Why is it so hard to predict?

[flexbone]

After reading other posts and doing a little investigating.....
WHY DO YOU THINK IT IS SO HARD TO PREDICT IN 1-AA ( and not as hard for 1-a)
Last year App st was barely in the top 25 of most poles and I don't believe UNI was on the radar, but both USC and Texas were in the top 5.
James Madison was not even on the radar when they won it. etc..etc..
Is it because the EXPERTS don't pay us much attention?
Too much change, ie transfers,etc, from year to year?
I know when I try to "predict" it seems a lot easier with the 1-a teams compared to the 1-aa teams.

[lucchesicourt]

I believe it's s you said.The so-called experts really don't know much about football below 1A. They just look at past history and make predictions. For somewhat proof, the experts predicted UCD was Stanford's cupcake game last year and said UCD did not have a chance. Whereas CKelly, who covers the GWFC, said the Aggie "D" was very good and if they could keep the Aggies around until the 4th quarter anything could happen. The "D" did exactly that!!! Everyone knows the rest.

[bigbluetiger]

Most of I-AA talent is unknown and unrated by Rivals and the like making it harder to rank teams. Plus, the championship is played on the field and not voted which increases the chance for upsets.

[carney2]

Transfers are a consideration, I suppose, but here are some other thoughts:

1. The talent pool is not very deep compared to I-A, so graduation, injury, etc. problems are magnified.

2. Very few of the true "top" high school recruits (5-star and 4-star) end up in I-AA so true "difference makers" like Richie Williams last year at Appalachian State really have a tremendous impact.

3. Partly because of 1 and 2 above, "chemistry" is very important. The old "wanting it more than the other guy" probably is more important in I-AA than in I-A. This may simply result from the fact that the "other guy" doesn't have that huge talent edge to offset your emotional edge.

4. You hit one: lack of publicity and therefore, lack of knowledge. Who knew last August, for instance that, besides ASU, Texas State, or Brown, or Richmond, or...had real teams?

[SoCon48]

After reading other posts and doing a little investigating.....
WHY DO YOU THINK IT IS SO HARD TO PREDICT IN 1-AA ( and not as hard for 1-a)
but both USC and Texas were in the top 5.
James Madison was not even on the radar when they won it. etc..etc..
Is it because the EXPERTS don't pay us much attention?
Too much change, ie transfers,etc, from year to year?
I know when I try to "predict" it seems a lot easier with the 1-a teams compared to the 1-aa teams.

"Last year App st was barely in the top 25 of most poles and I don't believe UNI was on the radar",

The pollsters don't know enough about I-AA to recognize that so many teams rack up a string of wins vs mediocre compettion while others are week-in week-out facing tough teams. A one point loss to GSU or Furman is worth 5 wins vs dinks. Hell, even a win head to head doesn't convince them.

[kats89]

Experts don't know. IMO, I don't think Matt Daugherty really does his homework at times.

[SoCon48]

Transfers are a consideration, I suppose, but here are some other thoughts:

1. The talent pool is not very deep compared to I-A, so graduation, injury, etc. problems are magnified.

2. Very few of the true "top" high school recruits (5-star and 4-star) end up in I-AA so true "difference makers" like Richie Williams last year at Appalachian State really have a tremendous impact.

3. Partly because of 1 and 2 above, "chemistry" is very important. The old "wanting it more than the other guy" probably is more important in I-AA than in I-A. This may simply result from the fact that the "other guy" doesn't have that huge talent edge to offset your emotional edge.

4. You hit one: lack of publicity and therefore, lack of knowledge. Who knew last August, for instance that, besides ASU, Texas State, or Brown, or Richmond, or...had real teams?
or Richmond, or...had real teams

Richmond killed themselves with the pollsters when they lost 3 of their first four games. Pollsters (like many fans) look at records rather than the fact that Richmond faced Vanderbilt, U Mass and Lafayette while the some others racked up nice wins vs the mediocres of I-AA and lower.

