beat Lafayette and earn a bid. Besides, I think Colgate and Lehigh can both do damage in the playoffs which would shut up a lot of people.

[RichH2]

Abit torn but I prefer winning PL if I have to go with going 1-1. Lets win both so we can get to 20.

[Twentysix]

This might sound terrible but I really don't care too much about next week. Sure an undefeated season would be great but I just want LU to beat Lafayette and earn a bid. Besides, I think Colgate and Lehigh can both do damage in the playoffs which would shut up a lot of people.

xlolx Maybe if Colgates play in game is a home game versus the University of South Dakota or Idaho State University. xlolx Keep dreaming. I am afraid big sky tyrant Northern Colorado would slaughter Colgate.

[danefan]

Albany is out unless Wagner loses and we win out to win the AQ.

we don't deserve an at-large. We have no good wins and a loss in the NEC (blowout might I add).

[Engineer86]

xlolx Maybe if Colgates play in game is a home game versus the University of South Dakota or Idaho State University. xlolx Keep dreaming. I am afraid big sky tyrant Northern Colorado would slaughter Colgate.

Is this what you were talking about Lehigh TU Owl? It will never happen, even wins on the field have not gotten in the way of xblahxxblahxxblahxxblahxxblahx

[RichH2]

86
Just something we have gotten used to. Some SoCon and western power conference fans will never change regardless of how often we beat them. Relish the attitude makes the wins that much more satisfying.

[ngineer]

I think these 'commentators' are showing their insecurity about possibly having to face Lehigh and/or Colgate, knowing both schools fully capable of beating any conference's champion, but having to face the 'ignominious' reality that has happened numerous times over the past 12 years.

[taper]

I think these 'commentators' are showing their insecurity about possibly having to face Lehigh and/or Colgate, knowing both schools fully capable of beating any conference's champion, but having to face the 'ignominious' reality that has happened numerous times over the past 12 years.

Like the 5 playoff appearances since 2000? In which you have a total of 4 wins, never more than 1 a year, and played all but 2 games on the road? You're a good team that can occasionally force an upset, but don't think any top team is afraid of playing you.

[RichH2]

Another NDSU voice heard from. I think most of them are preprogramed to arrogance. For now , entitled to crow with excellent team but cycle will change. Imagine they'll be just the same at 4-7.

[Engineer86]

Like the 5 playoff appearances since 2000? In which you have a total of 4 wins, never more than 1 a year, and played all but 2 games on the road? You're a good team that can occasionally force an upset, but don't think any top team is afraid of playing you.

Lets do some math you play 5 first round games and you win 4 of them. I think that is an 80% winning percentage. Yep, I will take that. I haven't seen any Lehigh fan on hear saying they will win a NC, but I have seen many Others on here saying they want Lehigh in the first round. Let me help you a 20% winning percentage against Lehih in the first round is not great.

[taper]

The claim was made that Lehigh and Colgate could beat any conference champ and *I'm* the arrogant one? Lehigh is a good team that gave us a great game last year, but the 2 teams together have a grand total of 1 win over full scholarship schools this year.

[RichH2]

We've done pretty well vs conference champs. Agree perhaps a bit overstated but I seriously doubt we would not give most a tough game. NC, no not for us yet but we will get there.

[Engineer86]

The claim was made that Lehigh and Colgate could beat any conference champ and *I'm* the arrogant one? Lehigh is a good team that gave us a great game last year, but the 2 teams together have a grand total of 1 win over full scholarship schools this year.

Plain and simple the Patriot League has shown consistently that they can and have knocked off various power conference champs. For so many people to continue to come on here and say they can not compete is just ridiculous.