2012 FCS teams added to simulation and Predictor

[ebemiss]

With the help of a poster and his returning FCS starters list. I've adjusted last years rankings and teams and I've added 2012 FCS and FBS teams to simulation I've created. Here's a sample game

http://www.nationalsportsrankings.com/index.php?option=com_oneonone&magic=3002

hit play again to get a different result each time or select new teams to try a different match up.

For some reason the 100 game match up isn't loading that fast (that gives a better projection for an upcoming game) but if you go here and select ncaa football 2012, you can get a prediction for any upcoming game using my single game predictor.

http://www.edbemiss.com/index.php?option=com_predictor

These teams will continue to get updated throughout the season, I just thought people would enjoy messing around with them now.

I'd like to add every FCS game this season to my predictor calendar (link below) so if you click a date you'll get a list of every game on that day. I'm still searching for a full FCS composite schedule, by date, if anyone has a link please post it. I'd have to convert to excel to get it to work, but finding it is hard enough right now.

You'll see if you go to a Saturday in September, pick the date and hit go, you'll get all the D1 games that day. I'd like to do the same with the FCS schedule.

http://www.edbemiss.com/index.php?option=com_predcal

Users can still set up the full season schedule, for their team, using the sim by going here:

http://www.nationalsportsrankings.com/index.php?option=com_dreamseason&Itemid=74

[ursus arctos horribilis]

As always, fun to play out a season on that. Thanks man.

[ebemiss]

As always, fun to play out a season on that. Thanks man.

Thanks. I appreciate it.

[darell1976]

UND
vs SD SoM (DII) win
vs Portland State 34-30 win
at San Diego State 34-7 loss
at Sac State 32-22 loss
vs Cal Poly 32-29 win
at Eastern Washington 38-23 loss
vs Northern Arizona 23-11 win
vs Montana 20-9 win
at Montana State 14-9 loss
vs Southern Utah 34-31 loss
at Northern Colorado 32-18 win

5-5 in DI games. I doubt the score of the Montana game will be true...but wishful thinking.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

UND
vs SD SoM (DII) win
vs Portland State 34-30 win
at San Diego State 34-7 loss
at Sac State 32-22 loss
vs Cal Poly 32-29 win
at Eastern Washington 38-23 loss
vs Northern Arizona 23-11 win
vs Montana 20-9 win
at Montana State 14-9 loss
vs Southern Utah 34-31 loss
at Northern Colorado 32-18 win

5-5 in DI games. I doubt the score of the Montana game will be true...but wishful thinking.

It might if Jordan Johnson ends up not playing for the Griz in 2012. xlolx

The EWU game looks about right though. xthumbsupx

[Screamin_Eagle174]

EWU: 7-4

8/30 @ Idaho: EWU wins 20-3 .... xlolx xlolx xlolx
9/8 @ Wazzu: Cougs win 28-20 .... respectable.
9/22 @ WSU: EWU wins 42-28 .... sounds about right against Sears' D. :D
9/29 vs. UM: EWU wins 32-27 .... another close battle.
10/6 vs. UND: EWU wins 19-14 .... not gonna be that close.
10/13 @ MSU: MSU wins 19-17 .... should be a close match, MSU is at home.
10/20 vs. SAC: SAC wins 28-26 .... yeah, we'll see.
10/27 @ SUU: SUU wins 34-19 .... late season slide? Very atypical for EWU.
11/3 vs. CP: EWU wins 30-16 .... still playoff eligible.
11/10 vs. UCD: EWU wins 40-22 .... sounds about right.
11/17 @ PSU: EWU wins 37-27 .... and into the playoffs at 7-4.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Eastern Wash.(2012) wins 48 of 100 matchups against Idaho(2012)
Washington St.(2012) wins 97 of 100 matchups against Eastern Wash.(2012)
Eastern Wash.(2012) wins 63 of 100 matchups against Weber St.(2012)
Eastern Wash.(2012) wins 51 of 100 matchups against Montana(2012)
Eastern Wash.(2012) wins 83 of 100 matchups against North Dakota(2012)
Montana St.(2012) wins 52 of 100 matchups against Eastern Wash.(2012)
Eastern Wash.(2012) wins 86 of 100 matchups against Sacramento St.(2012)
Southern Utah(2012) wins 59 of 100 matchups against Eastern Wash.(2012)
Eastern Wash.(2012) wins 82 of 100 matchups against Cal Poly(2012)
Eastern Wash.(2012) wins 80 of 100 matchups against UC Davis(2012)
Eastern Wash.(2012) wins 86 of 100 matchups against Portland St.(2012)