[flexbone]

Experts don't know. IMO, I don't think Matt Daugherty really does his homework at times.
That leads me to my next gripe!!
I know retro sports puts out a good pre-season book , even though I didn't get mine until the mid to end of Sept. last year, BUT couldn't a Lindys, S & S, or Athlon put out a 1-aa Only mag???

[cosmo here]

I think there are a couple things to consider here:

1. The Playoff - it's much harder to predict a national champion, since they must win four postseason games instead of only one. Last year, the championship game would have been UNH vs. App State . . App State started the season below the radar, but UNH was highly ranked all year. the same, I would guess, holds true for most if not all of the seasons since the I-AA Playoff began, with at least one if not both of the top two seeds and/or national finalists highly ranked to start the season.

2. The Scholarships - it's much easier for I-A schools to build "dynasties" since they have more scholarships to work with . . USC has reloaded each year since they're able to store players away for a couple years, redshirt them, then roll out their next championship team. I-AA schools aren't afforded that same luxury.

3. The Media - you can point fingers at Matt Dougherty, but he's the only national expert who produces material year-round and writes a lengthy weekly column during the season, covering all of I-AA. you can't find I-A media who are experts on the entire classification, some of them know most of the BCS schools. Matt covers it all.

[smallcollegefbfan]

I thought Matt Dougherty did a good job. Coulson writes a national column as well and does a good job.

[89Hen]

1. The Playoff - it's much harder to predict a national champion, since they must win four postseason games instead of only one.
I think that may be the #1 cause. Only two teams get to play for the NC in I-A. The last four years the eventual I-AA NC wouldn't have even gotten to play for it if the polls determined two spots....

2005 - AppSt ranked 5 and 4 at the end of regular season
2004 - JMU 8 and 8
2003 - Delaware 3 and 3
2002 - WKU 15 and 15

[*****]

...couldn't a Lindys, S & S, or Athlon put out a 1-aa Only mag???I-AA.org does the only I-AA mag worth getting, true. Lindy's, S&S and Athlon have done nothing but reduce I-AA coverage. Don't expect those companies to do anything but put out their I-A advertisement masquerading as a magazine.

[Ivytalk]

I-AA.org does the only I-AA mag worth getting, true. Lindy's, S&S and Athlon have done nothing but reduce I-AA coverage. Don't expect those companies to do anything but put out their I-A advertisement masquerading as a magazine.

Right you are, Ralph. I looked at the S&S and SI 2006 preview issues at Borders last weekend, plus one or two others, and none of them had anything on I-AA.: smh : :bang: xidiotx

[umassfan]

Another reason is that people pay too much attention to the history. Teams like Delaware, Montana, GSU for example get too much credit sometimes when their teams dont back it up. Lets take Delaware for example this preseason. What did Delaware do last year that makes everything think they will be so great this year? They have an unproven QB, holes on their line, major issues on D, and WRs that just cant catch a ball. That really seems like the mixture for a winning season.

[TheRock21]

Right you are, Ralph. I looked at the S&S and SI 2006 preview issues at Borders last weekend, plus one or two others, and none of them had anything on I-AA.: smh : :bang: xidiotx

I bought Street & Smiths the past 4 years becuase they seem to do the best at covering I-AA, however the bulk of the magazine is dedicated to BCS conferences. By the way is it too late to order a copy of the I-AA.org magazine that covers nothing but I-AA teams?

[89Hen]

Lets take Delaware for example
Shocker you'd pick the Hens. xcoffeex :rolleyes:

[CrunchGriz]

Another reason is that people pay too much attention to the history. Teams like Delaware, Montana, GSU for example get too much credit sometimes when their teams dont back it up. Lets take Delaware for example this preseason. What did Delaware do last year that makes everything think they will be so great this year? They have an unproven QB, holes on their line, major issues on D, and WRs that just cant catch a ball. That really seems like the mixture for a winning season.

Okay, Montana has had a few down seasons in the past few when they were ranked too high in the preseason (like last season, when they finished at 8-4, which matches their worst in the past 11), but the Griz have also been in 5 of the last 11 title games, so I think they've generally "backed it up," even if they haven't won 11 straight titles.

