Sagarin rankings - 9/30

[UAalum72]

Sagarin FCS ranking - 9/30
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt12.htm
Teams still not connected, not sure this ranking is improving

Rank Overall Team
1 50 North Dakota State
2 79 Youngstown State
3 83 Cal Poly-SLO
4 88 Harvard
5 92 Northern Iowa
6 94 Georgia Southern
7 95 Wofford
8 99 Illinois State
9 101 James Madison
11 102 Eastern Washington
12 106 Old Dominion
13 108 South Dakota State
14 111 Albany
15 112 Delaware
16 113 New Hampshire
17 115 Appalachian State
18 116 Sam Houston State
19 117 Montana
20 118 Northern Arizona
21 120 Villanova
22 121 Montana State
23 124 Central Arkansas
24 127 McNeese State
25 130 Stony Brook

Conference Rank
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbc12.htm

13 MISSOURI VALLEY
14 COLONIAL
15 BIG SKY
16 SOUTHERN
17 SOUTHLAND
18 OHIO VALLEY
19 IVY LEAGUE
20 PATRIOT LEAGUE
21 NORTHEAST
22 BIG SOUTH
23 MID-EASTERN
24 SOUTHWESTERN
25 PIONEER

[HailSzczur]

It's getting there. A few head scratchers still, but its getting closer to accurate I'd say. I think the Top 25 matches about 23 or 24 of my AGS picks. Once the teams get all connected I'll be very interested to see the results

[Engineer86]

I have Harvard, Montana and McNeese out. Harvard at 4, come on man!

[HensRock]

Sagarin FCS ranking - 9/30
...
15 112 Delaware
16 113 New Hampshire
...


That's the only glaring problem I see with it. Other than that, I think it's as good as any other at this point.

[tingly]

Compare a bunch of ratings. The ratings on the left best match the average. http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm

[danefan]

That's the only glaring problem I see with it. Other than that, I think it's as good as any other at this point.

You don't see Harvard at 4 as a glaring error?

[Engineer86]

You don't see Harvard at 4 as a glaring error?

This^^^

[MTfan4life]

You don't see Harvard at 4 as a glaring error?

I see:
The teams are NOT WELL-CONNECTED

and realize the poll has no substance to get worked up over quite yet.

[danefan]

I see:

and realize the poll has no substance to get worked up over quite yet.

I don't disagree. I was responding to someone who agreed with the ranking.

[tingly]

Harvard might be even higher had Cal Poly not played San Diego. Oct. 14th is when to take computers more seriously.

[BlueHenSinfonian]

You don't see Harvard at 4 as a glaring error?

4 might be a bit high, and it's hard to get a good handle on Ivy teams due to the way they schedule, but Harvard did completely dominate Holy Cross on both sides of the ball this weekend.

[danefan]

4 might be a bit high, and it's hard to get a good handle on Ivy teams due to the way they schedule, but Harvard did completely dominate Holy Cross on both sides of the ball this weekend.

0-4 Holy Cross isn't exactly a good measure of anything.

[McNeese72]

I have Harvard, Montana and McNeese out. Harvard at 4, come on man!

What is helping us right now has been the win over Middle Tenn and what they have done since. Especially, the thrashing of Georgia Tech this weekend.

Doc

[woffordgrad94]

Any poll that ranks an Ivy League team that high is dubious at best.

[Professor Chaos]

Sagarin's computer likes NDSU a lot apparently. Even coming from an NDSU homer, it's eye-opening to see where he ranks the Bison in terms of some of the FBS conferences.

ACC: 6th of 13
Big East: 4th of 9
CUSA: 1st of 13
MAC: 1st of 14
MWC: 3rd of 11
Sun Belt: 1st of 11
WAC: 1st of 8

[Ivytalk]

0-4 Holy Cross isn't exactly a good measure of anything.

Chip on the shoulder, danefan?xblehx

[danefan]

Chip on the shoulder, danefan?xblehx

Nah. Albany is too high in his too. I watched the Harvard game last week and while I won't argue against them potentially being a Top 25, they certainly aren't a Top 10 or even Top 15, let alone #4.

[Ivytalk]

Nah. Albany is too high in his too. I watched the Harvard game last week and while I won't argue against them potentially being a Top 25, they certainly aren't a Top 10 or even Top 15, let alone #4.

I had Harvard at #25 last week and will rank them again this week. Albany will ba a bit higher in my poll, but I think we could take you guys.

[HensRock]

You don't see Harvard at 4 as a glaring error?

Personally, I rank Harvard around 23. But I don't have a problem with Sagarin ranking them at #4 this early in the season because I know they will move as we get more data.

[darell1976]

Tough road for UND playing the top 5 of the BSC in a row. Losing to the #1 team (Cal Poly), next up #2 in the conference (EWU).

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

How is Harvard that high? I thought SOS was a big factor? It's not that I don't think Harvard is good, I do, I just am curious as to why the computers are calculating it this way.

[danefan]

How is Harvard that high? I thought SOS was a big factor? It's not that I don't think Harvard is good, I do, I just am curious as to why the computers are calculating it this way.