So I'd say between 5-6 and 10-1, with 8-3 or 7-4 most likely (1-2 or 2-1 in the 50/50 games).

[frozennorth]

picked NDSU to go 10-1, with only a 3 point loss to CSU.


Game 1 Results Robert Morris (2012) 12 North Dakota St. (2012) 46
Game 2 Results North Dakota St. (2012) 15 Colorado St. (2012) 18
Game 3 Results Prairie View A&M (2012) 22 North Dakota St. (2012) 47
Game 4 Results North Dakota St. (2012) 29 Northern Iowa (2012) 19
Game 5 Results Youngstown St. (2012) 23 North Dakota St. (2012) 29
Game 6 Results Indiana St. (2012) 12 North Dakota St. (2012) 41
Game 7 Results North Dakota St. (2012) 36 South Dakota (2012) 21
Game 8 Results Southern Ill. (2012) 13 North Dakota St. (2012) 38
Game 9 Results North Dakota St. (2012) 32 Missouri St. (2012) 20
Game 10 Results South Dakota St. (2012) 12 North Dakota St. (2012) 27
Game 11 Results North Dakota St. (2012) 41 Illinois St. (2012) 23

[alvinkayak6]

I will be rooting for FCS West all year! xlolx

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Eastern Wash.(2012) wins 48 of 100 matchups against Idaho(2012)


A WAC attack! And the WAC needs saving? xlolx

[Sammy94]

Thats my prediction also. The scores for the Baylor and Lamar games are a bit off but the results are the same.

Sam Houston St. (2012)

Record 9-2




Game 1 Results Division 2 Team (2011) 11 Sam Houston St. (2012) 50
Game 2 Results Sam Houston St. (2012) 24 Baylor (2012) 52
Game 3 Results Sam Houston St. (2012) 48 Central Arkansas (2012) 23
Game 4 Results Sam Houston St. (2012) 29 Texas Southern (2012) 16
Game 5 Results Stephen F. Austin (2012) 30 Sam Houston St. (2012) 43
Game 6 Results Sam Houston St. (2012) 46 Nicholls St. (2012) 8
Game 7 Results McNeese St. (2012) 8 Sam Houston St. (2012) 39
Game 8 Results Sam Houston St. (2012) 18 Lamar (2012) 3
Game 9 Results SE Louisiana (2012) 17 Sam Houston St. (2012) 40
Game 10 Results Sam Houston St. (2012) 48 Northwestern St. (2012) 27
Game 11 Results Sam Houston St. (2012) 25 Texas A&M (2012) 41




Sam Houston St. (2012)

Record 9-2

[eiu1999]

EIU with a 2-9 record. Squeaking out a win against SIU and pasting SEMO.


Game 1 Results Southern Ill. (2012) 15 Eastern Illinois (2012) 18
Game 2 Results Eastern Illinois (2012) 15 W. Michigan (2012) 48
Game 3 Results Eastern Illinois (2012) 26 Illinois St. (2012) 36
Game 4 Results Murray St. (2012) 32 Eastern Illinois (2012) 25
Game 5 Results Austin Peay (2012) 47 Eastern Illinois (2012) 45
Game 6 Results Eastern Illinois (2012) 29 Tenn-Martin (2012) 37
Game 7 Results Jacksonville St. (2012) 24 Eastern Illinois (2012) 9
Game 8 Results Eastern Illinois (2012) 13 Eastern Kentucky (2012) 25
Game 9 Results Eastern Illinois (2012) 32 Tennessee Tech (2012) 40
Game 10 Results SE Missouri St. (2012) 14 Eastern Illinois (2012) 42
Game 11 Results Eastern Illinois (2012) 37 Central Arkansas (2012) 39

[NoDak 4 Ever]

I ran a couple of 100 game sims using last years NDSU teams just to see how close it would have been with SHSU. There are several claiming that if that game was played 10 times, Sammy would come out on top.

