Which scenario would surprise you the most?

[bjtheflamesfan]

With 6 automatic qualifiers up for grabs this weekend (Big South, Big Sky, Colonial, Missouri Valley, Northeast, Ohio Valley), Im going to present 6 scenarios and you vote as to which one would surprise you the most

Big Sky: Montana beating Montana State
Big South: Stony Brook beating Liberty
Colonial: Towson loses to Rhode Island AND Maine losing to New Hampshire and Towson STILL gets the autobid
Missouri Valley: North Dakota State losing to Western Illinois AND UNI beating Illinois State to earn the autobid (and possibly cost NDSU a seed)
Northeast: Albany losing to Sacred Heart and Duquesne beating Robert Morris and earning the autobid and eliminating Albany from the playoffs
Ohio Valley: Austin Peay beating Tennessee Tech, Tennessee-Martin beating Eastern Kentucky AND Tennessee State beating Jacksonville State, giving TSU the autobid (after they were an afterthought just a few weeks ago)

[penguinpower]

The CAA always gets love from the committee. Always.

[stevdock]

I think UNI's got the toughest route to it only because they have to win on the road against a good team and hope for a pretty big upset of WIU taking out NDSU.

[Fear the Bird]

The CAA always gets love from the committee. Always.

What in the world does that have to do with this thread

[TTUEagles]

TECH 'ain't' losing to Austin Peay...right? xconfusedx

[Tod]

What in the world does that have to do with this thread

That's a good and fair question. I think Mr. C simply misunderstood. It happens.

[bjtheflamesfan]

TECH 'ain't' losing to Austin Peay...right? xconfusedx Im not saying they are TTU, Im just presenting the scenario that would surprise people for each of the 6 remaining automatic bids, if I had to vote Id go with the OVC because you have a team that didnt even have a chance just a few weeks ago in TSU, and now if things fall just right, they could win the automatic bid.

[UNIFanSince1983]

The biggest surprise would be UNI getting the autobid only because it would require NDSU to lay the egg of the century in Macomb.

[Grizalltheway]

Anyone who voted for Montana is a damned fool.

[penguinpower]

What in the world does that have to do with this thread

It means that no matter what happens the CAA will have the most teams get in with the highest seeds. I say they get 5 again, even though the league is reloading adn is having a down year. BTW Delaware has the same record as Youngstown State and is ranked 16th? The penguins aren't even in the TSN Top 25, has won 4 of its last 5 games and has beaten 2 ranked teams including #1 NDSU. Still not ranked. Total BS. All I'm saying is that no matter what happens, the CAA gets 5. Youngstown is not even in the conversation. If I were a coach, I would not want to play them. Just saying.

[Fear the Bird]

It means that no matter what happens the CAA will have the most teams get in with the highest seeds. I say they get 5 again, even though the league is reloading adn is having a down year. BTW Delaware has the same record as Youngstown State and is ranked 16th? The penguins aren't even in the TSN Top 25, has won 4 of its last 5 games and has beaten 2 ranked teams including #1 NDSU. Still not ranked. Total BS. All I'm saying is that no matter what happens, the CAA gets 5. Youngstown is not even in the conversation. If I were a coach, I would not want to play them. Just saying.

But again wrong thread for your misplaced whining...until the CAA proves they dont deserve playoff spots why wouldnt they get them?

That being said I have 4 CAA and 4 MVFC

But to the point of this thread...even though the OVC would be crazy to have all of those outcomes happen, i think NDSU losing to WIU would have the most shock value

[MSUBobcat]

Anyone who voted for Montana is a damned fool.

Unfortunately I agree with you. Obviously MSU is the favorite, but it shouldn't be by many points. It certainly wouldn't be a huge surprise, especially since it was one of the 2 games in which the teams control their own destiny, whereas the others have to win and hope other teams lose.

[ngineer]

The biggest surprise would be UNI getting the autobid only because it would require NDSU to lay the egg of the century in Macomb.

Another 'close egg' would be Towson losing to URI, while Maine beats UNH.

[Catbooster]

I want to vote for Montana, but it isn't close to the biggest upset listed, and it doesn't rely on multiple games lining up right.

[bisonnation]

It means that no matter what happens the CAA will have the most teams get in with the highest seeds. I say they get 5 again, even though the league is reloading adn is having a down year. BTW Delaware has the same record as Youngstown State and is ranked 16th? The penguins aren't even in the TSN Top 25, has won 4 of its last 5 games and has beaten 2 ranked teams including #1 NDSU. Still not ranked. Total BS. All I'm saying is that no matter what happens, the CAA gets 5. Youngstown is not even in the conversation. If I were a coach, I would not want to play them. Just saying.

I think the Missouri Valley is finally getting the recognition it deserves. Last year 3 teams made it. According to the GPI, 5 teams may make it. I thought it was a great conference before NDSU and SDSU were accepted. Now add a solid ranked program like the USD and it gets even tougher.

