AGS Top 25 - How They Fared Week 4

[superman7515]

As always, I hope this helps. If you see anything that is incorrect, let me know. For example, I've found that ESPN is not showing Big Sky games as conference matchups when it involves a team that was in the Great West last year, so I'm having to go through and double check those conference records. Just leave a note and I'll get it fixed. Good luck filling out this weeks poll ballots.

AGS Top 25 - How They Fared Week 4 (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AgtKAORz8z6vdEV6QlBqMTQ5dVpka0hfSUxHbGRyM EE)

[Engineer86]

Bump

[danefan]

Interesting......
Albany

1. beat the #22 team on the road by two scores (should have been three but Maine scored a late TD)
2. Played within the same margin against the #4 team that the #6 team did
3. Easily beat Colgate, which gave the #16 team a run for their money.


Seems that all adds up to being ranked at least as high as Stony Brook and arguably higher.

[wmmii]

As always, I hope this helps. If you see anything that is incorrect, let me know. For example, I've found that ESPN is not showing Big Sky games as conference matchups when it involves a team that was in the Great West last year, so I'm having to go through and double check those conference records. Just leave a note and I'll get it fixed. Good luck filling out this weeks poll ballots.

AGS Top 25 - How They Fared Week 4 (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AgtKAORz8z6vdEV6QlBqMTQ5dVpka0hfSUxHbGRyM EE)

thanks for all your effort on these each week, makes voting much easier. Good game last night, the Hens looked sharp, sorry I cannot say the Tribe defense did.........

[Engineer86]

Isn't YSU only 1-0 vs top 25 or is Pitt counted in that. Albany is not yet in top 25, likely will be, but weren't when they played YSU?

[penguinpower]

I think Albany was ranked in the AGS poll when they played YSU

[Engineer86]

I think Albany was ranked in the AGS poll when they played YSU

Ah, then dropped. Got it. My bad

[McLeansvilleAppFan]

I think the App State win streak is incorrect. Otherwise I appreciate what you are doing and a great job of making all this info easy to read.

[Engineer86]

I appreciate what you are doing and a great job of making all this info easy to read.

This work is a must view before voting IMO. Great job!

[colonelblitz]

According to the OVC site Eastern Ill beat Murray state in OT. 50-49

[asumike83]

As always, thanks supe! This is such a useful tool when filling out a ballot.

[Redwyn]

Interesting......
Albany

1. beat the #22 team on the road by two scores (should have been three but Maine scored a late TD)
2. Played within the same margin against the #4 team that the #6 team did
3. Easily beat Colgate, which gave the #16 team a run for their money.


Seems that all adds up to being ranked at least as high as Stony Brook and arguably higher.

We usually agree about a lot of stuff....but no. Your argument attempts to extrapolate performance margins and superimpose them on another team. It's been proven time and time again to be an inaccurate comparison.

What is true is the following:
1. Albany is a top 25 team, and is playing very well this year. They took out a ranked opponent, and went toe to toe with another. Given the scholarship disparity, that makes them even more impressive.

2. Stony Brook has 3 wins on its resume, with its one loss an impressive stand against Syracuse. Of its 3 wins, two were downright dominating, and not ever close. The third was sloppy and turnover prone, but still a win despite 21 points allowed off turnovers. After yet another turnover to TD in the beginning of the 2nd half, we limited Colgate to 3 offensive points for the rest of the game, scoring 2 touchdowns ourselves. Good teams are those that can win even after playing a terrible game. We won, but I hope we never have to show that quality ever again.

There is no criteria at all that would allow me to rank Albany above Stony Brook, though I'd be quick to agree that ranks even at week 4 are just arbitrary anyway. What can easily be concluded is that both teams are the class of their conferences this year yet again, and it should be a great match-up in the playoffs. What can also be concluded is that SBU should give Army (0-4) all it can handle next week...and maybe even win.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Personally, I don't read too much in the close win over Colgate. A classic "sandwich game", and Biddle is one of the great coaches of FCS. SBU won the game. It doesn't make Albany better.

Albany will absolutely be in my Top 25.

[danefan]

We usually agree about a lot of stuff....but no. Your argument attempts to extrapolate performance margins and superimpose them on another team. It's been proven time and time again to be an inaccurate comparison.

What is true is the following:
1. Albany is a top 25 team, and is playing very well this year. They took out a ranked opponent, and went toe to toe with another. Given the scholarship disparity, that makes them even more impressive.

2. Stony Brook has 3 wins on its resume, with its one loss an impressive stand against Syracuse. Of its 3 wins, two were downright dominating, and not ever close. The third was sloppy and turnover prone, but still a win despite 21 points allowed off turnovers. After yet another turnover to TD in the beginning of the 2nd half, we limited Colgate to 3 offensive points for the rest of the game, scoring 2 touchdowns ourselves. Good teams are those that can win even after playing a terrible game. We won, but I hope we never have to show that quality ever again.