Jus' sayin'....

...and why does umf have such a "thing" about Delaware? Maybe you could explain that to us, umassfan. You've shown an unusual amount of antipathy toward UD for as long as I've been reading this board.

Jus' wunnerin'....

[GSUISBACK]

PLAYOFFS
Had 1a had playoffs last year I really doubt that Usc and Texas would have meet in the championship game.

[MR. CHICKEN]

Another reason is that people pay too much attention to the history. Teams like Delaware, Montana, GSU for example get too much credit sometimes when their teams dont back it up. Lets take Delaware for example this preseason. What did Delaware do last year that makes everything think they will be so great this year? They have an unproven QB, holes on their line, major issues on D, and WRs that just cant catch a ball. That really seems like the mixture for a winning season.

DUH "BIG BLUE" FANS TRIED TA TELL YA'LL....YA CAN'T GO UNRANKED AT END '05.........AN' START AT DUH TOP 10 IN '06.........DAT HAS TA BE EARNED......SOMEWHERE NEAR 17th...18th..OR SO....WOULD UH BEEN MO' BELIEVEABLE.....BUT THX FO' DUH CONCERN....PILGRIM....:thumbsup:....BRAWK

[Retro]

At any level, it's hard to predict the top 25 much less the top ten itself.. I know if you really be objective and do your homework, you can put together a pretty good top 25 as most people on here have done..

Here was my pre-season top 10 last season and how they ended up officially.. I was able get 5 out of 10 teams correct. I'm sure many others on here did as good with a few different teams interchanged.

Mine:

1. Furman
2. Northern Iowa
3. Montana State
4. Delaware
5. Texas State
6. James Madison
7. Montana
8. Appalachian State
9. Western Kentucky
10. William & Mary

ags final:

1. Appalachian State
2. Northern Iowa
3. Texas State
4. Furman
5. New Hampshire
6. Cal Poly
7. Southern Illinois
8. Richmond
9. Georgia Southern
10. Montana

[TheValleyRaider]

As mentioned, the playoffs are the #1 cause. Same reason why predicting the College Basketball champion is so tough, because you never know quite how the tournament will shake out.

It should also be mentioned that the polls are much more important at I-A. Ask yourself if USC and Texas would have been left out of the Rose Bowl should another team have gone undefeated with them. The BCS takes these 'predictions' into account when putting out their numbers. We put out a poll, but it doesn't really mean much outside of a reference tool. In I-A, being ranked #1 or 2 matters. In I-AA, being ranked #1 or 2 is a curse ;)

[Saint3333]

Why is it so hard to predict 1-AA, I believe the number 1 reason is 85 scholarships versus 63. Every 1-AA team has 2-4 positions with big question marks every year and just 2 positions can make the difference between the #1 team and the 10th ranked team in 1-AA.

That said I hope we find a right DE and a backup DT:smiley_wi .

[umassfan]

Okay, Montana has had a few down seasons in the past few when they were ranked too high in the preseason (like last season, when they finished at 8-4, which matches their worst in the past 11), but the Griz have also been in 5 of the last 11 title games, so I think they've generally "backed it up," even if they haven't won 11 straight titles.

Jus' sayin'....

...and why does umf have such a "thing" about Delaware? Maybe you could explain that to us, umassfan. You've shown an unusual amount of antipathy toward UD for as long as I've been reading this board.

Jus' wunnerin'....

Sorry if I just point out truth and it just so happens to be with Delaware. They just are an A10 team that I know more about then teams from other conferences. They also get alot more credit then credit earned. Mr Chicken agrees with me why doesnt the rest of AGS. Unranked to top 10 is just stupid!

[cosmo here]

Sorry if I just point out truth and it just so happens to be with Delaware. They just are an A10 team that I know more about then teams from other conferences. They also get alot more credit then credit earned. Mr Chicken agrees with me why doesnt the rest of AGS. Unranked to top 10 is just stupid!