Personally I think Youngstown would be a dangerous playoff team.

Depending on what happens Saturday, the MVFC could realistically get 5

[FCS Go!]

Wanted to vote for Liberty but...

[FCSbuff319]

Wanted to vote for Liberty but...

+1 I would think the Big South team that needed 2 overtimes to beat Presbyterian at home would be the one that would be a surprise to win the conference this weekend.

[MTfan4life]

Stony Brook +155 in Big South games. Liberty +103. With the exception of the overrating in the polls, Liberty doesn't have much proof to show they're the favorites in the Big South. Sure they were better last year, but this is 2011. The more impressive Big South team this season has been SB.

[bjtheflamesfan]

I think the Missouri Valley is finally getting the recognition it deserves. Last year 3 teams made it. According to the GPI, 5 teams may make it. I thought it was a great conference before NDSU and SDSU were accepted. Now add a solid ranked program like the USD and it gets even tougher.

Personally I think Youngstown would be a dangerous playoff team.

Depending on what happens Saturday, the MVFC could realistically get 5

yo[both missed the crux of the question (which has zero to do with Youngstown State): of the six scenarios presented (none of which comes anywhere close to mentioning the Penguins) which would surprise you the most. If this was about who would be a more dangerous playoff team I would have asked that.

As to MTfan's comment, comparing teams based on margin of victory or just on numbers in general is dicey at best (as noted by the Liberty beat writer in his preview article about the game on Monday and Id take him as more credible). The only way you can even begin to make a proper comparison is if both teams played the opponent under identical circumstances and both games played out exactly the same way. Since that didnt happen you cannot make a fair assessment as to who is the "better team". To give an example cited by our beat writer in the same article I referenced above, Stony Brook last year beat Coastal handily, and Liberty lost to coastal, which based on your logic should have meant that SBU was the better team last year and would have beaten Liberty right? Well, Liberty whomped Stony Brook 54-28.

This year Stony Brook beat Coastal 42-0, beat Gardner-Webb 76-28, beat Charleston Southern 50-31, beat VMI 42-14 and beat Presbyterian 42-24 while Liberty beat Coastal Carolina 63-27, beat Gardner-Webb 38-3, beat Charleston Southern 38-16, beat Presbyterian 27-20 and beat VMI 37-31. Again, that doesnt tell me who the better team is coming into Saturday and certainly doesnt tell me who is going to win the game on Saturday because all 10 games a) were not played under identical circumstances and b) did not play out in identical ways.To simply assume what your assuming based purely on box scores (which is really all you have to compare the two teams) is not accurate or fair.

[MTfan4life]

Just a little odd to include Stony Brook in this group where it would be a major surprise for some of these teams to come out as champions. Both SB and Lib have the same record. Tennessee State needs three teams to lose for them to be considered, and it still might come down to a coin flip. Northern Iowa needs NDSU to lose to the worst team in the MVFC, and they also need to beat a 7-3 team on the road. Duquesne needs Albany to lose to a lesser team in their conference. Montana needs to beat the #1 ranked team. Maine needs to both win and hope that Towson loses. Stony Brook simply needs to beat an equal team to them. Why are they included in this poll? Is it just arrogance? That is why I brought out the comparisons. Not to prove that SB is better, but to throw out that Liberty isn't so high and mighty as you and many pollsters bring them out to be, at least in comparison to their own conference.


To simply assume what your assuming based purely on box scores (which is really all you have to compare the two teams) is not accurate or fair.

Where is your simple assumption coming from that Liberty losing would be a surprise to anyone who actually has paid attention to the results this season???

[bjtheflamesfan]

Just a little odd to include Stony Brook in this group where it would be a major surprise for some of these teams to come out as champions. Both SB and Lib have the same record. Tennessee State needs three teams to lose for them to be considered, and it still might come down to a coin flip. Northern Iowa needs NDSU to lose to the worst team in the MVFC, and they also need to beat a 7-3 team on the road. Duquesne needs Albany to lose to a lesser team in their conference. Montana needs to beat the #1 ranked team. Maine needs to both win and hope that Towson loses. Stony Brook simply needs to beat an equal team to them. Why are they included in this poll? Is it just arrogance? That is why I brought out the comparisons. Not to prove that SB is better, but to throw out that Liberty isn't so high and mighty as you and many pollsters bring them out to be, at least in comparison to their own conference.



Where is your simple assumption coming from that Liberty losing would be a surprise to anyone who actually has paid attention to the results this season???