I've never understood it. The computers love the Ivys. It has to be because of some human opinion input at the start of the season which then becomes a self fulfilling prophecy as the season plays out. How else could they stay so high when thy have no major wins outside of league games.

[clawman]

Tough road for UND playing the top 5 of the BSC in a row. Losing to the #1 team (Cal Poly), next up #2 in the conference (EWU).

Thats no way to treat a new member:) We'll be nice to you when you come to Cheney... trust me I promise!
No really we got beat up prety good in the Montana game Saturday and I'm sure the team will be showing a lot of respect to your team ability to play power football.

[OhioHen]

Any poll that ranks an Ivy League team that high is dubious at best.

People, people, people - Sagarin IS NOT A POLL. It is a computer ranking, based in part on a SINGLE human's notion of how good the teams are BEFORE they play a game. His assumptions combined with results so far this season and the algorithm used put Harvard fourth on his list.

[srgrizizen]

I'm sure NAU will be perplexed to see UM ranked above them in these ratings.

[frozennorth]

People, people, people - Sagarin IS NOT A POLL. It is a computer ranking, based in part on a SINGLE human's notion of how good the teams are BEFORE they play a game. His assumptions combined with results so far this season and the algorithm used put Harvard fourth on his list.

if my single notion, you mean math formula, then sure. His actually opinion of any team has no bearing on the results, only the data.

Of course in any model there are implicit assumptions

[OhioHen]

if my single notion, you mean math formula, then sure. His actually opinion of any team has no bearing on the results, only the data.

Of course in any model there are implicit assumptions

His data has a starting point - defined by him. That's where the "notion of how good the teams are BEFORE they play a game" comes in. He doesn't start with everyone at "0" each year. He starts with Alabama at some number, Butler at some number, etc. There's opinion/assumption included in the starting point.

[MTfan4life]

His data has a starting point - defined by him. That's where the "notion of how good the teams are BEFORE they play a game" comes in. He doesn't start with everyone at "0" each year. He starts with Alabama at some number, Butler at some number, etc. There's opinion/assumption included in the starting point.

Very true. However, supposedly once the teams are "well connected," those starting ratings get thrown out the window.

[danefan]

Very true. However, supposedly once the teams are "well connected," those starting ratings get thrown out the window.

Then Harvard should drop like a rock. Somehow I don't think they will.

[darell1976]

Thats no way to treat a new member:) We'll be nice to you when you come to Cheney... trust me I promise!
No really we got beat up prety good in the Montana game Saturday and I'm sure the team will be showing a lot of respect to your team ability to play power football.

If you want to be nice just give us the W now. I have a feeling its not coming our way on Saturday. Our defense will be the main factor in the game. They suck it will be a blowout loss, if they play good...it will be a close loss.

[bojeta]

If you want to be nice just give us the W now. I have a feeling its not coming our way on Saturday. Our defense will be the main factor in the game. They suck it will be a blowout loss, if they play good...it will be a close loss.

I'm not crazy enough to pick UND over EWU this weekend, but I won't be surprised if they win. With the Big Sky so full of talent this year, It's all about matchups. I think UND might match up well to EWU, but I haven't had the time this season to really do the sort of evaluation I should. Anyhow, even though I picked EWU in the Big Sky Challenge, I hope I'm wrong and UND gets the W, though it may cost me a prize lol..

My picks:
Cal Poly over Weber
EWU over UND
PSU over ISU
MU over UNC
MSU over UCD
SUU over SAC

What I hope will happen:
Cal Poly over Weber
UND over EWU
ISU over PSU
MU over UNC
UCD over MSU
SAC over SUU

But alas.... "If wishes were horses, beggers would ride"

[Mr. C]

One of the flaws with Sagarin is that he doesn't utilize ALL games for his ratings. Any game played below Division I is NOT considered and that skews the ratings of FCS teams. One of the factors for Harvard might be point deferential of how badly the Crimson beat Holy Cross, compared to the other teams on the Holy Cross schedule. Perhaps it has to do with New Hampshire beating HC by 17 and Harvard beating HC by 49. New Hampshire has also played ODU and Delaware ... and Minnesota.

[Vitojr130]

One of the flaws with Sagarin is that he doesn't utilize ALL games for his ratings. Any game played below Division I is NOT considered and that skews the ratings of FCS teams. One of the factors for Harvard might be point deferential of how badly the Crimson beat Holy Cross, compared to the other teams on the Holy Cross schedule. Perhaps it has to do with New Hampshire beating HC by 17 and Harvard beating HC by 49. New Hampshire has also played ODU and Delaware ... and Minnesota.

Well then maybe teams should worry more about their strength of schedule and not schedule D2 teams. If they were to schedule a lower-skill FCS team, it would not only improve their SOS, but also raise their rankings. It would also be nice to have that kind of resume for when the playoff committee gets together to determine placements in the playoffs.

[tingly]

If D-I doesn't connect well to lower divisions, I wouldn't include them, either. He used to include UC Davis when they were D2. That one was a mystery.

