Patriot League Recruiting - HOLY CROSS

[CrusaderBob]

Holy Cross announced their incoming recruits yesterday.

http://www.goholycross.com/sports/m-footbl/2011-12/releases/201202280owc1t

We anxiously await the committee's analysis, carney. xnodx

[tourguide]

only 2 instate players? Is that common??

[breezy]

only 2 instate players? Is that common??

I think it is not that unusual. But HC's recruit class this year is somewhat different than usual. One-third of the class is from Texas, California and Florida -- higher than usual. No recruits from Ohio or Virginia -- very much out of the ordinary. Two recruits from Georgia -- an area where HC has not had any recruits in recent years. Two each from New York and New Jersey -- usually higher than that.

[breezy]

Carney --

Some tidbits for consideration by the Committee.

Three of the recruits (Atkins, Martinez, Zakrzewski) are HS Class of 2011. Each was rated last year. Including them, 17 of the 30 recruits are rated by one or more of Scout.com, Yahoo/Rivals, or ESPN. There is lots of speed in this class, although it may not be fully evident just by reviewing the recruiting sites. I know that speeds shown on highlight videos are prone to puffery (and even outright exaggeration), but 2 of HC's non-rated recruits are reported to have 4.5 speed. There are only 4 jumbos (plus one that just misses), but Gilmore in the last couple of years seems to be emphasizing quickness rather than size.

Most importantly, HC has addressed its primary needs. Biggest need was LB -- there are 6 in this class; 3 of them are rated. Next was OL -- there are 4 in this class, and all 4 are rated. Third was WR -- there are 4, and two of them are rated.

The Committee may be discouraged that there is only 1 QB in the class -- but even though he is not rated, he is from Texas and he has good size and (based on his video) a strong arm. In addition, HC has three rising sophomore QBs, two of whom were highly touted recruits last year. Two of the 3 RBs in the class are rated. Only 1 of the 4 DLs is rated, and he may seem to be undersized (by weight, not height), but HC returns all of its DL starters from last year, so they will have time to develop.

One of the things I look for is -- how many of the recruits were captain of their teams in HS? Leadership potential is, in my view, a very important intangible. By my count, 24 of the 30 HC recruits served as captain of their HS teams. (It's possible that this is not unusual, because recruits tend to be one of the better players -- if not the best player -- on their HS teams and would be logical choices to serve as captain.)

I have not attempted to calculate except in the most general way what HC's Patsy score might be, but I anticipate that it will be in the 60s. Size, quality and distribution scores should be good; jumbo and trigger scores will be relatively low; meeting needs should get fairly close to the maximum. Additionally, I think this class will merit some upward adjustment by the Committee when it concludes its deliberations.

[carney2]

Oops. Too busy paying attention to Holy Cross hoops. Need to switch gears. It will be a day or two.

[carney2]

Carney --

Some tidbits for consideration by the Committee.

Three of the recruits (Atkins, Martinez, Zakrzewski) are HS Class of 2011. Each was rated last year. Including them, 17 of the 30 recruits are rated by one or more of Scout.com, Yahoo/Rivals, or ESPN. There is lots of speed in this class, although it may not be fully evident just by reviewing the recruiting sites. I know that speeds shown on highlight videos are prone to puffery (and even outright exaggeration), but 2 of HC's non-rated recruits are reported to have 4.5 speed. There are only 4 jumbos (plus one that just misses), but Gilmore in the last couple of years seems to be emphasizing quickness rather than size.

Most importantly, HC has addressed its primary needs. Biggest need was LB -- there are 6 in this class; 3 of them are rated. Next was OL -- there are 4 in this class, and all 4 are rated. Third was WR -- there are 4, and two of them are rated.