I agree with you (this time), but usually, you're the boy crying wolf . . by now it's a Pavlonian reaction . . umassfan=hates Delaware. maybe start by telling yourself Omar Cuff is a better all-around back than Steve Baylark, then admit it on AGS, then somebody might believe you.

[*****]

... They also get alot more credit then credit earned. Mr Chicken agrees with me why doesnt the rest of AGS. Unranked to top 10 is just stupid!Maybe you should vote instead of complaining.

[*****]

... Is it because the EXPERTS don't pay us much attention?...Maybe you are looking at the wrong folks and calling them I-AA experts?

[walliver]

I think one of the problems predicting I-AA teams nationally is that most teams play very geographically limited schedules. Therefore, to most observers, they only see the games in their region and don't really know what is going on in the rest of the country.

[Mr. C]

People underestimated Appalachian State and Northern Iowa last year because both programs were coming off sub-par (for them) seasons and had missed the playoffs in back-to-back years. But if you knew the players that ASU had coming back from injuries and academics, you knew they would be in the thick of things as a top-10 team. Same with Northern Iowa. Did I pick these two to go to the championship game? Not in my preseason poll (though I was on record with those two meeting for the title on the day the playoff brackets were announced and they were in my top-10 preseason). But they are programs that are capable of deep playoff runs in any given year, because of the traditional strength of their programs. Injuries can also have a major impact on some teams (particularly with less scholarships at I-AA) and teams you expect to do better can suddenly nose dive because of that. We also know that just about anyone can emerge from the A-10 in a given year. It should never surprise someone when teams like ASU, UNI, Delaware, Montana, Furman, McNeese State or Western Kentucky are in the thick of things. I'd put Georgia Southern in there in most years, but its hard to expect much from the Eagles this year after all of the changes. Cal Poly and Southern Illinois are another pair of programs that are starting to move into that elite group as well. I'd probably be more surprised if one of those teams from above wasn't in the championship game.

[ngineer]

Maybe you are looking at the wrong folks and calling them I-AA experts?

Definition of an 'expert'--He flies in from 2,000 miles away. You take him upstairs into the bedroom. Have him look at the bed. He'll tell you whether it was for love or money....;)

[MR. CHICKEN]

TAKE DUH TOP 16 I-A's......START DUH PLAY-OFFS.....&....SEE IFIN' USC OR TEXAS.......COMES OUT ON TOP.............AGS ME LADDIES........YA'LL COULD'NT PREDICT DUH WINNER...ANY MOREAH.....DAN IN I-AA.......ONCE IN UH WHILE......UH TEAM IS SO DOMINATE.....IT WOULD BE EASY.......BUT YEAR IN...YEAR OUT.......SAME RESULTS AS I-AA!......GET DUH I-A's TA PLAY FOUR STRAIGHT WEEKS....AN' ANY GIVEN SATURDAY.............YA'LL OWE DUH AVIAN...UH HONORARY DEGREE...FO' DIS WISDOM...............:bow:..............BRAWK!

[ngineer]

Overall, there just isn't much information out there on I-AA teams OTHER THAN what we learn here and in the I-AA.org magazine. Even then, we're influenced to some degree by what others say, historical success, and our perceptions of 'strength or weakness' of different conferences. It is very difficult for me to judge the strength of teams from Southland, the Great West, and the BSC because while we don't play one another, we don't even play any common opponents. At least in the region, we get to see and compare how teams do in OOC games that cross over the conferences.
There is also growing parity. The limits on scholarships and transfers also impact. Not much transfering between I-A schools due to the penalty of having to sit a year.

[89Hen]

Southern Illinois... are starting to move into that elite group as well.
I don't know if I'm ready to agree with that. They've had three good regular seasons but only one win in the playoffs against one of the weaker teams in the field last year. In those three years here are SIU's OOC wins...