[Mr. C]

If D-I doesn't connect well to lower divisions, I wouldn't include them, either. He used to include UC Davis when they were D2. That one was a mystery.

But if you don't use every game that is played, you can't have an accurate rating system.

[Hawk98]

I thought it was included as a game against the 'unrated' team at the bottom of the rankings.

Edit: I guess not, Sagarin says it's not ... must be thinking of some other rankings.

[UNIFanSince1983]

Does anyone know a place where I can find Sagarin sorted by the ELO-Chess rankings?

[MTfan4life]

Does anyone know a place where I can find Sagarin sorted by the ELO-Chess rankings?

massey comparison (http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm)

He has a separate column for Sagarin, Sagarin ELO, and Sagarin Predictor.

[UNH Fanboi]

But if you don't use every game that is played, you can't have an accurate rating system.

The inclusion of D2 games would make very little difference. First of all, there aren't that many FCS-D2 games, and almost of all them are wins that would not have much affect a team's rating even if they were taken into account. The few teams that do lose to D2 teams suck and end up getting table appropriate for losing most of their FCS games.

[UNIFanSince1983]

The inclusion of D2 games would make very little difference. First of all, there aren't that many FCS-D2 games, and almost of all them are wins that would not have much affect a team's rating even if they were taken into account. The few teams that do lose to D2 teams suck and end up getting table appropriate for losing most of their FCS games.

I know it is rare, but in 2006 we lost to a D2 team and finished 7-4. 1 Loss to a D2, 1 loss to an FBS, and 2 conference losses.

[tingly]

Sagarin ELO
1. Youngstown St, North Dakota St, Cal Poly, Illinois St, Montana St, 6. Northern Arizona, E. Kentucky, Old Dominion, Harvard, Wofford
11. Georgia So., James Madison, S. Dakota St, Appalachian St, Albany, 16. Tenn. St, E. Washington, New Hampshire, Lehigh, Villanova
21. No. Iowa, Citadel, McNeese St, Jacksonville St, Montana, 26. North Dakota, Delaware, S.F. Austin, Central Arkansas, Chattanooga
31. Stony Brook, Samford, Towson, Southern Utah, Tennessee Martin, 36. Bethune-Cookman, Sacramento St, UC Davis, E. Illinois, Brown
41. Sam Houston St, Indiana St, W. Illinois, S. Dakota, Richmond, 46. Coastal Carolina, Jacksonville, Duquesne, SE Louisiana, Alabama A&M

[MTfan4life]

I know it is rare, but in 2006 we lost to a D2 team and finished 7-4. 1 Loss to a D2, 1 loss to an FBS, and 2 conference losses.

In that same season, the Bobcats lost to DII Chadron State and ended up reaching the quarterfinals of the playoffs.

[Walkon79]

In that same season, the Bobcats lost to DII Chadron State and ended up reaching the quarterfinals of the playoffs.

But we had the win over Colorado the week before, so I think that's what got us in!!

Oh and beating the Griz :)

[MTfan4life]

But we had the win over Colorado the week before, so I think that's what got us in!!

Oh and beating the Griz :)

xlolx Check your record books. You didn't beat the Griz in 2006. Montana won that year 13-7. By the way, I was pointing out in that last post that good teams have lost to D-II teams before. Chadron State won 12 straight games that season. Sometimes you just face a really good Division II team. People don't understand how close the gap is some years because usually FCS teams play D-II teams in the mediocre to awful range. A 3 point win over D-II Central Washington was Montana's closest home game of the season in 2008 when we lost the NC to Richmond.

[darell1976]

I know it is rare, but in 2006 we lost to a D2 team and finished 7-4. 1 Loss to a D2, 1 loss to an FBS, and 2 conference losses.

That would us.xsmiley_wix

[darell1976]

Sagarin ELO
1. Youngstown St, North Dakota St, Cal Poly, Illinois St, Montana St, 6. Northern Arizona, E. Kentucky, Old Dominion, Harvard, Wofford
11. Georgia So., James Madison, S. Dakota St, Appalachian St, Albany, 16. Tenn. St, E. Washington, New Hampshire, Lehigh, Villanova
21. No. Iowa, Citadel, McNeese St, Jacksonville St, Montana, 26. North Dakota, Delaware, S.F. Austin, Central Arkansas, Chattanooga
31. Stony Brook, Samford, Towson, Southern Utah, Tennessee Martin, 36. Bethune-Cookman, Sacramento St, UC Davis, E. Illinois, Brown
41. Sam Houston St, Indiana St, W. Illinois, S. Dakota, Richmond, 46. Coastal Carolina, Jacksonville, Duquesne, SE Louisiana, Alabama A&M

What is ELO?

[tingly]

Electric Light Orchestra. Beats me, but someone wanted the list.

[darell1976]

Electric Light Orchestra. Beats me, but someone wanted the list.

That was my first guess of what it was.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system

Found it.

[Walkon79]

xlolx Check your record books. You didn't beat the Griz in 2006. Montana won that year 13-7. .

My Bad!!:o:o