Southland - Postseason Week Four Predictions

[TexasTerror]

TT's Predictions All-Time Results
2007 Record: 46-14 (24-4 SLC)
2008 Record: 40-22 (9-18 SLC)
2009 Record: 41-22 (16-12 SLC)
2010 Record: 49-17 (19-9 SLC)
2011 Record: 50-10 (20-6 SLC)
Total: 229-86 (92-49 SLC)

Southland Conference - Postseason Week Four Game Listing
Montana at Sam Houston State

TT's Analysis and Game Predictions

Montana at Sam Houston State

Nice to reach 50 wins for the first time this season in just 60 games.

This could be a grind it out game as UM had a fair amount of success running the ball against UNI this past weekend and SHSU's success on the ground against Montana State is well-documented as well.

The caveat here in this contest is the Grizzlies are coming to Huntsville and not the other way around. We are all aware of UM's home success in December in the postseason and the Bearkats have ended their season in Missoula twice (2001 and 2004). The 2001 contest was a quarterfinal game with 2004 representing a semifinal contest.

SHSU probably could have avoided a trip to Missoula in '04 had they not posted a late loss against Northwestern State in '04. The Bearkats had defeated then No. 1 Montana earlier in the season in Huntsville and would've likely be a top two, three seed if they had won against the Demons.

Several years later, here we are. SHSU has a speed unlike anything UM has ever seen. The Grizzlies are clearly a team with a fair share of experience in this postseason.

For the Bearkats to win, they'll need to come out firing from the opening kick on the offensive side of the ball. Slow starts turned into second half success in the last two contests, but this is a game where that can not occur. SHSU must get ahead of UM and maintain its lead in order to win.

I hope that I am proven wrong, but I've said since the beginning that the Bearkat playoff run would steer off the tracks in the semifinals. While I hope that is not the case, think this young SHSU squad is a year off from reaching the championship if the nucleus can stay intact and healthy.

MONTANA

[KNUTS]

You are correct, SHSU must get ahead of UM and maintain its lead in order to win. Crazy how that happens when teams win.

[fencer24]

Good post! I am thinking that the Bearkat speed is damned impressive and will require the Griz to be very disciplined on the outside at all times to keep contain. I am not as worried about the SHSU passing game, and in fact think it could be very helpful to the Griz. I do see the Griz trying to use Moore up the middle and just wear down the Kats while keeping the ball out of their offense's hands.

Should be a good game all the way around.

[Dallas Demon]

Sam Houston 34, Montana 24

Although it wouldn't be shocking to see the score reversed.

[TexasTerror]

You are correct, SHSU must get ahead of UM and maintain its lead in order to win. Crazy how that happens when teams win.

My remark was more along the lines of the fact if SHSU gets behind, they'll be against the wall... SHSU has allowed itself to get behind very few times this season, but have not faced a foe of the caliber that is Montana. Getting behind against the Griz will force the Bearkats to alter their game plan too much, likely resulting in a loss...

Getting ahead early and maintaining the edge allows SHSU to be able to run (literally) its kind of ballgame for the length of the contest... our best shot at winning.


Good post! I am thinking that the Bearkat speed is damned impressive and will require the Griz to be very disciplined on the outside at all times to keep contain. I am not as worried about the SHSU passing game, and in fact think it could be very helpful to the Griz. I do see the Griz trying to use Moore up the middle and just wear down the Kats while keeping the ball out of their offense's hands.

SHSU has the weapons for an 'explosive' play in the passing game, namely because of the aforementioned speed. The strong running game obviously opens the pass up more, but don't doubt the Bearkats in the air. QB Brian Bell is a very efficient manager of the game in-conjunction with Richard Sincere (as our 'Bearkat' formation QB).

[Cleets]

It's worth repeating:
Both of these teams (playing each other) will be playing the best FCS team they've seen all year
So personally I think it'll come down to mistakes - like turn overs or a big play here and there on special teams

Again:
Both of these teams handled the MSU Bobcats fairly easily
So it's tough to gauge beyond that game - I just have a feeling it'll come down to mistakes

[TexasTerror]

Special teams could get impacted if the wind is what it was for the SHSU-MSU game.

SHSU is very liable to have some major penalties on defense in light of the style of defensive game the team runs. We know this and just have to hope it does not happen on 3rd-and-long and other major plays when Montana is driving.

Bell is not going to screw up most of the time when he passes the ball. Was one of the national leaders in passing efficiency. It will be key as I said before that SHSU does not trail - particularly by two scores late in the game - or else the Bearkats will break their game plan and I think it makes Bell more susceptible to errors.

[katstrapper]

Grizzlies better not fall asleep on the pass. Bell will torch your azz... This kid came from a wide open high school passing offense to this style offense at SHSU. This kid can chunk the ball.

[Uncle Rico's Clan]

Grizzlies better not fall asleep on the pass. Bell will torch your azz... This kid came from a wide open high school passing offense to this style offense at SHSU. This kid can chunk the ball.

Trumaine Johnson

[KNUTS]

My remark was more along the lines of the fact if SHSU gets behind, they'll be against the wall... SHSU has allowed itself to get behind very few times this season, but have not faced a foe of the caliber that is Montana. Getting behind against the Griz will force the Bearkats to alter their game plan too much, likely resulting in a loss...

Getting ahead early and maintaining the edge allows SHSU to be able to run (literally) its kind of ballgame for the length of the contest... our best shot at winning.



SHSU has the weapons for an 'explosive' play in the passing game, namely because of the aforementioned speed. The strong running game obviously opens the pass up more, but don't doubt the Bearkats in the air. QB Brian Bell is a very efficient manager of the game in-conjunction with Richard Sincere (as our 'Bearkat' formation QB).

I understood what you were saying, I was being my usual smartassed self.