New ranking formula i've been working on....

[eagle07]

I've come up with a new ranking formula that gives +-Points for wins/losses, but not all wins/losses are created equally under the rules of the formula. Below is my current scoring system.

Points System

Teams Start with points equal to Preseason top 25 Ranking

Team Ranked #1 = 25 Pts

Team Ranked #25 = 1 Pts

Unranked = 0 Pts

If multiple teams have same score near bottom of top 25 (22,23,24,25) extending beyond top 25, none of those teams are given top 25 status, therefore losses/wins against them are +-5 pts (If same scenario happens within top 5 and top 10 levels, the tied teams are given status of the level below top5=top10, top10=top25

Win = +5 Pts
Win vs top 25 = +10 Pts
win vs top 10 = +20 Pts
top 25 win vs top 25 = 15 Pts
top 10 win vs top 10 = +20 Pts
top 5 win vs top 5 = +25 Pts
top 25 loss vs unranked = - 20 Pts
top 25 loss vs top 25 = -15 Pts
top 25 loss vs top 10 = -10 Pts
top 10 loss vs top 10 = -5 Pts
top 5 loss vs top 5 = -5 Pts
other FCS loss = -5
Loss vs BCS = 0 points
Win vs FBS = +15 Pts
win vs FBS Top 25 = +25pts
Win vs DII or lower = +2 Pts
Loss vs DII or lower = -15 Pts

I am working on a retro poll using the 2011 AGS preseason poll as the jumping off spot and using 2011 scores as the data. Poll started out really wild but started to clear up around week 5/6. It is not complete but feel free to check it out, when compared to AGS poll of same weeks last year there are many similarities with some surprises. If you guys like it, I will do it weekly next year.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AovxbYJtY1njdEJxWmNNTjhuR2JJaElLaHNBMWRJW Gc&gid=0

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Looks interesting eag. Are you looking for input on it as far as critique? The one I see right away that might make it better is to have different point values based on the season being broke into 3rd's. In college it's so dynamic with new players and so forth the first four games and the last four games can look like a completely different team even with the same basic personnel.

[Apphole]

Loss vs DII or lover = -15 Pts

I lose to my lover all the time. She's a killer. I must be in the -thousands at this point.

[eagle07]

Looks interesting eag. Are you looking for input on it as far as critique? The one I see right away that might make it better is to have different point values based on the season being broke into 3rd's. In college it's so dynamic with new players and so forth the first four games and the last four games can look like a completely different team even with the same basic personnel.

Urs, that may be a good idea.... what do you think about changing scoring for just games involving top 25 in different parts of the season?, i think the games that have nothing to do with top 25 should remain +-5 points, what ya think?

[eagle07]

I lose to my lover all the time. She's a killer. I must be in the -thousands at this point.

Nice catch, gold star for reading all the way to the bottom

[GlassOnion]

Whats with the 5 scale? Whack it out a bit, how about some 3s and 7s?

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Urs, that may be a good idea.... what do you think about changing scoring for just games involving top 25 in different parts of the season?, i think the games that have nothing to do with top 25 should remain +-5 points, what ya think?

I think the point system is a pretty good spot for the final 3 or 4 games depending on 11/12 and you might just want to see how much volitility is taken out by using a progression of something along the idea of:

First four-50%
Next four-75%
final 3/4-100%

It just jumps out that an early season loss when things aren't really gellin' might not give you nearly the result of what actually happens at the end of the season. I'm only talking about the losses side of it here cuz this is sort of off the cuff and haven't put thought into it either other than initial reaction.

[eagle07]

Whats with the 5 scale? Whack it out a bit, how about some 3s and 7s?

makes my brain hurt thinking about it lol

[GlassOnion]

makes my brain hurt thinking about it lol

Just eeeassse into it then, lets say a 7 point App bonus! Ya'll can take the 3!

[eagle07]

Im interested to see what it looks like at the end of the season, I have also been thinking about scoring for the playoffs but havent really put that to paper yet. Was thinking +(5,5,10,15,25) for the winner of games in the respective rounds, no negatives for playoff losses....