The Committee may be discouraged that there is only 1 QB in the class -- but even though he is not rated, he is from Texas and he has good size and (based on his video) a strong arm. In addition, HC has three rising sophomore QBs, two of whom were highly touted recruits last year. Two of the 3 RBs in the class are rated. Only 1 of the 4 DLs is rated, and he may seem to be undersized (by weight, not height), but HC returns all of its DL starters from last year, so they will have time to develop.

One of the things I look for is -- how many of the recruits were captain of their teams in HS? Leadership potential is, in my view, a very important intangible. By my count, 24 of the 30 HC recruits served as captain of their HS teams. (It's possible that this is not unusual, because recruits tend to be one of the better players -- if not the best player -- on their HS teams and would be logical choices to serve as captain.)

I have not attempted to calculate except in the most general way what HC's Patsy score might be, but I anticipate that it will be in the 60s. Size, quality and distribution scores should be good; jumbo and trigger scores will be relatively low; meeting needs should get fairly close to the maximum. Additionally, I think this class will merit some upward adjustment by the Committee when it concludes its deliberations.

Thanks for the info and the road directions. A few notes so that you are not "disappointed:"

I will not be pulling ratings from prior years. Not that it isn't relevant, it's just that other schools do not have advocates such as you, AND this is enough of a nightmare without applying multi-year searches to every recruit.

I will be using the "regular" sources for speed. Again, the other schools do not have folks like you doing the pre-screening, so accepting that information for one school only creates an unfair advantage and slants the ratings.

You are correct in your assessment of Needs. I will be using 1 = LB, 2 = OL, 3 = WR based on submissions from folks like you back in December.

I continue to struggle with time allotments for this one. Day job pressures have intervened. I don't expect results until tonight or tomorrow.

[breezy]

Understand on several levels.

Do not desire to impose extra burdens on you.

Appreciate your wish to be fair to other schools.

Day job pressures can really be a pain sometimes.

[RichH2]

Bosses and wives can be so unreasonable. I just do not understand how they cannot aline their priorities to minexpissedx

[carney2]

Bosses and wives can be so unreasonable. I just do not understand how they cannot aline their priorities to minexpissedx

Yeah, but in this case, I'm the "boss." Sometimes you just have to convince the employees that you're working as hard as they are.

Sorry, breezy, the saders won't be cracking 60. At this point I have the number, but not the write-up.

[ngineer]

Oops. Too busy paying attention to Holy Cross hoops. Need to switch gears. It will be a day or two.

Not much to watch there...

[carney2]

HOLY CROSS - 54

Coach Gilmore and his staff apparently logged a lot of frequent flier miles in assembling this class. They signed 5 from Texas, 4 from California and 4 from Florida/Georgia, but only 2 from their home base in Massachusetts. It is always good to see Patriot League schools recruiting nationally. Also, the Crossers seem to be in the running for multiple selections to the Patriot League All-Unusual First Name team with Dabness, Coan and Elad heading for first team selections. Unfortunately, there is nothing in the basic research to indicate that the 'saders have put together a recruiting class for the ages in 2012. Let's take a look at the numbers.

THE GOOD
- 30 is a great number for a Patriot League non-scholarship recruiting class. Is it an attempt to put bodies on the shelves before the presumably smaller scholarship recruiting classes kick in next year?
- To a man, The Committee will be following the career of Cross's 240 lb RB recruit. That, by the way, is a 240 lb. RUNNING back, not a FB – at least that is how he is listed in the press release.

THE BAD
- Lots of bodies. Not a lot of quality.
- Size appears to be a problem. Jumbos are lacking in the down linemen, and none of the WR recruits climb the ladder to 6 ft.

QUALITY = 16: 14 are Rated (47%), one a 1-star. This is the category where most classes pile up the Patsy Points. They get them in two ways: (1) a large proportion of the class is Rated, if not starred (see Lafayette this year), and/or there are a significant number of recruits with star ratings, including a bunch of 2-stars (see some of the Lehigh and Georgetown classes from prior years). This Holy Cross recruiting class does not do either.

