MVFC Blog: Missouri State & Power Rankings

[mmiller_34]

Missouri State will probably be in for a long season.

http://mvfcfan.blogspot.com/

I also came up with doing a weekly Power Rankings system for this fall. Check it out and see what you think. Suggestions to make it better are welcomed. xnodx

[BisonHype!]

didn't we see this earlier in a post? Good site though.

[darell1976]

Where does USD fit into the power rankings?

[mmiller_34]

Where does USD fit into the power rankings?

I used last seasons MVFC standings to play around and come up with the power rankings I'll use for this season.

[darell1976]

I used last seasons MVFC standings to play around and come up with the power rankings I'll use for this season.

If you had to use USD's numbers from last year where would you rank them they played for the GWFC title, was ranked in the polls and knocked off NC EWU. I would think they weren't too low. Of course 3 win vs non DI teams and a big doughnut in the road win column hurts.

[mmiller_34]

didn't we see this earlier in a post? Good site though.

Thanks! I posted the same thing on Bisonville. Pretty sure I haven't posted it on AGS yet... it I did my bad. xbangx

[mmiller_34]

If you had to use USD's numbers from last year where would you rank them they played for the GWFC title, was ranked in the polls and knocked off NC EWU. I would think they weren't too low. Of course 3 non DI teams and a big doughnut in the road win column hurts.

Yah thats the problem with this power rankings system. I need to come up with a way to add in strength of schedule. So far its just wins, losses, points scored, and points against. It measures how well the team is performing, but it doesn't take into account whether the team played crap teams or good teams.

[darell1976]

Yah thats the problem with this power rankings system. I need to come up with a way to add in strength of schedule. So far its just wins, losses, points scored, and points against. It measures how well the team is performing, but it doesn't take into account whether the team played crap teams or good teams.

Thats where it hurts GWFC teams. They all played a lot of crap teams over the years just to fill out their schedule. At least starting this season everyone has a tough schedule their school has never seen and it will prove whether they are ready for the long haul to Frisco.

[mmiller_34]

Thats where it hurts GWFC teams. They all played a lot of crap teams over the years just to fill out their schedule. At least starting this season everyone has a tough schedule their school has never seen and it will prove whether they are ready for the long haul to Frisco.

Agreed. I remember those days SDSU had to play Augie once on Hobo Day just to fill their schedule, Missouri Rolla another year.. I'm glad those days are past.

[darell1976]

Agreed. I remember those days SDSU had to play Augie once on Hobo Day just to fill their schedule, Missouri Rolla another year.. I'm glad those days are past.

UND still can't get all non DI teams off their schedule with SDSoM on opening day. At least we have 11 DI games next season including hosting SDSU!!

[mmiller_34]

UND still can't get all non DI teams off their schedule with SDSoM on opening day. At least we have 11 DI games next season including hosting SDSU!!

Ohhh the School of Mines. Should be interesting to see what your new QB can do to them...

[darell1976]

Ohhh the School of Mines. Should be interesting to see what your new QB can do to them...

I chalk that game up as equal to an NFL preseason game. Its just a game to get the kinks out before we host Portland State in a non-conference game. Hopefully no injuries occur and we could even get some youngsters a chance to play.

[mmiller_34]

Okay, I think I've figured out SOS for the Power Ranking system.

If I calculated a teams average opponent win percentage multiplied it by 100, then added it onto a teams Power Ranking that would give bonuses for playing a tough schedule. Here is an example.

Last year North Dakota State's opponents overall record was 51-73. (left out the playoffs)

51/124 (total games played) = .411 win percentage.

.411 x 100 = 41 (rounding off to whole number)

Now, I'm thinking if I add 5 for each FBS team played and subtract 5 for lower division team played. Is that enough of a weight?

NDSU played Minnesota last year so I would at 5 to 41. Therefore NDSU's strength of schedule would be 46.

If a team (hypothetical) had an opponent win percentage at .596 (good teams)

.596 x 100 = 59.6 (round up to 60)

Lets say this team played an FBS team, add 5. 65 would be the total SOS for this team. So we can see how playing a tougher schedule would give you more points in the Power Ranking system. What do you guys think?

[MSUBear42]

The one good thing for MO State is our large number of returning players. We graduated only NINE players last year. We also got in transfers at every position, which is unlike normal TA.

The biggest ? Seems to be quarterback, but I really like Kierra Harris as a sophomore. He's very similar to Trevor Wooden and has amazing upside. I've also heard Glaser, the Mizzou transfer, has been very impressive.

It all comes down to Defense. I'm not worried about offense, they averaged 34 points a game the last 4 games of the season, and I know they have REALLY kicked up the pace. I've heard if they take over 15 seconds to run a play they've been getting screamed at.

[mmiller_34]

The one good thing for MO State is our large number of returning players. We graduated only NINE players last year. We also got in transfers at every position, which is unlike normal TA.

The biggest ? Seems to be quarterback, but I really like Kierra Harris as a sophomore. He's very similar to Trevor Wooden and has amazing upside. I've also heard Glaser, the Mizzou transfer, has been very impressive.

It all comes down to Defense. I'm not worried about offense, they averaged 34 points a game the last 4 games of the season, and I know they have REALLY kicked up the pace. I've heard if they take over 15 seconds to run a play they've been getting screamed at.

Thats good news! Harris put up some good numbers last season but he was overshadowed by Saffold.

[mmiller_34]

Thats good news! Harris put up some good numbers last season but he was overshadowed by Saffold.

Whoops for some reason I was thinking of Dotson and incorrectly associated Harris as a WR; he is a QB. My bad.