[GlassOnion]

Im interested to see what it looks like at the end of the season, I have also been thinking about scoring for the playoffs but havent really put that to paper yet. Was thinking +(5,5,10,15,25) for the winner of games in the respective rounds, no negatives for playoff losses....

Why dont you test it out on last years socon, then you'll have a final poll to compare it to.

[HailSzczur]

I can't think of a way to differentiate between FBS losses. I mean theres a big difference between what happened when we played Temple last year and when Maine had Pitt sweating and were only 1 on side kick away from winning the game.

Other than that I like it

[eagle07]

I can't think of a way to differentiate between FBS losses. I mean theres a big difference between what happened when we played Temple last year and when Maine had Pitt sweating and were only 1 on side kick away from winning the game.

Other than that I like it

Yea, i may need to make some sort of "points lost by" scoring scale for FBS losses, maybe like <5 = 0, <20 = -5 Others -10 instead of just 0

[ursus arctos horribilis]

I can't think of a way to differentiate between FBS losses. I mean theres a big difference between what happened when we played Temple last year and when Maine had Pitt sweating and were only 1 on side kick away from winning the game.

Other than that I like it

Well you could figure out the average score against top 25 FBS teavs vs. FCS teams and then whatever that point value is...say 20 you get one point added for each point you shave off the average and one point deducted for each point over the average. You lose by 28 then it's a -8 weekend. You lose by 3 then congrats, your up 17 on the weekend.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Yea, i may need to make some sort of "points lost by" scoring scale for FBS losses, maybe like <5 = 0, <20 = -5 Others -10 instead of just 0


Well you could figure out the average score against top 25 FBS teavs vs. FCS teams and then whatever that point value is...say 20 you get one point added for each point you shave off the average and one point deducted for each point over the average. You lose by 28 then it's a -8 weekend. You lose by 3 then congrats, your up 17 on the weekend.

There ya go.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Once you set up the sheet with a column for point differentials like Supe has made then it's a pretty easy formula since the number will be static on the avg. margin of victory for that year. You'd have to refigure it each year if you were looking to make this a going concern.

I'd like to help ya by coming up with the average cuz that's the part that will take some work eag but I just don't have the time right now.

[asumike83]

I think it's a great idea, could be a lot of fun. My only input would be that if a loss to an unranked FCS team is -20, a win over a top 25 FBS team should probably be more than +25. I also think a DII loss should be at least -25, that really shouldn't be happening to a decent FCS team. Just my $.02 but I love the concept and the other numbers look spot on to me.

[eagle07]

Once you set up the sheet with a column for point differentials like Supe has made then it's a pretty easy formula since the number will be static on the avg. margin of victory for that year. You'd have to refigure it each year if you were looking to make this a going concern.

I'd like to help ya by coming up with the average cuz that's the part that will take some work eag but I just don't have the time right now.

Your the man, that's a great idea. If anyone wants to find a list of 2011 FBS/FCS and complile the avg margin of defeat I would very much appreciate it. That would be great, i would do it and may still but im about burnt out from looking at scores the last few nights LOL

[alvinkayak6]

Just FYI --

"Polling" refers to collecting opinions or votes. I believe you are advocating a "ranking" system.

Sagarin and numerous other computer scientists have developed ranking systems that are widely used. While well-intentioned, I don't see your exercise as adding much value. xtwocentsx

[nwFL Griz]

I think it is a little off to have a higher negative value attached to a top 25 losing to an FCS unranked than losing to a DII or lower.

[jmufan999]

Haven't read all (read: any) of the comments. Probably won't.

I think there should be a greater penalty for losing to a D-II and 0 points for beating a D-II. 1 point if you want to be generous. Really shouldn't be given much of anything for that win.

Otherwise, I like where you're going with this.

[StorminASU]

"New Polling Formula I've been working on..."

That's what she said???

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Just FYI --

"Polling" refers to collecting opinions or votes. I believe you are advocating a "ranking" system.

Sagarin and numerous other computer scientists have developed ranking systems that are widely used. While well-intentioned, I don't see your exercise as adding much value. xtwocentsx

Ralph is that you?
:D

All true but, why not try and do a community effort to see what we can come up with for a grasss roots effort for FCS?

Hell we all like bull****ting anyway and that always go nowhere so if this is like that there is no downside.

