Nick Saban Predicts Changes Will Leave Only 60-70 FBS Teams

[superman7515]

NCAA Division 1 Football To Shrink According To Nick Saban (http://www.rantsports.com/lacesout/2012/08/23/ncaa-division-i-football-to-shrink-according-to-nick-saban/)


Coach Nick Saban of the Alabama Crimson Tide said that NCAA Division I Football is going to shrink down to 60 to 70 teams.

I wrote about this probability in June while discussing the plight of Eastern Michigan out of the MAC Conference. Last week, we heard the announcement from Idaho that the Vandals would be going independent following the dismantling of WAC Football, which is the first step towards a drop down for the Vandals to 1AA, or FCS, as it’s now called.

Yesterday, Saban verified my suspicions in a radio interview discussing the SEC and the current state of big-time college football.

“Eventually in college football we’re going to have to get to 60 or 70 teams in this Division 1, whatever you want to call it. All these teams need to be playing each other,” he said.

Saban is correct, simply due to the influence and control that TV executives from CBS, ESPN and others now wield. Literally billions of dollars are being dished out for the TV rights to the power conferences and with those giant checks comes a certain understanding that every game needs to be important, crucial, compelling etc.

Unfortunately, the massive and rapid growth of the big-time conferences (SEC, ACC, BIG 12, BIG 10, PAC 12 and BIG EAST) could eventually lead to fewer football players having scholarships and an equally massive and rapid decline for the mid-major programs and many current FCS programs.


I can't find a decent article based on the radio interview, but basically what he said was that TV contracts are going to force the big conference schools to stop playing the small conference schools in the FBS and stop FBS vs FCS games altogether because it is bad for tv and not what they want for the money they are paying to broadcast these games. Once that stops, he predicts that a lot of schools bugets will end up way out of balance, forcing all but 60-70 FBS teams to move down to FCS or drop football altogether, while a lot of FCS teams are forced to drop to D2, D3, or gone altogether.

[The Eagle's Cliff]

I agree with Coach Saban, but I don't think the circumstances are dire for mid-majors and FCS. There are really only about 20 Big, Big Boys who are heads and shoulders above everyone else. The next group have attendance levels in the 40-48,000 range.

There will still be the same room on TV schedules for the mid-majors that exist now and there will also be a couple of at-large playoff bids in the future for mid-majors. The Big, Big Boys will have a share of over $1 Billion in revenue, but there is still about $200 Million to be shared by the next tier, which is $2.8 Million a piece divided by 70. $2.8 Million is nothing to LSU, Alabama, Ohio State, etc. To the rest of us, it covers the cost of 85 in-state scholarships.

[dbackjon]

Over on the CSN realignment board, a guy did a history of the top division of football has always had between 110-130 teams.

Plus, the top teams need other teams to play to get their 8 home games

[superman7515]

That was the point of what he was saying. The TV contracts are not going to allow an SEC vs CUSA game or PAC-12 vs Mountain West. They will require only major conference vs major conference games. That will prevent other schools from being able to make up their budget shortfalls with "money" games and force smaller schools out of the FBS into the FCS and those that use them at the FCS level to balance the bugets will be forced down to D2 or D3 as the budget shortfalls mount.

[Laker]

Over on the CSN realignment board, a guy did a history of the top division of football has always had between 110-130 teams.

Plus, the top teams need other teams to play to get their 8 home games

Yep- and they won't be able to handle many 6-6 seasons if they were only playing top 25 teams. They want a high win total.

[DFW HOYA]

Once that stops, he predicts that a lot of schools bugets will end up way out of balance, forcing all but 60-70 FBS teams to move down to FCS or drop football altogether, while a lot of FCS teams are forced to drop to D2, D3, or gone altogether.

How many times have we read that Div. I teams in the future will have to drop levels or drop football entirely? How many really have?

From those playing major college football in the 1972 season (and excepting the I-A/I-AA downgrade for certain conferences), just five I-A schools dropped football entirely over the years: Xavier, Tampa, Long Beach State, Pacific, and Fullerton State. Another six dropped to what is now I-AA: Villanova, Drake, Dayton, Davidson, Colgate, and Holy Cross. Just one dropped to D2: West Texas State. No one dropped to D3.

How many I-AA schools have dropped to D2 since 1995? None. D3? None.

I do think Saban's interest/prediction in the top six conferences scheduling amongst themselves may come to fruition, as they would set up a scheduling bureau to fill in open dates among those teams without the need to dip down to I-AA. Why does Rutgers need to play Howard if someone will set them up with TCU the same week and make it worth their while?

This would hurt the second tier of I-A the most (CUSA, MWC, MAC, and Sun Belt) as well as those I-AA teams who ramp up for guarantee games.

[frozennorth]

nick saban is a coach, not a business guy. His opinion isn't worth much on the issue. The top division will continue its rough status quo, and the number of d1 university will continue to grow slowly.