CLASS SIZE = 6: 30 Recruits.

DISTRIBUTION =8: Gilmore touched all the bases. A reminder that TE is no longer considered in this category.

SPEED = 10: The usual disclaimer that reliable speed information is hard to come by.

TRIGGER = 0: One QB, unrated.

JUMBO = 4: 4 OL and 4 DL; 2 OL and 2 DL meet and beat the Jumbo criteria.

NEEDS = 10 (of 12):
LB = 5 (of 5): 6 recruits, 3 Rated, none with stars. Some debate: 6 recruits vs. so-so Ratings.
OL = 3 (of 4): 4 recruits, All Rated, 2 Jumbos. The basic numbers look pretty good until you find out that the average size of this group is 271. Sorry, folks, the size of a Patriot League offensive lineman is getting outlandishly large, and this just doesn't cut it. You can say that size isn't everything, but you can't coach it if it isn't there. Besides, a truly athletic offensive lineman is probably not going to end up in the PL.
WR = 2 (of 3): 4 recruits, 2 rated, one a 1-star, unconfirmed. The Committee would like to see some of these guys edging above 6 feet and would also like to see some reported speed. Even the 1-star is not a burner.

COMMITTEE ADJUSTMENTS = O
This year The Committee has clamped down on the assignment of Adjustment points. In the past, opinions have been reflected here, and it is felt that they have detracted from the overall objectivity of the Ratings. This year (and in the future, if there is a future) Committee Adjustments will be used only to correct perceived inequities created by the Ratings methodology. Fortunately or unfortunately, no inequities are obvious in the Holy Cross Rating. Still, The Committee has a feeling that maybe, just maybe, this class is a little – and only a little – better than the numbers indicate.

THE RATINGS RACE WITH 3 TO GO:

Lafayette 67
Lehigh 62
Holy Cross 54
Fordham 47

[breezy]

Point of information --

I understood that speed points were awarded as follows: 4.8 = 1 point; 4.7 = 2 points; 4.6 = 3 points; etc.

According to recognized web sites, the following recruits in this class had the following speeds:

Osei-Boaten -- 4.6 (Yahoo/Rivals)
Buzzard -- 4.65 (Yahoo/Rivals)
Covaliu -- 4.58 (ESPN)
Frank -- 4.79 (ESPN)

Either my understanding of the system is wrong (and the Committee may certainly correct me), or this should result in 9 or 10 speed points, not 6.

In addition --

I request that the Committee consider a HYPOTHETICAL rating based on the following:

As previously mentioned, this class includes 3 players who were 2011 HS graduates -- one (a Scout.com 2*) committed to Air Force, but decided to leave and is now enrolled at HC; the other two (both rated) did a post-graduate year at prep school. One (Martinez) had 4.7 speed according to ESPN). This would increase the percentage of rated players to 57%, with one 2* and one 1*.

HYPOTHETICALLY, with this additional information, how would the Patsy Rating change. (I understand that the actual rating will not change -- unless corrected for the speed information provided above.)

[Bogus Megapardus]

It would appear that certain Crusader partisans are interested in knowing the details of the appeal process. I'd always thought that the Committee's findings were final and absolute.

[carney2]

Point of information --

I understood that speed points were awarded as follows: 4.8 = 1 point; 4.7 = 2 points; 4.6 = 3 points; etc.

According to recognized web sites, the following recruits in this class had the following speeds:

Osei-Boaten -- 4.6 (Yahoo/Rivals)
Buzzard -- 4.65 (Yahoo/Rivals)
Covaliu -- 4.58 (ESPN)
Frank -- 4.79 (ESPN)

Either my understanding of the system is wrong (and the Committee may certainly correct me), or this should result in 9 or 10 speed points, not 6.