SHSU at home - NDSU wins 60% of matchups
NDSU at home - NDSU wins 77% of matchups

Just for fun.

NDSU wins 100% of matchups against UND at home
NDSU wins 84% of matchups against UND on the road.

I love that 2011 team.

[darell1976]

I ran a couple of 100 game sims using last years NDSU teams just to see how close it would have been with SHSU. There are several claiming that if that game was played 10 times, Sammy would come out on top.

SHSU at home - NDSU wins 60% of matchups
NDSU at home - NDSU wins 77% of matchups

Just for fun.

NDSU wins 100% of matchups against UND at home
NDSU wins 84% of matchups against UND on the road.

I love that 2011 team.

So you are saying there is a chance. YES!!!!!!!!!!

[clenz]

I think there's a glitch.....It's got UNI going 0-11 every single time I run it.


We may not get to 10 wins, but we don't get to more than 5 losses.

[Sam_Kats]

I ran a couple of 100 game sims using last years NDSU teams just to see how close it would have been with SHSU. There are several claiming that if that game was played 10 times, Sammy would come out on top.

SHSU at home - NDSU wins 60% of matchups
NDSU at home - NDSU wins 77% of matchups

Just for fun.

NDSU wins 100% of matchups against UND at home
NDSU wins 84% of matchups against UND on the road.

I love that 2011 team.

Wouldn't that use the end of yr data from 2010? A year in which Sam wasn't even voted in the top 25?

Either way, I'm convinced SH - NDSU was such a good matchup, to use your 10 game spread, it would be 5-5. So many things could have gone the other way...they didn't & that's why they play the games. Beauty of sports. Just hope Kats make another run.

[Sammy94]

This is for year end 2011. A toss up every game if you ask me.

Location Predicted Line

at North Dakota St. North Dakota St. 28.0 Sam Houston St. 24.0 -4.0

Neutral North Dakota St. 26.0 Sam Houston St. 25.0 -1.0

at Sam Houston St. Sam Houston St. 27.0 North Dakota St. 25.0 -2.0

[I-16Bandit]

For Georgia Southern (averages of 100 games each):

Jacksonville (home) : 44 - 20 W (win 95 of 100)
The Citadel (away) : 30 - 18 W (win 91 of 100)
Elon (home) : 41 - 17 W (win 95 of 100)
Samford (home) : 37 - 16 W (96 of 100)
Western Carolina (away) : 45 - 16 W (100 of 100)
Wofford (home) : 25 - 18 W (69 of 100)
Furman (away) : 24 - 18 W (53 of 100)
Chattanooga (away) : 22- 20 W (41 of 100)
App State (home) : 25 - 14 W (64 of 100)
Howard (home) : 33 - 7 W (62 of 100)
Georgia (away) : 39 - 19 L (0 of 100)

So, it's predicted that the Eagles go 10-1. Also, there is ~95% chance of starting the season 5 - 0.

I see the Chatty and App game going either way, but nothing can be predicted in the SoCon! We'll see!

[Sam_Kats]

This is for year end 2011. A toss up every game if you ask me.

Location Predicted Line

at North Dakota St. North Dakota St. 28.0 Sam Houston St. 24.0 -4.0

Neutral North Dakota St. 26.0 Sam Houston St. 25.0 -1.0

at Sam Houston St. Sam Houston St. 27.0 North Dakota St. 25.0 -2.0

Yeah, but he used last years teams...