[superman7515]

From those playing major college football in the 1972 season (and excepting the I-A/I-AA downgrade for certain conferences), just five I-A schools dropped football entirely over the years: Xavier, Tampa, Long Beach State, Pacific, and Fullerton State. Another six dropped to what is now I-AA: Villanova, Drake, Dayton, Davidson, Colgate, and Holy Cross. Just one dropped to D2: West Texas State. No one dropped to D3. I'm not saying he's right or wrong, but if you're going to pick random dates then using that same logic 17 FBS schools could drop football altogether tomorrow and you could make this same argument that it never happens.


How many I-AA schools have dropped to D2 since 1995? None. D3? None. Winston-Salem State. But shouldn't you be comparing 1972 to 1972? As for dropping to D2 or D3, there are a few HBCU's having that discussion due to financial and APR issues. The APR at D1 now is going to be the APR at D2 in a few seasons, so some are looking at D3 because of the ability to cut costs and remain eligible.

[walliver]

What Saban is saying makes some sense. If the MAC, SunBelt, MWC, C-USA and WAC dropped to FCS, would there really be any difference? Would people who currently get excited about Akron vs. Ohio, or Troy vs. MTSU suddenly loose interest if these same games were played by teams with only 63 scholarships?

A few teams from C-USA may move up to the Big East every few years, but C-USA is going nowhere.

The real solution is for the NCAA to have ONE Division I, and allow teams that want to participate in the BCS nonsense to opt out of the Division I Championship and do their own thing.

[darell1976]

I wish for football and for basktball too, that there was a three tier Division One.

DI- BCS teams (Big 10, Big 12, SEC, etc)
D-IA Mid level teams (MAC, SB, C-USA, MVC (basketball) etc.)
D-IAA lower level teams in basketball (Big Sky, Summit etc) and the FCS world

Three tiers, three National Championships. BCS can keep the (major) bowl situation (Rose, Orange, Sugar, Fiesta, etc) while the D-IA tier would fight for a NC in a playoff just like the D-IAA tier would. Also D-IA and D-IAA would NOT have any requirements on attendance like the DI tier would. So it would be easier for teams in the third tier to move up if they would like. Just my two cents.

[DFW HOYA]

I'm not saying he's right or wrong, but if you're going to pick random dates then using that same logic 17 FBS schools could drop football altogether tomorrow and you could make this same argument that it never happens.

Winston-Salem State. But shouldn't you be comparing 1972 to 1972? As for dropping to D2 or D3, there are a few HBCU's having that discussion due to financial and APR issues. The APR at D1 now is going to be the APR at D2 in a few seasons, so some are looking at D3 because of the ability to cut costs and remain eligible.

Winston-Salem State wasn't playing I-AA in 1995 which is why I used a like for like comparison. And of course, no one was I-AA in 1972. If you would, the comparison of schools leaving I-A since 1995:

Dropped football: Pacific
Dropped to I-AA: None
Dropped to Division II: None
Dropped to Division III: None

No HBCU is dropping to D3 because a) there is no tradition of pure non-scholarship football in the HBCU's, b) there are no HBCU conferences currently operating at D3 from which to migrate to (the CIAA and SIAC are D2 conferences), and, most of all, c) the drop in budgets would doom many HBCU's to drop multiple sports and lose the one fundraising lifeline many schools depend on. Grambling is Grambling because they get visibility--who would care if the Grambling Band played at Faulkner or Huntingdon?

[BlueHenSinfonian]

I wish for football and for basktball too, that there was a three tier Division One.

DI- BCS teams (Big 10, Big 12, SEC, etc)
D-IA Mid level teams (MAC, SB, C-USA, MVC (basketball) etc.)
D-IAA lower level teams in basketball (Big Sky, Summit etc) and the FCS world

Three tiers, three National Championships. BCS can keep the (major) bowl situation (Rose, Orange, Sugar, Fiesta, etc) while the D-IA tier would fight for a NC in a playoff just like the D-IAA tier would. Also D-IA and D-IAA would NOT have any requirements on attendance like the DI tier would. So it would be easier for teams in the third tier to move up if they would like. Just my two cents.

Why would you want to further divide for basketball? As it is now a team from the Summit has the same chance to play for the championship as a team from the Big East or ACC, why give that up?

I'd also love to see the FBS/FCS split go away. Especially with the FBS now implementing a playoff, they could just make it all one division and expand the playoffs up to 32 teams or so. Right now the NCAA basketball tournament brings in tons of money, so having a full division 1 football tournament open to all division 1 schools could bring in a lot of money. Allow up to the full 85 scholarships for all Division 1 football programs, and just get rid of the requirement that a minimum number must be offered so that the schools who can't afford it don't have to.

[DFW HOYA]

Like it or not, the NCAA has to pay attention to what Saban & Co. says. The worst-case scenario is the SEC and Big 12 get fed up and leave the NCAA, call Fox or ESPN, pick up four more schools and create their own 30 team semi-pro league (playing amongst themselves, in an NFL-style conference, division, and playoff system), taking millions out of the NCAA balance sheet and rendering the remaining NCAA product as second-rate to fans, recruits, and advertisers.