Southeast Missouri State (3x)
Murray State
NDSU
EIU (playoffs)
Delaware State
Quincy
St. Joseph's
Union
William Penn

Not really an impressive list. Not being critical of their choice of OOC opponents, but that list of wins doesn't do much for me. Perhaps the best win being the 9-0 win over NDSU? Until they go deeper in the playoffs or win some better OOC games, I reserve my affirmation of SIU. :twocents:

[LBPop]

While I would agree that playoffs make predicting champions more difficult, I would suggest that the true fans do a pretty good job of predicting the top 25 each season--although not necessarily in the right order. I would add the following "twists" to the discussion:
Information is much harder to obtain because the schools don't/can't spend nearly as much as I-A programs spreading the word. Even "propaganda" is better information than NO information.
There's little or no opportunity to see other teams on TV. I may not be the best informed I-AA fan, but I know football fairly well. Yet, I really had no idea about most playoff teams until I saw the playoffs on TV. Watching Santos to Ball carve up Colgate (a team I had seen in person) was a real eye opener. If they had been I-A, I would have already seen them twice live and about two dozen times on ESPN.
The I-AA athletes are more unpredictable. It is my observation that a large majority of I-AA players are not playing I-A because of a perceived "flaw". Typically they are considered either too small or too slow for their position. To me the principal charm of I-AA is that the division is full of over-achievers. The most difficult thing to measure is "heart" and that to me is what sets apart the stars at the I-AA level even more than at the next level. There are a lot of magnificently gifted athletes who succeed at the I-A level despite failing to come close to realizing their potential. I would venture that the number of successful I-AA players who can get away with that is far smaller.I'm admittedly a I-AA "newbie" and not close to an "expert". However, I am a recovering I-A fan and these are the observations I have made thus far as I continue the process. :nod:

[SoCon48]

Right you are, Ralph. I looked at the S&S and SI 2006 preview issues at Borders last weekend, plus one or two others, and none of them had anything on I-AA.: smh : :bang: xidiotx

Look again. Street and Smith's has over 22 pages of I-AA write-ups, stats, schedules:

S&S has an 18 page section on I-AA.
Plus 2 more of NCAA I-AA Statistics.
I-AA's recap of 2005 conf standings are included with I-A
Chart of I-AA Play-offs on same page as Bowl Results
Predictions on each conference's order of finish.
Top 3 players for each conference.
Game to watch for each conference.
Street & Smith's Division I-AA All-America team
Pick of the 3 top players in I-AA
Top 25 team rankings
I-AA team schedules are included with the I-A programs in the back section
Color pics of some of I-AA's athletes within some conf write-ups (NH's David Ball, Montana's Lex Hilliard, Marist's Obozua Ehikioya, EKU's Josh Greco, Austin Peay's Chris Fletcher)
Some regional issues even have a small pic a I-AA player on the cover


Picked up mine at Books A Million after having already looked through it at the supermarket..great nationwide distribution

[flexbone]

[QUOTE=I-AA 2006]Look again. Street and Smith's has over 22 pages of I-AA write-ups, stats, schedules:

S&S has an 18 page section on I-AA.
Plus 2 more of NCAA I-AA Statistics.
I-AA's recap of 2005 conf standings are included with I-A
Chart of I-AA Play-offs on same page as Bowl Results
Predictions on each conference's order of finish.
Top 3 players for each conference.
Game to watch for each conference.
Street & Smith's Division I-AA All-America team
Pick of the 3 top players in I-AA
Top 25 team rankings
I-AA team schedules are included with the I-A programs in the back section
Color pics of some of I-AA's athletes within some conf write-ups (NH's David Ball, Montana's Lex Hilliard, Marist's Obozua Ehikioya, EKU's Josh Greco, Austin Peay's Chris Fletcher)
Some regional issues even have a small pic a I-AA player on the cover


I'll admit they have the best coverage so far. But lets be honest, Each team averages about 4-7 sentences of "Detail", Hardly the amount of info a person would read and feel they have any understanding of the teams strengths and weaknesses. There is no 2-deep depth chart, if it isn't a really big name 1-a transfer there is no mention of new transfers, potential high school impact recruits or impact redshirt freshmen, They don't even put up all-conference teams, etc, etc,
YOU GET MY POINT

[SunCoastBlueHen]

Why is it so hard to predict 1-AA, I believe the number 1 reason is 85 scholarships versus 63. Every 1-AA team has 2-4 positions with big question marks every year and just 2 positions can make the difference between the #1 team and the 10th ranked team in 1-AA.