In addition --

I request that the Committee consider a HYPOTHETICAL rating based on the following:

As previously mentioned, this class includes 3 players who were 2011 HS graduates -- one (a Scout.com 2*) committed to Air Force, but decided to leave and is now enrolled at HC; the other two (both rated) did a post-graduate year at prep school. One (Martinez) had 4.7 speed according to ESPN). This would increase the percentage of rated players to 57%, with one 2* and one 1*.

HYPOTHETICALLY, with this additional information, how would the Patsy Rating change. (I understand that the actual rating will not change -- unless corrected for the speed information provided above.)

My speed gun got the following readings:

Osei-Boaten, 4.6 on Rivals = 3 Patsy Points
Buzzard, 4.7 on Rivals = 2 Patsy Points (Rivals does not go the extra digit to the right of the decimal)
Covaliu did not register on my ESPN search
Frank, 4.79 on ESPN = 1 Patsy Point

As for the hypotheticals, be my guest.

Thank you again for your interest and input. You are the most invested and technically competent individual that I know of with regard to this inane and insane process.

[breezy]

Covaliu is misspelled as "Covaliv" on ESPN.

(As for Buzzard, a Y/R search brings up his name and shows speed at 4.7. If you then click on the name and go to his page with his picture, the speed there is 4.65.)

I asked for the hypothetical because I am not sure how you would score the "Quality" factor if you considered the facts I posited.

Thanks for the compliment. As I have said on many occasions, I very much appreciate the time and effort you put into these Patsy Ratings.

[carney2]

You did one for me so I'll do one for you.

WHAT YOU DID FOR ME:
Thanks for the info. Another freakin' misspelling! Last time it was the school; this time the rating service. If we do this again the rule will be that only recruits with a maximum of 5 letters in their last name, two vowels, and no consecutive consonants will be considered in the Patsy Ratings. Even Smith will be off the table. Anyway, I have revised the ratings and HC now rests at 54.

FOR YOU, A HYPOTHETICAL:
IF the 2011 info from the rating services had been dragged into this, the HC Patsy Rating total would have gone up by at least 8 points - and that is without redoing the Needs analysis. It does beg the question however, of what happened for the 2012 rating service assessments? The three recruits in question undoubtedly played football somewhere in the fall of 2011. Where are they in the systems? It is my experience that prep school (not juco) players are considered by the rating services the same as high school players.

[breezy]

Thanks. That comes pretty close to where I had calculated.

From what I have figured out -- Atkins decided Air Force Academy was not where he wanted to be, so he dropped out and apparently did not play football in 2011. It appears that he has enrolled at HC for the spring semester. Zakrzewski (from Michigan) went to the Taft School and Martinez (from Texas) went to Loomis Chaffee -- both prep schools in Connecticut. Martinez was captain of the team at Loomis Chaffee. Taft went undefeated and won the New England Prep School championship. My experience with the recruiting web sites is that while some prep school players are considered, they do not necessarily follow them -- especially when it is a one-year deal (as it was for both of these players). I do not know how other PL coaches feel, but I have the sense (no inside information) that Gilmore likes to recruit prep school players -- the extra year of maturity is, to some extent, analogous to a red-shirt year.

Incidentally, all three of these players are listed as DBs (somewhat surprising for Zakrzewski since he seems to have played LB until now). Martinez apparently also played some WR. So, these players should not have any effect on the needs analysis.

[carney2]

A passing thought - if, breezy, you're thinking that HC is better than the ratings indicate, you're probably right. If, on the other hand, you're thinking that HC is closer to the top of the ratings because of your "hypotheticals," maybe not. I'm betting that most of these schools have a "hypothetical" of one kind or another lurking on their recruit lists.

[breezy]

I'm thinking that you are probably right about that. Lafayette got some good players -- including a few that HC was recruiting -- although I have not really studied the recruit lists for Lafayette and Lehigh in any detail and really am not sufficiently informed to try to make any comparison.