[Smitty]

Well this will be interesting

WCU vs. Mars Hill W (Not in the simulator)
WCU @ Marshall L 41-18
WCU @ Wofford L 50-9
WCU vs Samford L 30-21
WCU @ Furman L 45-22
WCU vs Georgia Southern L 47-19
WCU @ Citadel L 33-16
WCU @ Elon L 37-26
WCU vs App St. L 39-22
WCU vs UTC L 40-18
WCU vs Alabama L 58-(-5) Score was kinda funny it gave us -5 points...

[I-16Bandit]

Well this will be interesting

WCU vs. Mars Hill W (Not in the simulator)
WCU @ Marshall L 41-18
WCU @ Wofford L 50-9
WCU vs Samford L 30-21
WCU @ Furman L 45-22
WCU vs Georgia Southern L 47-19
WCU @ Citadel L 33-16
WCU @ Elon L 37-26
WCU vs App St. L 39-22
WCU vs UTC L 40-18
WCU vs Alabama L 58-(-5) Score was kinda funny it gave us -5 points...

You are one loyal and patient fan. I respect you for that.

[Sycamore51]

It had ISU beating the IU Losers 66 out of 100 times! Sounds good to me

[BisonHype!]

Well this will be interesting

WCU vs. Mars Hill W (Not in the simulator)
WCU @ Marshall L 41-18
WCU @ Wofford L 50-9
WCU vs Samford L 30-21
WCU @ Furman L 45-22
WCU vs Georgia Southern L 47-19
WCU @ Citadel L 33-16
WCU @ Elon L 37-26
WCU vs App St. L 39-22
WCU vs UTC L 40-18
WCU vs Alabama L 58-(-5) Score was kinda funny it gave us -5 points...

Ouch. Better find Doc Brown and use the time machine to a time in where you have more wins....xrotatehx

[BisonFan02]

Well this will be interesting

WCU vs. Mars Hill W (Not in the simulator)
WCU @ Marshall L 41-18
WCU @ Wofford L 50-9
WCU vs Samford L 30-21
WCU @ Furman L 45-22
WCU vs Georgia Southern L 47-19
WCU @ Citadel L 33-16
WCU @ Elon L 37-26
WCU vs App St. L 39-22
WCU vs UTC L 40-18
WCU vs Alabama L 58-(-5) Score was kinda funny it gave us -5 points...

See you in Fargo in 9/13! :D

[mmiller_34]

SDSU odds:

L, Kansas wins 85 of 100 vs. SDSU
W, SDSU wins 85 of 100 vs. SE Louisiana
L, UC Davis wins 51 of 100 vs. SDSU (toss up)
L, Indiana St wins 80 of 100 vs. SDSU
W, SDSU wins 61 of 100 vs. Mo. St.
W, SDSU wins 64 of 100 vs. Western Illinois
L, Northern Iowa wins 93 of 100 vs. SDSU
L, Youngstown St. wins 57 of 100 vs. SDSU (toss up)
L, Southern Illinois wins 60 of 100 vs. SDSU
L, NDSU wins 100 of 100 vs. SDSU (wow)
L, USD wins 54 of 100 vs. SDSU (toss up)

3-8. Time to prove 'em wrong.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Yeah, but he used last years teams...

He used this years teams, as in returning starters from last year and significant additions (transfers), and updates it throughout the season as more data is available.

[melloware13]

2012 Projections:

WCU(PA) @ UD (W - not in simulator)
DSU 9 @ UD 46
Bucknell 14 @ UD 28
UD 10 @ W&M 3
UD 30 @ UNH 33
Maine 17 @ UD 29
URI 16 @ UD 35
UD 48 @ ODU 40
Towson 9 @ UD 29
UD 21 @ Richmond 11
Villanova 16 @ UD 40

