Point Spread Projections

[asumike83]

The only FCS match-ups on here are those against FBS opponents but interesting nonetheless. Appalachian is a 15-point underdog at ECU.

Never too early: College football point spread projections for all 798 regular season games (http://beyondthebets.com/2012/06/06/never-too-early-college-football-point-spread-projections-for-all-798-regular-season-games/)

[Professor Chaos]

I'll take NDSU (+2.5) over Colorado St for anyone who wants to make that bet.

A few other FCS/FBS matchups I like:
1) UNI (+24.5) over Iowa
2) Sam Houston (+24) over Baylor
3) New Hampshire (+23.5) over Minnesota

[asumike83]

I'll take NDSU (+2.5) over Colorado St for anyone who wants to make that bet.

A couple other FCS/FBS matchups I like:
1) UNI (+24.5) over Iowa
2) Sam Houston (+24) over Baylor
3) New Hampshire (+23.5) over Minnesota

Unless Minnesota got a lot better, I like that one.

[clenz]

I'll throw a grand down that UNI covers that

Sent from my SCH-I500 using Tapatalk 2

[Professor Chaos]

Stony Brook (+23) over Army would be another favorable bet. Not a lot of respect out there for the upper echelon of FCS schools playing some pretty pedestrian FBS schools. I understand the FBS schools being favored but to have these 20+ point spreads just shows how uneducated even the sports betting public is on the gap between top level FCS and lower level FBS.

[LakesBison]

ndsu itll be +6 by gametime, vegas people dont like fcs.

[frozennorth]

indiana state indiana and ewu wsu and ewu idaho are two obvious good buys. ysu pittsburg might be another good one.

[chattownmocs]

Villanova at Temple -16.5
Jacksonville State at Arkansas -36
Chattanooga at South Florida -30
Central Arkansas at Ole Miss -21
Appalachian State at East Carolina -15
Southern University at New Mexico -10
Savannah State at Oklahoma State -52
Tennessee-Martin at Memphis -10.5
Eastern Kentucky at Purdue -27
Elon at North Carolina -39
Murray State at Florida State -49


Only ones that I feel remotely strongly about.

[UAalum72]

Not a lot of respect out there for the upper echelon of FCS schools playing some pretty pedestrian FBS schools. I understand the FBS schools being favored but to have these 20+ point spreads just shows how uneducated even the sports betting public is on the gap between top level FCS and lower level FBS.
Which makes it even more surprising that Wagner is only getting 9 1/2 at Florida Atlantic.

[Sammy94]

Sam Houston State at Baylor -24


I hope it stays like this. I'll throw a grand on this one.

[darell1976]

UND +20 at San Diego State.....not bad. It should be a good game.

[BEAR]

Central Arkansas at Ole Miss -21

Interesting. They may be bottom rung SEC but coach Hugh Freeze saw us last year short handed and it was close at half time. Depth yet again will get us. I see this as another battle like the Louisiana Tech game was last year. Ole Miss wins by 2 TDs..not 3.

[asumike83]

I really like our chances to cover that +15 at ECU. I was expecting the spread to be more in the 7-10 range. We took their 2009 C-USA Championship team down to the last possession with our 3rd string QB and they are not likely to be as strong as they were that year.

[katstrapper]

Sam Houston State at Baylor -24


I hope it stays like this. I'll throw a grand on this one.

Kats a 24 point dog at Baylor... Hmmm, I think I would have to put my money on the Kats to cover that spread at this point. Kat D is going to be scary good this year!! Baylor has lost a lot of weapons.

Its why they play the game!!

[ebemiss]

My ratings are also online for the 2012 season. I have the FCS and FCS schedule available. To get a projected margin and game total for all games, just like click the date on the calendar and hit go.

http://edbemiss.com/index.php?option=com_predcal

Team rankings will get better as more data is available, but at least it's something to start the season with.

[BisonHype!]

Stony Brook (+23) over Army would be another favorable bet. Not a lot of respect out there for the upper echelon of FCS schools playing some pretty pedestrian FBS schools. I understand the FBS schools being favored but to have these 20+ point spreads just shows how uneducated even the sports betting public is on the gap between top level FCS and lower level FBS.