Lots of sharp people here so maybe a great idea comes out of it.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

I think it is a little off to have a higher negative value attached to a top 25 losing to an FCS unranked than losing to a DII or lower.

Agreed, I didn't even notice that.

[alvinkayak6]

Ralph is that you?
:D

All true but, why not try and do a community effort to see what we can come up with for a grasss roots effort for FCS?

Hell we all like bull****ting anyway and that always go nowhere so if this is like that there is no downside.

Lots of sharp people here so maybe a great idea comes out of it.

How about someone develops a way to rank teams *for* the preseason. Develop a system for ranking a team based upon if the coach is returning, the QB is returning, the average points scored each game. If there was a domain for original research, I would think that would be the way to go. The whole in-season ranking world is already saturated with MIT graduates who take their same methods and make bank off Vegas. In fact, they have a whole conference for it:
http://www.sloansportsconference.com/

[ursus arctos horribilis]

How about someone develops a way to rank teams *for* the preseason. Develop a system for ranking a team based upon if the coach is returning, the QB is returning, the average points scored each game. If there was a domain for original research, I would think that would be the way to go. The whole in-season ranking world is already saturated with MIT graduates who take their same methods and make bank off Vegas. In fact, they have a whole conference for it:
http://www.sloansportsconference.com/

About three years ago I wanted to do a playoff predictor poll/ranking. I had quite the notes stash but it could be vetted out and tested against past results and see if the AGS group could do a community effort. There's OK stuff out there now but there are a ton of guys that have specific gripes about what is out and how to improve, or attempt to improve the tool.

[Cleets]

While well-intentioned, I don't see your exercise as adding much value.

Interesting: I feel the exact same way about your the majority of your post...

[eagle07]

Just FYI --

"Polling" refers to collecting opinions or votes. I believe you are advocating a "ranking" system.

Sagarin and numerous other computer scientists have developed ranking systems that are widely used. While well-intentioned, I don't see your exercise as adding much value. xtwocentsx

He is right, could a mod change the name of the thread and replace "polling" with "ranking".

[eagle07]

Thanks for all the comments so far guys, I want this to be a community partnership. I think im going to try and finish out working that 2011 season spreadsheet with the original points or else it would be all screwed up, then start over with a different points system. Maybe we can put all of the new ideas in a poll on the forum and see what everyone likes, then redo the 2011 season again with the adjusted points.

[citdog]

Haven't read all (read: any) of the comments. Probably won't.




then keep your uninformed opinion in your cockholster

[alvinkayak6]

Interesting: I feel the exact same way about your the majority of your post...

xangelx

[RichH2]

Gee, I got chills when you mentioned Ralph, nevertheless , the idea looks like a lot of fun. I am sure that with sufficient tweaking of the +/- values the reult will be as accurate as any other of the systems and perhaps a bit more as it is centered on FCS as opposed to all of DivI. More importantly it will be fun. Heck we already have the best Top 25 poll , why not the best ranking system as well.

[alvinkayak6]

Gee, I got chills when you mentioned Ralph, nevertheless , the idea looks like a lot of fun. I am sure that with sufficient tweaking of the +/- values the reult will be as accurate as any other of the systems and perhaps a bit more as it is centered on FCS as opposed to all of DivI. More importantly it will be fun. Heck we already have the best Top 25 poll , why not the best ranking system as well.

I'm afraid I poisoned the well. Where is the retract emoticon?

Maybe xbeerchugx will satiate the angry mobs. xthumbsupx

[RichH2]

I'm afraid I poisoned the well. Where is the retract emoticon?

Maybe xbeerchugx will satiate the angry mobs. xthumbsupx

Nope, just been around AGS a very long time and would not like to revisit some few bad times. :(

Always ready tohoist a beer or 4 with an AGS guy xhypedx

[UAalum72]

Surprised you-know-who hasn't posted yet with some blather that wins vs Pioneer League teams should count for less than D-II or 'non-top-25-FCS' wins.

[RichH2]

Surprised you-know-who hasn't posted yet with some blather that wins vs Pioneer League teams should count for less than D-II or 'non-top-25-FCS' wins.