There is no criteria at all that would allow me to rank Albany above Stony Brook, though I'd be quick to agree that ranks even at week 4 are just arbitrary anyway. What can easily be concluded is that both teams are the class of their conferences this year yet again, and it should be a great match-up in the playoffs. What can also be concluded is that SBU should give Army (0-4) all it can handle next week...and maybe even win.

The best comparison we have of Stony Brook versus Albany this year is a common opponent.

Albany won by 17 in a blowout.
Stony Brook won by 1.

The last head to head of Albany and SBU was a three point loss that could have gone either way and all the SBU fans know it.

This isn't a knock n Stony Brook. I just don't understand the great disparity in ranking at this point. Both should be Top 20 teams.

[clickclack]

The best comparison we have of Stony Brook versus Albany this year is a common opponent.

Albany won by 17 in a blowout.
Stony Brook won by 1.

The last head to head of Albany and SBU was a three point loss that could have gone either way and all the SBU fans know it.

This isn't a knock n Stony Brook. I just don't understand the great disparity in ranking at this point. Both should be Top 20 teams.

Let's SMASH Monmouth this week...if we take care of our business, no choice but to LOVE us long time..

[danefan]

Let's SMASH Monmouth this week...if we take care of our business, no choice but to LOVE us long time..

You're right. Forget everything I said. Everyone keep ignoring Albany. Happy to sneak up on your team in the playoffs.

[Redwyn]

You're right. Forget everything I said. Everyone keep ignoring Albany. Happy to sneak up on your team in the playoffs.

This has nothing to do with ignoring another team. It's about the flawed logic of comparing outcomes of common opponents to rank programs.

1) A sample size of 1 is terrible, and is never significant even if you won by 50 and we lost by 50. If I got up at a research conference and talked about my research findings on 1 rat, I'd be laughed out of the room. I would have no right to accuse them of being "homers" towards the null hypothesis.

2) If your logic is correct, let's translate this to Duke vs. #16 Louisville. Duke, a historically bad team who isn't much better this season, beat FIU by 20 in week 1. However, FIU then went on to ONLY lose by 7 to #16 Louisville in week 4. Thus - by your logic - Duke is better than the #16 team in the country (::NOTTT::). There are literally dozens of other comparisons you can make by this, and they're all equally flawed.

3) Your logic completely ignores the obvious improvement that teams go through as the season progresses. This is manifest in depth chart changes, play refinement, and team chemistry. It also ignores the concept that some offensive schemes are built to put up different types of numbers on different defenses. Albany is better in week 4 than in week 1, and so is SBU and Colgate. However, rates of improvement aren't equal.

4) Your theory also ignores concepts such as overlooking opponents, playing sandwich games, the week one let down, and schedule emphasis. It's quite likely that SBU prepared more for Army this week than Colgate, the clear perceived lesser opponent of weeks 2-4 (Syracuse, Colgate, Army).

NO ONE is denying that Albany should be a ranked program, and I put them at #22 this week, with SBU at #15, up one due to the Montana loss. However, your reasoning is absolutely incorrect as to why Albany should be ranked. The reason why is that Albany is a good team who has beaten good opponents.

[RichH2]

Thanks again. A must see for all in poll.

[BlueHenSinfonian]

Eastern Illinois is wrong - the beat Murray State 50-49 in OT

[danefan]

This has nothing to do with ignoring another team. It's about the flawed logic of comparing outcomes of common opponents to rank programs.

1) A sample size of 1 is terrible, and is never significant even if you won by 50 and we lost by 50. If I got up at a research conference and talked about my research findings on 1 rat, I'd be laughed out of the room. I would have no right to accuse them of being "homers" towards the null hypothesis.

2) If your logic is correct, let's translate this to Duke vs. #16 Louisville. Duke, a historically bad team who isn't much better this season, beat FIU by 20 in week 1. However, FIU then went on to ONLY lose by 7 to #16 Louisville in week 4. Thus - by your logic - Duke is better than the #16 team in the country (::NOTTT::). There are literally dozens of other comparisons you can make by this, and they're all equally flawed.

3) Your logic completely ignores the obvious improvement that teams go through as the season progresses. This is manifest in depth chart changes, play refinement, and team chemistry. It also ignores the concept that some offensive schemes are built to put up different types of numbers on different defenses. Albany is better in week 4 than in week 1, and so is SBU and Colgate. However, rates of improvement aren't equal.