Gotta remember that these schedules were set for the most part a couple years ago. Might not have been an upper echelon school yet, or a very good team at that point. NDSU didn't have a winning record a couple seasons ago. I realize your talking about some that have been around longer, but schedule wise, the upper echelon FBS schools (the smart ones) like to dodge an upset alert. FCS LOSS= Recruiting Hit

[Professor Chaos]

My ratings are also online for the 2012 season. I have the FCS and FCS schedule available. To get a projected margin and game total for all games, just like click the date on the calendar and hit go.

http://edbemiss.com/index.php?option=com_predcal

Team rankings will get better as more data is available, but at least it's something to start the season with.
Your spreads are a lot more along the lines of what I would expect for these games:
1) NDSU (-7) at Colorado St
2) UNI at Iowa (-15)
3) UNH at Minnesota (-5)


Gotta remember that these schedules were set for the most part a couple years ago. Might not have been an upper echelon school yet, or a very good team at that point. NDSU didn't have a winning record a couple seasons ago. I realize your talking about some that have been around longer, but schedule wise, the upper echelon FBS schools (the smart ones) like to dodge an upset alert. FCS LOSS= Recruiting Hit
I'm not saying the schools are foolish for scheduling good FCS teams, I'm saying the guys setting these lines are foolish for not recognizing the fact that there isn't much of a gap between a top 10 FCS team and a bottom 20 FBS team. They have the benefit of current data to base this on. Although spreads are entirely dictated by the bets being placed and the average betting sports fan probably doesn't recognize that a team like the University of New Hampshire has an excellent shot to beat a team like the University of Minnesota.

[Apphole]

I really like our chances to cover that +15 at ECU. I was expecting the spread to be more in the 7-10 range. We took their 2009 C-USA Championship team down to the last possession with our 3rd string QB and they are not likely to be as strong as they were that year.

ECU was bad last year, real bad. My ECU fan friends are convinced they have a formidable defense, but their offense should be God awful. If our O-line is any better than last year, and I feel like we would have to make a conscious effort for it not to be, I think we have a really good shot at a win. As good as our D is looking, I'm not too worried about the Pirates lighting up the score board.

If we score more than 24 points, I think we win for sure.

[NoDak 4 Ever]

ndsu itll be +6 by gametime, vegas people dont like fcs.

For someone who has a second home in Vegas or something, you don't know much. Vegas people like MONEY. Betting lines are designed to get bets on both sides.

[BisonHype!]

I'm not saying the schools are foolish for scheduling good FCS teams, I'm saying the guys setting these lines are foolish for not recognizing the fact that there isn't much of a gap between a top 10 FCS team and a bottom 20 FBS team. And they have current data to based this on.

Oh, I totally agree. It hurts them to schedule a good FCS team in the first place, and especially if it is close or they get beat. If they can schedule a bad FBS team, because everyone needs home games, it just makes more sense for them. Most of the time playing an FCS team its supposed to be a confidence builder.

[Sycamore51]

My ratings are also online for the 2012 season. I have the FCS and FCS schedule available. To get a projected margin and game total for all games, just like click the date on the calendar and hit go.

http://edbemiss.com/index.php?option=com_predcal

Team rankings will get better as more data is available, but at least it's something to start the season with.
I think you are a lot closer to what I expected on the ISU @ IU game. ISU as. 10 point dog going in to Bloomington is a lot closer than 23.5. Having said that means we'll get waxed by 30 now

[PaladinFan]

This clown nicely calls out Furman and Samford as "real stinkers." I assume he didn't bother looking up Furman's performance against Florida last season or Samford's showing against Auburn.

Nope, that's the old "I've never heard of them so they must suck" approach to college sports.

[NoDak 4 Ever]

This clown nicely calls out Furman and Samford as "real stinkers." I assume he didn't bother looking up Furman's performance against Florida last season or Samford's showing against Auburn.

Nope, that's the old "I've never heard of them so they must suck" approach to college sports.

That's not what he meant. He was referring to the accuracy of his predictions being wrong because of the dearth of information on smaller FCS schools like the ones he listed compared the the bigger schools. Take a deep breath and relax.

[McNeese75]

I would be smiling about being a 20 point dog to Middle Tennessee, but.......... xconfusedx WhoTF knows at this point in time.