Shhhh, let's leave"him"over on that thread. He's busy congratulating himself for how right he is.xcrazyx

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Thanks for all the comments so far guys, I want this to be a community partnership. I think im going to try and finish out working that 2011 season spreadsheet with the original points or else it would be all screwed up, then start over with a different points system. Maybe we can put all of the new ideas in a poll on the forum and see what everyone likes, then redo the 2011 season again with the adjusted points.

Hell yeah you finish it off and maybe run a couple tests and see how it works vs. what really happened. It will point out areas that could be improved.

We'll put a group together and work on this. Thanks for reigniting that old fire cuz I haven't worked on that ranking/projection thing in a couple years.

[eagle07]

Once we work out the kinks, this thing will also need a name, i figure we toss around a few and then vote on it. I believe once I get done with that 2011 season (hopefully this weekend) we will see the end season rankings are not far off. I'm hoping that ODU works its way into the mid top 25 and Chattanooga bounces around and ends up right outside the top 25 like it should be. Thats just two teams that I have been keeping a closer eye one while updating the data. Chattanooga last year was a much better team than their record showed last year and I'm hoping the points system works that out in the end. Should give us an idea of what needs to be changed.

[Cleets]

Once we work out the kinks, this thing will also need a name, i figure we toss around a few and then vote on it. I believe once I get done with that 2011 season (hopefully this weekend) we will see the end season rankings are not far off. I'm hoping that ODU works its way into the mid top 25 and Chattanooga bounces around and ends up right outside the top 25 like it should be. Thats just two teams that I have been keeping a closer eye one while updating the data. Chattanooga last year was a much better team than their record showed last year and I'm hoping the points system works that out in the end. Should give us an idea of what needs to be changed.

I got two words for you: Stony Brook

Dude, though seriously
I'm fairly excited about this whole thing and the name will be critical (in my opinion)

[BucBisonAtLarge]

Eagle, I appreciate your efforts but one of my frustrations is the lack of OOC FCS play which makes the conference comparisons more fodder for the board than something like calculus. I am not sure you get us any closer, but I agree that , by using this past season on a few subsets of the subdivision, you could check the validity. I also encourage any tester to use a few conferences, one like the Southern, CAA or MVFC, as well as one like the OVC, Patriot or Big South. Conference schedules are fixed, and tend to reinforce any stratification which happened in the OOC portion of the schedules. Any one of your parameters might be defensible, but how does it hold up... I am such a math geek, but its the data entry that would kill me.

[eagle07]

I got two words for you: Stony Brook

Dude, though seriously
I'm fairly excited about this whole thing and the name will be critical (in my opinion)


Updated through week nine, working on week 10, stony brook has cracked top 25 for week 10

[Cleets]

Updated through week nine, working on week 10, stony brook has cracked top 25 for week 10

That proves it..!!!!
The Stony Brook factor is the true X factor
I'm liking where this is going

[ursus arctos horribilis]

That proves it..!!!!
The Stony Brook factor is the true X factor
I'm liking where this is going

It's a good sign but the AGS Poll also had SB at 32, 25, & 20 in wks 10, 11, 12 so it is following the correct path to have the appropriate lesser respected team in there.

[Cleets]

It's a good sign but the AGS Poll also had SB at 32, 25, & 20 in wks 10, 11, 12 so it is following the correct path to have the appropriate lesser respected team in there.

Just let me enjoy this without being a douche for once...

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Just let me enjoy this without being a douche for once...

Of course the proper way to greet that news would be to say "Hey man, the voters are very keen to pick up on these things" and give an atta boy to those with the ability to see it on the human side.

The proper way to look at is most certainly NOT to put yourself into the mix as if you were the point of the effort.

The next logical step would seem to be to carry this information over into the next phase to see if this is the way we can come up with a well rounded system for predicting the playoff field nad possibly come as close as possible to the final results.

Paying a little more attention to this place and the things going on around here would help also. Really looking forward to your adinistration of the poll in the upcoming season.:D

I really wasn't trying to hack away at you in the previous post. I understand you would not be used to that however.xlolx

[eagle07]

Just let me enjoy this without being a douche for once...

extra credit for using the word douche.... lol