4) Your theory also ignores concepts such as overlooking opponents, playing sandwich games, the week one let down, and schedule emphasis. It's quite likely that SBU prepared more for Army this week than Colgate, the clear perceived lesser opponent of weeks 2-4 (Syracuse, Colgate, Army).

NO ONE is denying that Albany should be a ranked program, and I put them at #22 this week, with SBU at #15, up one due to the Montana loss. However, your reasoning is absolutely incorrect as to why Albany should be ranked. The reason why is that Albany is a good team who has beaten good opponents.

A lot of people are......

[danefan]

The transitive property does not work in college football. By your logic, North Dakota should be ranked ahead of EWU, since North Dakota beat Sac State which beat Colorado which beat Washington State which beat Eastern Washington. It doesn't work that way. If anything, it's called an opinion - neither right nor wrong, and just like something else, everyone has one.

I'm suggesting Albany would beat Stony Brook by 16. That would be a transitive argument. All I'm saying is lets look at the resumes and compare. There's only one head to head and Albany easily gets edge. That's not transitive. That's comparative.

[ngineer]

The best comparison we have of Stony Brook versus Albany this year is a common opponent.

Albany won by 17 in a blowout.
Stony Brook won by 1.

The last head to head of Albany and SBU was a three point loss that could have gone either way and all the SBU fans know it.

This isn't a knock n Stony Brook. I just don't understand the great disparity in ranking at this point. Both should be Top 20 teams.

No disagreement from me that both Albany and SBU are top 20 teams. However, 'head to head' scores can be very misleading as we know unless you drill down and see what really happened on the field. Especially with young men who from week to week seem to make us elders scratch their heads since we forget the various 'diversions' and issues that can impact the quallity of ther plahy from week to week.

[Engineer86]

A lot of people are......

I don't think anyone is. Maybe not as high as you would like, but, you just need to keep winning. Good team that should be ranked and definitely will be at this point.

[Twentysix]

Thanks for doing this, it helps so much when doing polls.

[bjtheflamesfan]

A lot of people are......


Got any names to back that up?

(for the record I have Albany ranked this week...not above Stony Brook but definitely ranked)

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

Surprise, surprise - my early upset pic to win the OVC still hanging on by a thread! Don't let me down EIU Panthers! :) And congrats on what seems like it must been an exciting win. Gonna be a lot harder games, though, in the OVC this year I think. EKU still the odds on favorite to win the OVC I guess.

[danefan]

Got any names to back that up?

(for the record I have Albany ranked this week...not above Stony Brook but definitely ranked)

We'll see tomorrow I guess.

[JMUNJ08]

Bump

[Twentysix]

Got any names to back that up?

(for the record I have Albany ranked this week...not above Stony Brook but definitely ranked)

SBU is ranked 1 spot above albany in my poll. Both are ranked fairly high.

[Dane96]

2 spots for me...both high as well.

Lehigh in the vicinity.

[MTfan4life]

Eastern Illinois beat Murray State 50-49 in OT, just fyi. The sheet says 42-49 loss.

Here's the link:

box score (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/boxscore?gid=201209220120)

[superman7515]

Thanks. ESPN changed that score 3 times on me last night. I figured the last one was right, apparently not, haha.

[MSUBobcat]

Not a big deal but Cal Poly was @ UC-Davis not the other way around.

[mvemjsunpx]

Not a big deal but Cal Poly was @ UC-Davis not the other way around.

No they weren't. It was in SLO.

[MSUBobcat]

No they weren't. It was in SLO.

I stand corrected. I coulda swore I got this week's games from BSC's website when I did my weekly Big Sky predictions (where I also put CP @ UC-D) but I must have been crosseyed.

[mvemjsunpx]

I stand corrected. I coulda swore I got this week's games from BSC's website when I did my weekly Big Sky predictions (where I also put CP @ UC-D) but I must have been crosseyed.

I've noticed the Big Sky composite schedule often has errors (like when they said the Mesa/NoCo game was on a Friday).

[MSUBobcat]

I've noticed the Big Sky composite schedule often has errors (like when they said the Mesa/NoCo game was on a Friday).

Or that it shows Sac St beating NMSU 49-19. Not too reliable I guess.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Eastern Illinois beat Murray State 50-49 in OT, just fyi. The sheet says 42-49 loss.

Here's the link:

box score (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/boxscore?gid=201209220120)

If you had followed the CSJ scoreboard, you'd have gotten the correct score!

http://college-sports-source.appspot.com/ScoresMenu.html

[danefan]

Got any names to back that up?

(for the record I have Albany ranked this week...not above Stony Brook but definitely ranked)


We'll see tomorrow I guess.


http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?117653-The-Sports-Network-Top-25

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?117652-FCS-Coaches-Poll-Week-4