Of course, as you have noted by your composite analysis of recruit classes over several years, one recruit class standing alone is pretty meaningless. (I'm expecting HC to contend for the PL title this year. To some degree, this is due to the excellent recruiting class from two years ago that will be juniors this fall, combined with some very good seniors and some very promising sophomores.)

As I mentioned, two or three of HC's non-rated recruits are reported to have 4.5 speed. Undoubtedly, there could be some puffery involved there. I've noticed that Gilmore seems willing to take a chance on a couple of recruits each year just based on speed. (You've said you can't coach size -- I think the same is true for speed.) Whether this will bear any fruit will be determined over the next couple of years. It's probably a gamble that PL teams will be unable to take over the next few years because of limitations imposed by going to scholarships.

One thing I did notice. Both HC and Lehigh were recruiting (and supposedly offered) a DE from Ohio named Josh Padgett, who eventually committed to Fordham. I'm pretty sure that Padgett was not listed by any of the recruiting web sites. However, according to scoutingohio.com, more than a dozen FCS schools made offers to him. That tells me that this young man has something, and will likely be a force in the PL over the next several years.

One other thought. This year's HC recruiting class differs from those in previous years because of the geographical diversity that you noted in your analysis. There are more recruits from "football-crazy" states and also several recruits from national power HS teams that sent several other players to major FBS programs. Possibly (and hopefully), these are recruits that are "under-appreciated" by the recruiting web sites. Time will tell.

I've enjoyed our dialogue. Thanks.

[CrusaderBob]

I will not be pulling ratings from prior years. Not that it isn't relevant, it's just that other schools do not have advocates such as you, AND this is enough of a nightmare without applying multi-year searches to every recruit.



While the denizens of this board would not want to inflict nightmare on the committee and so, would not expect the committee to apply multi-year searches, one would also think that in the name of accuracy of prediction and continual improvement of the Patsy Ratings, the committee would consider such information when provided to them on a silver platter.

It wouild also encourage denizens of this board to become advocates for the the school of their choice and therefore make the committee's job easier and reduce the nighmares presented by current methodology.

Certainly such information, while not fully considered in the rankings, would be worth committee adjustment points. xnodx :D xlolx

[Bogus Megapardus]

It seems to me also that the Committee has stated its recognition that the Patsy standards will have to change with the advent of merit aid. It might not be all that helpful at this juncture to examine things in retrospect when it all will look so different going forward. That said, this will be that last need aid-only class, and it might do some good to re-examine the present class at some later point when the heaven-sent scholarship guys have fully populated PL rosters and have rendered us the indubitable regents of FCS football. xlolx

That said, assessment of the recalcitrant Hoyas under a uniform standard will become problematic, I suppose.

[RichH2]

Agree that Patsy can be tweaked even with merit aid to compare PL recruit classes. The more I think about it, merit aid may change the level of PL recruits a bit but it is unlikely to substantially alter the landscape as among PL teams ( other than Hoyas). The major impact to PL will be its competitiveness OOC

[carney2]

Agree that Patsy can be tweaked even with merit aid to compare PL recruit classes. The more I think about it, merit aid may change the level of PL recruits a bit but it is unlikely to substantially alter the landscape as among PL teams ( other than Hoyas). The major impact to PL will be its competitiveness OOC

The next few years will be very interesting. The wild cards in my opinion are Colgate (Biddle has not been recruiting particularly well of late and, if you look back you will note that even his better years of the past half decade or so have been heavily dependent on a handful of offensive players [Eachus, Scott, Sullivan, Simonds] rather than quality up and down the roster) and Bucknell (how well can Joe Susan do with an even playing field and no one in the stands). If the 'gaters can Photoshop some palm trees into scenics of Andy Kerr, and if Susan can convince Buffalo alums that a basketball game might break out at Mathewson, this could be very exciting.

[Sader87]

If, and it may be a big if, but if HC can recruit close to where they did in the 1980's they will be the "big dogs" in the PL again. I think of any PL school, HC is the sleeping giant of the PL with scholarships.