Based on the fact that there are more to games than what box scores show...and the fact that major playoff projections (as in ones not made by fans/posters on this board) have shown Liberty a being the one to get the autobid. Since I found them more credible than the AGS poster projections (as they have actually watched Liberty games instead of simply reading the stat sheets as it seems you did), it stood to reason that Stony Brook getting the autobid would come off as more of a surprise than the other way around. Also. I was trying to make sure I included every autobid that had not already been secured in the discussion

[MTfan4life]

Major playoff projections? like what? TSN? They had Murray State in their projection half of the season. That sure is incredibly credible, you're right. Also, what good would watching Liberty games do? How do you know I didnt? Maybe I saw Liberty nearly lose to very weak teams at home their past two games? So, TSN's bracket is more credible than the people on here. Do you also agree with Massey/Sagarin/etc ratings? I believe that Stony Brook is ahead of Liberty in over 75 percent of the computer ratings. Massey has a comparative site. Any of those people who somewhat view those ratings as decent would be more surprised to see Liberty win. I guess only the people who have seen Liberty play know how good they are. That is if they saw them play before the Presbyterian and VMI games.

I would like to see some of these "major" playoff projections by the way. The GPI has Stony Brook as the qualifier right now. Is that a minor rating? They claim as a top indicator for the playoffs, but they must be just talking out of their... because they don't have Liberty higher. They should have watched them on tv. You're clearly not a smart pollster until you've watched Liberty on the tube. Especially considering all the games did not play out in the same way and weren't played under the same circumstances. I guess I'm just a box score troll though and the GPI is a joke that no one utilizes.

[Gil Dobie]

None of the above

[appfan2008]

dumb poll question but i voted anyway... UNI would be...

[Thundar]

Just remember 1 thing: 2010 NDSU 0 Missouri St. 3, doormat of the league last game of the year. UNI still has a very legit shot at the Auto.................just saying im not crowning us yet

[bjtheflamesfan]

Ok so GPI is projecting Stony Brook, thats great. You got way too hung up on one of the options in the poll though MTfan. If you didnt think that Stony Brook winning the autobid would be the biggest surprise of the six that are remaining considering the scenario needed for that to happen, you dont have to cast a vote for them (and the vast majority of people that have voted get that). Heck, I voted for Tennessee State because their scenario has the most moving pieces involved (TSU beating Jacksonville State, Eastern Kentucky losing to Tennessee Martin and Tennesse Tech losing to Austin Peay thus creating a five way tie for the title in that conference, possibly six if Murray State also wins on Saturday). If I wanted to I could have listed every possible remaining scenario I would have done that (but run out of poll options more than likely) but I basically took the projections I had to work with (TSN and CSJ) and looked at what scenarios would have to happen and posted the six scenarios that I though would best suit the poll and allow for a large enough statistical sample.

[Ivytalk]

I voted for the UNI scenario.

[Grizalltheway]

I want to vote for Montana, but it isn't close to the biggest upset listed, and it doesn't rely on multiple games lining up right.

My thoughts exactly. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we won and got the AQ, nor would I be surprised if we lost. Only a blowout either way would leave me scratching my head.

[MSUBobcat]

My thoughts exactly. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we won and got the AQ, nor would I be surprised if we lost. Only a blowout either way would leave me scratching my head.

I second this. Not only would I be surprised by a blowout, I would also be fairly surprised if either team scored more than 31 pts, especially with snow in the forecast. Obviously I know the gametime forecast can't be taken seriously until, oh, Saturday morning at around 11 am, but that's what it shows for now.

[Silenoz]

Anyone who voted for Montana is a damned fool.

I almost did because I'm dyslexic

Went with the MFVC because I can't see how NDSU could possibly mess that game up

[Grizalltheway]

I second this. Not only would I be surprised by a blowout, I would also be fairly surprised if either team scored more than 31 pts, especially with snow in the forecast. Obviously I know the gametime forecast can't be taken seriously until, oh, Saturday morning at around 11 am, but that's what it shows for now.

Looks like a high of 20, hopefully it won't be as windy as it was in Missoula last year. That was just miserable.

Either way, I will be warm and sauced indoors. xnodx

[MSUBobcat]

Looks like a high of 20, hopefully it won't be as windy as it was in Missoula last year. That was just miserable.

Either way, I will be warm and sauced indoors. xnodx

According to the dart the weathermonkeys threw at the board, only a 4 mph wind.

I see there are now 7 uninformed voters who are picking the #7/8 team in the country w/ control of their own destiny as the most surprising AQ scenario. xeekxxrotatehxxsmhx

[bjtheflamesfan]

If I had to rate the teams in the poll based on inconceivability of their scenario actually happening Id rate it like this:

1. Tennessee State
2. Northern Iowa
3. Duquesne
4. Maine
5. Montana and Stony Brook

Tennessee State has to have what can only be described as a "perfect storm", Northern Iowa needs NDSU to lay a complete egg in their last game, Duquesne needs to hope that Albany overlooks Sacred Heart, Maine probably has the least chance of getting their autobid unless Towson pretty much disbands their football team before this weekend. Montana and Stony Brook are both solid programs and so them winning isnt something out of the realm of possibility

[RabidRabbit]

I think UNI's got the toughest route to it only because they have to win on the road against a good team and hope for a VERY big upset of WIU taking out NDSU.

FIFY