10-1 (7-1 CAA) Probably results in a high seed.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Eastern Wash.(2012) wins 48 of 100 matchups against Idaho(2012)
Washington St.(2012) wins 97 of 100 matchups against Eastern Wash.(2012)
Eastern Wash.(2012) wins 63 of 100 matchups against Weber St.(2012)
Eastern Wash.(2012) wins 51 of 100 matchups against Montana(2012)
Eastern Wash.(2012) wins 83 of 100 matchups against North Dakota(2012)
Montana St.(2012) wins 52 of 100 matchups against Eastern Wash.(2012)
Eastern Wash.(2012) wins 86 of 100 matchups against Sacramento St.(2012)
Southern Utah(2012) wins 59 of 100 matchups against Eastern Wash.(2012)
Eastern Wash.(2012) wins 82 of 100 matchups against Cal Poly(2012)
Eastern Wash.(2012) wins 80 of 100 matchups against UC Davis(2012)
Eastern Wash.(2012) wins 86 of 100 matchups against Portland St.(2012)


So I'd say between 5-6 and 10-1, with 8-3 or 7-4 most likely (1-2 or 2-1 in the 50/50 games).


I'm definitely no fan of UND but it is interesting to see EWU winning 83/100 games. With UND consistently having good defenses this will not happen. I wouldn't be surprised if they beat EWU this year.

[SpiritCymbal]

For Georgia Southern (averages of 100 games each):

Jacksonville (home) : 44 - 20 W (win 95 of 100)
The Citadel (away) : 30 - 18 W (win 91 of 100)
Elon (home) : 41 - 17 W (win 95 of 100)
Samford (home) : 37 - 16 W (96 of 100)
Western Carolina (away) : 45 - 16 W (100 of 100)
Wofford (home) : 25 - 18 W (69 of 100)
Furman (away) : 24 - 18 W (53 of 100)
Chattanooga (away) : 22- 20 W (41 of 100)
App State (home) : 25 - 14 W (64 of 100)
Howard (home) : 33 - 7 W (62 of 100)
Georgia (away) : 39 - 19 L (0 of 100)

So, it's predicted that the Eagles go 10-1. Also, there is ~95% chance of starting the season 5 - 0.

I see the Chatty and App game going either way, but nothing can be predicted in the SoCon! We'll see!

That it was funny that it predicted us losing to Jacksonville 5 times but Western Carolina 0 times.

[GATA_Eagles]

Nvm, repost

[Ivytalk]

xsmiley_wixxsmiley_wixxsmiley_wixxawesomexxawesome xxawesomexxsmileyclapxxsmileyclapxxhighfivexxhighf ivexxhighfivexHARVARD

San Diego W 36-15
At Brown. W 23-19
Holy Cross W 27-19
Cornell W 32-14
Bucknell W 29-10
At Princeton W 34-18
At Dartmouth W 28-15
Columbia W 37-7
At Penn W 24-22
Yale W 32-18

10-0, boys! Read 'em and weep!

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Lehigh 10-1!!

Lehigh 40 Monmouth 21
Lehigh 38 Central Conn St. 23
Lehigh 41 Princeton 18
Liberty 32 Lehigh 25
Lehigh 37 Fordham 16
Lehigh 41 Columbia 9
Lehigh 32 Georgetown 22
Lehigh 33 Bucknell 13
Lehigh 28 Holy Cross 25
Lehigh 35 Colgate 22
Lehigh 33 Lafayette 23

[Screamin_Eagle174]

I'm definitely no fan of UND but it is interesting to see EWU winning 83/100 games. With UND consistently having good defenses this will not happen. I wouldn't be surprised if they beat EWU this year.

No, you're just an anti EWU fan. I would be very surprised if they beat us this year, especially considering DB is where they're weakest and we will have another gunslinging QB 70/30 pass/run this year. DL is also the strength of our D this year, so stopping the run shouldn't be too much of a problem.

[TheBisonator]

No, you're just an anti EWU fan. I would be very surprised if they beat us this year, especially considering DB is where they're weakest and we will have another gunslinging QB 70/30 pass/run this year. DL is also the strength of our D this year, so stopping the run shouldn't be too much of a problem.

I'm what you would call an "anti-EWU fan" (Never Forget 2010) and I hope that EWU kicks und's butts this year. And I believe they will.

