NCAA Predictions for every game left in the season

[ebemiss]

I've put together a page that shows every game left this season for FBS and FCS schools and predicts a winner and total score for each game. It's based on my current power rankings for each team. Here it is:

http://www.nationalsportsrankings.com/ncaafprojections

I'll update it each week as the rankings change. I thought some would be interested. The numbers and projections should get better as more game data is available.

[ElCid]

I've put together a page that shows every game left this season for FBS and FCS schools and predicts a winner and total score for each game. It's based on my current power rankings for each team.

Me thinks someone has too much time on their hands. Just kidding. Nice job. But how is your's different than Sagarin's. I sampled about 10 to compare and they are close to his, but not exact. Wondering what your methodoligy is. Or is it proprietary?;)

[McNeese72]

McNeese @ UTSA on 11/10/2012?????

[melloware13]

10-1 (7-1 CAA). I'll take that

[Professor Chaos]

I like the projected MVFC standings. Not sure how accurate they are but I like them.

NDSU 11-0 (8-0)
UNI 7-3 (7-1)
IlSU 8-3 (5-3)
YSU 8-3 (5-3)
InSU 6-4 (5-3)
SIU 5-6 (4-4)
USD 4-7 (3-5)
SDSU 4-7 (2-6)
MSU 2-9 (1-7)
WIU 1-9 (0-8)

[GATA_OneMoreTime]

Here's the projected SoCon ones (think I got them all right)

GSU: 9-2(7-1) (Champs on head to head with Woffie)
Woffie: 9-2(7-1)
Samford: 6-5 (5-3)
APP: 6-5 (4-4)
El Cid: 6-6 (4-4)
Furman: 5-6 (4-4)
Chatty: 5-6 (4-4)
Elon: 3-8 (1-7)
Western: 1-10 (0-8)

Not going to do the tiebreakers for the (4-4) teams

[WataugaDave]

Loss to Chattanooga? Lol no.

[CID1990]

Here's the projected SoCon ones (think I got them all right)

GSU: 9-2(7-1) (Champs on head to head with Woffie)
Woffie: 9-2(7-1)
Samford: 6-5 (5-3)
APP: 6-5 (4-4)
El Cid: 6-6 (4-4)
Furman: 5-6 (4-4)
Chatty: 5-6 (4-4)
Elon: 3-8 (1-7)
Western: 1-10 (0-8)

Not going to do the tiebreakers for the (4-4) teams

I think we win 7 this year. Prior to last week I had us at 6, but that was assuming we would lose to GSU. We need 5 more wins to get 7:

Fo sho:
VMI

Probable:
WCU and Elon

Tossup:
Sammy, Chatty and Furple

Would be another upset:
ASU and Wofford

Ooh it would be nice:
NCSU

If we go 2-1 in the tossup category then we get 7 wins and could be on the bubble. I think 2-1 against the other middle of the pack teams is doable.

[GATA_OneMoreTime]

I think you could be on the bubble depending on how the SoCon shakes out. If you only win 2 of the 3 tossups that's got your conference wins at 5. If you don't get ASU or Wofford and the 5 conference wins put you in 3rd or worse I think y'all would be possibly one of the first 4 out. I'd say at least 6 conference wins would give you a better shot though. Who knows what will happen this season. Strange things tend to happen with ASU, Wofford and GSU when they play the lower teams in the conference. (no disrespect meant to anyone)

[clenz]

I like the projected MVFC standings. Not sure how accurate they are but I like them.

NDSU 11-0 (8-0)
UNI 7-3 (7-1)
IlSU 8-3 (5-3)
YSU 8-3 (5-3)
InSU 6-4 (5-3)
SIU 5-6 (4-4)
USD 4-7 (3-5)
SDSU 4-7 (2-6)
MSU 2-9 (1-7)
WIU 1-9 (0-8)I will take what they are giving UNI for sure. I promise you that gets us into the playoffs, and we could be very dangerous by then....

[coover]

Your 14 points for Wyoming over Cal Poly seems just about right. But Cal Poly had a bye week, and Wyoming has been beat up pretty badly by both teams they've played. Poly should be healthy, while Wyoming is likely going with their #2 and maybe, their #3 QB. Several other Wyoming projected starters will play sparingly or not play at all.

Cal Poly thinks they can keep up with Wyoming. However, Poly trains at a little over 200 feet above the waves and the game in Laramie will take place at 7220 feet above the ocean. Poly will find about 23% less oxygen available than they generally breath, so they may not have enough at the end of the game to keep up.

It will be interesting to listen to the game (there is no TV) and I'd like to guarantee a Mustang win. I cannot, but what I can guarantee is that Wyoming won't know what's hit them and Cal Poly will give them one heck of a game! They will kick the frost out and burn the breeze, all while the bow wows will be knocked to their knees!

[ebemiss]

Rankings have been updated after this weekend's games.

http://nationalsportsrankings.com/ncaafprojections

[CID1990]

Rankings have been updated after this weekend's games.

http://nationalsportsrankings.com/ncaafprojections

Well what a difference one week makes!

After last week we were going to lose to everyone from Chatty to Samford. Now we only lose to NCSU and Wofford.

I would be happy with that result, btw

[ebemiss]

Updated rankings and projections through 9.22 games

http://nationalsportsrankings.com/ncaafprojections

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

Sweet! JMU undefeated in the CAA. I'd take that along with a seed. Don't see it happening though.

[sgt smash]

I know transitive property doesnt always work but why does NDSU beat UNI by 8 and Youngstown State by 17? Just yesterday YSU beat down UNI in a hard-fought 59 minute and 59 second game.

[darell1976]

UND to beat Cal Poly by .01 talk about a close game.

Cal Poly 26.18 North Dakota 26.19 52.37 0.00 9/29/2012

[ebemiss]

I know transitive property doesnt always work but why does NDSU beat UNI by 8 and Youngstown State by 17? Just yesterday YSU beat down UNI in a hard-fought 59 minute and 59 second game.

One game is on the road (-8) vs N. Iowa one game is at home vs Youngstown for N.Dakota St (-15). Taking away the home field advantage for a road game and adding it for a home game you end up with a 6 point swing. That's just about the difference in the two margins.

I just checked Youngstown would be about a two point favorite if they played NIowa at home again, and a point underdog on a neutral field. They are essentially even with each being a projected winner if they play on their home turf.

Again the difference in the margins seem like a lot but factoring in my home field advantage the teams are very close.

[sgt smash]

Ok thanks ebemiss. I never caught how much homefield was worth in your equation.

[Walkon79]

This has us losing to SUU and UM on the road and Eastern at home. Don't see it.

[HailSzczur]

Nova at 7-5 seems very doable. Losses to Maine, ODU, JMU, and UDel would be anyones pick, and I like the upset of Towson. Very solid

[HailSzczur]

I also love these projections because they have Temple losing out the rest of the season :)