[LUHawker]

If, and it may be a big if, but if HC can recruit close to where they did in the 1980's they will be the "big dogs" in the PL again. I think of any PL school, HC is the sleeping giant of the PL with scholarships.

Why? Shouldn't HC been the giant in the PL without schollies based on your logic?

[carney2]

If, and it may be a big if, but if HC can recruit close to where they did in the 1980's they will be the "big dogs" in the PL again. I think of any PL school, HC is the sleeping giant of the PL with scholarships.

Actually, one of the few times I don't entirely disagree with you. One thing that the Crossers have going for them that isn't acknowledged all that often is that they are not in direct competition for recruits with their Patriot League compatriots all that many times. Bucknell, Colgate, Lafayette and Lehigh seem to be on the "lists" for most of the same kids. Only one can win each contest. Holy Cross, on the other hand, grazes in different pastures. They could just end up at a different level.

[RichH2]

As, Coen noted cross country recruiting is expensive but effective to bolster quality. Not competing in the NE for ltd pool of academically qualified FCS kids. Last 2 yrs LU has stayed in the NE as Lehigh's higher profile ,given recent success, allowed Andy to get quality kids locally. I would think all of us will recruit on a more national basis on varying levels as merit aid takes hold. Noone can afford to ignore a wider recruiting base.

[breezy]

On the one hand, I am happy to see HC having recruiting success in Texas, Florida, California, Indiana, Georgia, etc. I think there is something to be said about the quality of HS football in some of these states and there are recruits who may be overshadowed by more high-profile recruits on their team or in their area. At the same time, I worry about retention of these recruits due to factors such as homesickness or weather. I've seen some anecdotal evidence that other schools have had retention problems with players who go to a school that is a substantial distance from their homes.

In a scholarship environment, with smaller recruit classes, retention becomes more important.

[RichH2]

LU pretty good at retaining kids from South and Midwest. Califonia not so much , maybe 1/2 kids leave.

[DFW HOYA]

There's also an issue some PL schools may not be comfortable with: overrecruiting. Which schools will be comfortable with the "It's only a one year grant, son. Perhaps you need to consider other opportunities" speech?

[carney2]

On the one hand, I am happy to see HC having recruiting success in Texas, Florida, California, Indiana, Georgia, etc. I think there is something to be said about the quality of HS football in some of these states and there are recruits who may be overshadowed by more high-profile recruits on their team or in their area. At the same time, I worry about retention of these recruits due to factors such as homesickness or weather. I've seen some anecdotal evidence that other schools have had retention problems with players who go to a school that is a substantial distance from their homes.

In a scholarship environment, with smaller recruit classes, retention becomes more important.

Good points all. On the other hand, Patriot League schools offer the opportunity for one of those mystical "eastern educations." I have no idea what that means, but in other parts of the country schools in the "east" are perceived to have an educational advantage over the home state schools. I can't remember which it was, but one of the Holy Cross recruits from out of the northeast had nothing but in state schools - and Holy Cross - on his "list." Not speaking to retention here, but in terms of recruiting, I would think that we have a recruiting advantage with the right kid with the right set of parents.

[The Historian]

LU pretty good at retaining kids from South and Midwest. Califonia not so much , maybe 1/2 kids leave.

Florida has been a very good area for Lehigh. The state produces a huge number of quality seniors at all levels every year, many of them fast and athletic. Florida high schools can play as many as 15 games a year if they make the state finals and there is also spring practice.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Florida has been a very good area for Lehigh. The state produces a huge number of quality seniors at all levels every year, many of them fast and athletic. Florida high schools can play as many as 15 games a year if they make the state finals and there is also spring practice.

It's been a huge area for Colgate, too, which has to be the sales job of the century by Biddle. xlolx

[ngineer]

Everyone...including DIII schools recruit in Florida. It is the #1 high school recruited area in the country.