[BearsCountry]

Well advantage that the Bears have to avoid the cellar is that both South Dakota and Western Illinois come to Springfield.

[clenz]

Is returning that many players from a terrible team really that good of a thing?

I know players progress, but so do every other teams players - from teams that were better.

[BearsCountry]

We do have talent. Just horrible coaching. But you have to look at our losses - we lost by 8 or less in 3 of those. We did get blown out in 3, but those were the 3 best teams in the league. Anyways this is hopefully the end of Terry Allen in Springfield.

[mmiller_34]

Halfway through updating Power Rankings to include SOS. Its a son of a ***** figuring overall opponents records.

[MSUBear42]

We do have talent. Just horrible coaching. But you have to look at our losses - we lost by 8 or less in 3 of those. We did get blown out in 3, but those were the 3 best teams in the league. Anyways this is hopefully the end of Terry Allen in Springfield.

Either way it's a good thing. Either we have a winning record or we get a new coach.

[mmiller_34]

Okay, here are the results after putting in strength of schedule. On the right is with SOS and on the left is without.

1661216611

The only thing that changed was Indiana State jumped Illinois State because they played two FBS games (and won BIG in one) and one non-scholly. Illinois State played a non-scholly and no FBS teams.

The poll with the SOS resembles the three tiers of the MVFC that we always talk about.

Top: NDSU, UNI, YSU

Mid: Illinois State, Indiana State, SDSU

Low: SIU, MSU, WIU

Sorry about the size, you can view it here easier: http://mvfcfan.blogspot.com/p/power-rankings.html

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

We do have talent. Just horrible coaching. But you have to look at our losses - we lost by 8 or less in 3 of those. We did get blown out in 3, but those were the 3 best teams in the league. Anyways this is hopefully the end of Terry Allen in Springfield.


I think MSU could be a school that could turn into a very good FB school if they had the right coaching staff.

The potential is there. Great location for recruiting.

clenz pointed out in another thread about the losing records over the years. Not good.

Get a good coach with some energy and fire for recruiting that also brings in a good staff. They can build a good program but it will take time. Put a good product out on the field and fans will show up. Get fans wanting to come into Springfield on a saturday to watch the Bears.

I just think MSU has huge potential with the right staff in there.

[BisonFan02]

I think MSU could be a school that could turn into a very good FB school if they had the right coaching staff.

The potential is there. Great location for recruiting.

clenz pointed out in another thread about the losing records over the years. Not good.

Get a good coach with some energy and fire for recruiting that also brings in a good staff. They can build a good program but it will take time. Put a good product out on the field and fans will show up. Get fans wanting to come into Springfield on a saturday to watch the Bears.

I just think MSU has huge potential with the right staff in there.

Agreed....case in point, ISUb. One big jolt to the program could snowball considering the resources.

[BearsCountry]

I think MSU could be a school that could turn into a very good FB school if they had the right coaching staff.

The potential is there. Great location for recruiting.

clenz pointed out in another thread about the losing records over the years. Not good.

Get a good coach with some energy and fire for recruiting that also brings in a good staff. They can build a good program but it will take time. Put a good product out on the field and fans will show up. Get fans wanting to come into Springfield on a saturday to watch the Bears.

I just think MSU has huge potential with the right staff in there.

The last ten years has been the darkest period of Bears football really. Before 2002, we were pretty much always a top 4 team for the most part in the Gateway. If you look at our history, we have always been a 6-5 or 5-6 type squad. Our attendance has always been pretty decent even with the losing, 10k average or so. We do need some facility upgrades but for the most part we have very solid facilities for FCS. Resources are there as well. So yeah we need the right coaching staff and hiring retreads or other Valley coaches isn't the way to go.

There are at least 4 guys I would like MSU to look at:
Andy Hill, Missouri WR Coach (http://www.mutigers.com/sports/m-footbl/mtt/hill_andy00.html)
Craig Schurig, Washburn Head Coach (http://wusports.com/coaches.aspx?rc=320&path=football)
Jeff Brohm, UAB Offensive Coordinator (http://www.uabsports.com/sports/m-footbl/mtt/brohm_jeff00.html)
Tim Beck, Nebraska Offensive Coordinator (http://www.huskers.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=100&ATCLID=1364518)

[frozennorth]

I could probably rig up a pretty solid statistical model, but running it through my head it would take way more time than i have, and i'm not actually sure I could do what should be done with the programs I have, and programming something new is beyond my ability, as I know no programming languages.

[MSUBear42]

The last ten years has been the darkest period of Bears football really. Before 2002, we were pretty much always a top 4 team for the most part in the Gateway. If you look at our history, we have always been a 6-5 or 5-6 type squad. Our attendance has always been pretty decent even with the losing, 10k average or so. We do need some facility upgrades but for the most part we have very solid facilities for FCS. Resources are there as well. So yeah we need the right coaching staff and hiring retreads or other Valley coaches isn't the way to go.

There are at least 4 guys I would like MSU to look at:
Andy Hill, Missouri WR Coach (http://www.mutigers.com/sports/m-footbl/mtt/hill_andy00.html)
Craig Schurig, Washburn Head Coach (http://wusports.com/coaches.aspx?rc=320&path=football)
Jeff Brohm, UAB Offensive Coordinator (http://www.uabsports.com/sports/m-footbl/mtt/brohm_jeff00.html)
Tim Beck, Nebraska Offensive Coordinator (http://www.huskers.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=100&ATCLID=1364518)

No Bobby Petrino?