Because I'm more of an "anti-UND fan". :D

[Screamin_Eagle174]

I'm what you would call an "anti-EWU fan" (Never Forget 2010) and I hope that EWU kicks und's butts this year. And I believe they will.

Because I'm more of an "anti-UND fan". :D

xlolx

I hope our ADs get together and schedule a H&H, those would be two highly anticipated games. Although barring injuries, I'd say there's a fairly decent chance we'll meet in the playoffs this year.

[frozennorth]

With UND consistently having good defenses

twilight zone

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

twilight zone


UND has had good defenses in the D2 era is where I was going with that.

Their "pistol" offense or whatever it is called now is not a grind it out type offense, IMO. If they become a team that plays hard-nose defense and runs the ball and passes off of that, IMO, they can be successful in the Big Sky.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

xlolx

I hope our ADs get together and schedule a H&H, those would be two highly anticipated games. Although barring injuries, I'd say there's a fairly decent chance we'll meet in the playoffs this year.



I hope NDSU has another game with EWU this year so I can see this great DL.

UND will surprise some teams in the BS this year.

[darell1976]

UND has had good defenses in the D2 era is where I was going with that.

Their "pistol" offense or whatever it is called now is not a grind it out type offense, IMO. If they become a team that plays hard-nose defense and runs the ball and passes off of that, IMO, they can be successful in the Big Sky.

Yeah that pistol offense that sucked in 2010 is now just a play or two not our offense any more...maybe thats why UND went from 3-8 to 8-3. And SE is right that UND's DB will have its hands full with their QB as proof with the 2011 UND vs UNC game when their QB threw over 400 yards against our secondary. But UND is desperately trying to add the passing game to its offense in situations like SE described. If their DL stops Jake Miller then UND's QB (most likely Braden Hanson) will air it out. I think it could be a shootout.

[ebemiss]

100 game match up seems to be loading much faster. try it now.

http://www.nationalsportsrankings.com/index.php?option=com_oneonone&magic=3003

[Screamin_Eagle174]

100 game match up seems to be loading much faster. try it now.

http://www.nationalsportsrankings.com/index.php?option=com_oneonone&magic=3003

Much faster. Better results for EWU too.

astern Wash.(2012) wins 61 of 100 matchups against Idaho(2012) - Margin of Victory: 3 Points
Washington St.(2012) wins 98 of 100 matchups against Eastern Wash.(2012) - Margin of Victory: 17 Points
Eastern Wash.(2012) wins 57 of 100 matchups against Weber St.(2012) - Margin of Victory: 3 Points
Eastern Wash.(2012) wins 54 of 100 matchups against Montana(2012) - Margin of Victory: 0 Points
Eastern Wash.(2012) wins 86 of 100 matchups against North Dakota(2012) - Margin of Victory: 11 Points
Eastern Wash.(2012) wins 55 of 100 matchups against Montana St.(2012) - Margin of Victory: 0 Points
Eastern Wash.(2012) wins 89 of 100 matchups against Sacramento St.(2012) - Margin of Victory: 13 Points
Southern Utah(2012) wins 52 of 100 matchups against Eastern Wash.(2012) - Margin of Victory: 1 Points
Eastern Wash.(2012) wins 84 of 100 matchups against Cal Poly(2012) - Margin of Victory: 8 Points
Eastern Wash.(2012) wins 78 of 100 matchups against UC Davis(2012) - Margin of Victory: 6 Points
Eastern Wash.(2012) wins 88 of 100 matchups against Portland St.(2012) - Margin of Victory: 11 Points

10-1 best likely outcome, 7-4 worst likely, 9-2 most likely.

[CrazyCat]

Much faster. Better results for EWU too.

10-1 best likely outcome, 7-4 worst likely, 9-2 most likely.

Might want to check who you have at home when you run it.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Might want to check who you have at home when you run it.

Every game in that prediction was in it's proper location.

[CrazyCat]

Just wondering. I get something different for both MSU and UM vs. EWU. xpeacex