I would also like a single Division I. But tell that to the six conferences who control the upper level football. They've seen how 300+ schools dilute their power in basketball, and they won't let it happen in football, which is why some want to cut the existing I-A further to keep the MAC, CUSA, MWC, etc. out of the deals.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Don't forget the Ivies all dropped down en masse after the 1982-1983 season. They were considered major college from 1978-1982.

[jmufan]

Seems like the top 6 conferences have become semi-pro leagues while the rest are real college teams.

[BlueHenSinfonian]

Like it or not, the NCAA has to pay attention to what Saban & Co. says. The worst-case scenario is the SEC and Big 12 get fed up and leave the NCAA, call Fox or ESPN, pick up four more schools and create their own 30 team semi-pro league (playing amongst themselves, in an NFL-style conference, division, and playoff system), taking millions out of the NCAA balance sheet and rendering the remaining NCAA product as second-rate to fans, recruits, and advertisers.

I would also like a single Division I. But tell that to the six conferences who control the upper level football. They've seen how 300+ schools dilute their power in basketball, and they won't let it happen in football, which is why some want to cut the existing I-A further to keep the MAC, CUSA, MWC, etc. out of the deals.

The NCAA does still have a trump card with basketball. If the SEC, Big 12, etc, try to break off the NCAA could just tell them they are no longer eligible to compete in the NCAA for basketball or other sports, and bye-bye lots of bucks coming from hoops to those schools.

[frozennorth]

why would anyone leave the ncaa, when they would just have to build a new ncaa from the ground up?

[ASU_Fanatic]

This could turn out to be really good or really bad for some teams

[Sader87]

It'll be interesting to see what will happen to the service academies (Annapolis, West Point and Air Force) football-wise as the BCS schools more and more become a de facto "minor league for the NFL."

[darell1976]

Why would you want to further divide for basketball? As it is now a team from the Summit has the same chance to play for the championship as a team from the Big East or ACC, why give that up?

I'd also love to see the FBS/FCS split go away. Especially with the FBS now implementing a playoff, they could just make it all one division and expand the playoffs up to 32 teams or so. Right now the NCAA basketball tournament brings in tons of money, so having a full division 1 football tournament open to all division 1 schools could bring in a lot of money. Allow up to the full 85 scholarships for all Division 1 football programs, and just get rid of the requirement that a minimum number must be offered so that the schools who can't afford it don't have to.

Would an NDSU actually win a NC in basketball? If UND or NDSU or a lower tiered conference were a 13-16 seed...whats the odds you are going to knock off the big boys every week to reach the Final Four? At least if you split it up you have a greater chance at a title. I mean isn't that the goal for every team to win a title not to just appear in MM get your 40 minutes of fame and disappear.

[MplsBison]

If this would come to pass, it would be to fulfill the demand for compelling non-conference games, not at the request of coaches, AD's, school presidents or conference commissioners.

That's because you can't schedule 7 or 8 home game if you're scheduling all four non-conference games against other big conference schools. Those games are either going to be played at neutral sites or as home/home series - in either case you're looking at 6 games max on campus.

Maybe that'd be fine with season ticket holders and boosters if the two non-conf home games were against other big time teams. But definitely would be less revenue in the school's pockets directly while potentially more money in the conferences' pockets in bigger TV deals.


As for the feasibility of it, all that really needs to happen is for the NCAA to make a new sub-division for football that only the Big Ten, Pac 12, Big XII, SEC and ACC can qualify for.

[seantaylor]

Zero chance of ever happening. Saban is as about as smart as Sammy Baker.

[superman7515]

No HBCU is dropping to D3 because a) there is no tradition of pure non-scholarship football in the HBCU's,
Lincoln, Fisk, Rust, St. Paul's, St. Augstine's, Shaw, and Stillman were all D3 recently.


b) there are no HBCU conferences currently operating at D3 from which to migrate to (the CIAA and SIAC are D2 conferences),
Not currently, but that hasn't stopped D3 HBCU's in recent years from existing and if enough of them move down they could certainly start their own conference.



c) the drop in budgets would doom many HBCU's to drop multiple sports and lose the one fundraising lifeline many schools depend on. Grambling is Grambling because they get visibility--who would care if the Grambling Band played at Faulkner or Huntingdon?
They're already operating on a shoestring budget at many of these schools. Look at Mississippi Valley State or look at South Carolina State cutting two sports and saying that may not be enough, but if they cut one more they will be forced to go to D2 whether they want to or not. The CIAA basketball tournament is the 5th largest sporting event in the United States and they're operating $500k in the red and begging the schools to give extra money to the conference and hitting up the sponsors for more. As long as their band is playing, they will show up whether they are playing Alabama or Wisconsin-River Falls, but if not they won't show up regardless of the opponent. That's why FAMU is hiring national recording artists to play halftime and having articles in the papers begging people to buy tickets for the coming season because they know they're in trouble without the 100. The product on the field/court/diamond etc is secondary to the performance of the band for the majority of the fans. If the band is doing well, the corporate sponsorships and fans and 100 Black Men of Atlanta will still shell out the money to keep the sports that matter going. They aren't required to cut the bands by moving down, so it won't hurt the money coming in.