That said I hope we find a right DE and a backup DT:smiley_wi .


Agreed. The fewer schollys also mean a lack of depth. A key injury or two can kill a I-AA team where the top IA squads are loaded with capable back-ups.

The top teams in the end are often the ones that best avoid the injury bug.

[Umass74]

I agree with SunCoast. It's a rare, rare I-AA team that goes two-deep at every position.

Staying healthy has a big impact on how a I-AA team plays. In UMass' 1998 run to the National Championship every UMass starting Offensive Linman played in all 15 games. That has not happened for UMass since.

Also with 63 scholarships, you tend to get years when large numbers of seniors graduate. In 2004, UMass went into spring football with only 14 scholarship players on defense.

There is just no I-AA equivalent to the amount of talent USC has stockpiled.

[SoCon48]

[QUOTE=I-AA 2006]Look again. Street and Smith's has over 22 pages of I-AA write-ups, stats, schedules:

S&S has an 18 page section on I-AA.
Plus 2 more of NCAA I-AA Statistics.
I-AA's recap of 2005 conf standings are included with I-A
Chart of I-AA Play-offs on same page as Bowl Results
Predictions on each conference's order of finish.
Top 3 players for each conference.
Game to watch for each conference.
Street & Smith's Division I-AA All-America team
Pick of the 3 top players in I-AA
Top 25 team rankings
I-AA team schedules are included with the I-A programs in the back section
Color pics of some of I-AA's athletes within some conf write-ups (NH's David Ball, Montana's Lex Hilliard, Marist's Obozua Ehikioya, EKU's Josh Greco, Austin Peay's Chris Fletcher)
Some regional issues even have a small pic a I-AA player on the cover


I'll admit they have the best coverage so far. But lets be honest, Each team averages about 4-7 sentences of "Detail", Hardly the amount of info a person would read and feel they have any understanding of the teams strengths and weaknesses. There is no 2-deep depth chart, if it isn't a really big name 1-a transfer there is no mention of new transfers, potential high school impact recruits or impact redshirt freshmen, They don't even put up all-conference teams, etc, etc,
YOU GET MY POINT

Of course.
I was just referring to the amount of exposure it gives I-AA, devoting that space and mingling with I-A..you know like for once we're actually part of Division I.
I was well pleased and definitely thought I got my 6.99 worth in a solid classic like Street and Smiths. (2 million copies and been around for 60 years).
Nice to see us treated like we are a true part of the college football scene.

[McNeese75]

The top teams in the end are often the ones that best avoid the injury bug.

:nod:

I seem to remember when the Pokes went to Chatty in 1997 they pretty much had the entire roster from the beginning of the season healthy and ready to play in the NC game.

[SunCoastBlueHen]

:nod:

I seem to remember when the Pokes went to Chatty in 1997 they pretty much had the entire roster from the beginning of the season healthy and ready to play in the NC game.

Same with the Hens in '03 - nearly 100% healthy through the playoffs. :nod:

During the middle of that season, however, Delaware did have a few key injuries and they were certainly not as dominant a team during that time as they were in the playoffs.

[*****]

[B]Look again. Street and Smith's has over 22 pages of I-AA write-ups, stats, schedules...Like this? (page 10 of 137... all I-AA)

[SoCon48]

I enjoyed the sections allocated to I-AA and the fact that our schedules aren't ommitted and are integrated with that of I-AA. Also glad to see our information disseminated along with I-A's to 2 million college football fans across the US and around the world.
We are part of the NCAA and should be treated as such and not some little dinky obscure organization shunned by its own sponsor that has to rely solely on self-promotion and to only its smaller sub-population.
Like millions of other college football fans have done for decades, I look for Street and Smiths every year. Its appearance each summer signals the fact that college football is just around the corner.
I'm glad that Street and Smiths still considers us part of the total college football scene.