Playoff Overview - 1 week remaining

[Go Apps]

Here are a few clarifications for the playoff field of 20: The Ivy League does not participate in the playoffs- The SWAC will send its division champions to the SWAC title game. Assume a team must also reach 7 D1 wins to be eligible.for an at large. ALSO there are teams with still a chance of winning their Autobid but I have not listed due to upcoming schedule, will add as necessary.

FCS teams that can still entertain realistic playoff hopes. Schools are ranked by their chances of making the playoffs.. Current overall and conference records are in parentheses, and each team’s remaining schedule is listed with a brief synopsis of its chances. The adds of AQ means they got the Autobid or IN means I believe they have already made the field,regardless of how they finish. The rank below is based on being in the playoffs not where I believe they will be seated.

1. Montana State (9-1, 6-1 Big Sky)
The Games: Montana

Outlook: IN Only Montana is a road block to a top seed for the Bobcats – a loss will drop them from seed contention

2. North Dakota State (9-1, 6-1 MVC)
The Games: at W. Illinois

Outlook: IN The Bison are in, but the loss may have cost them the top seed – a win should guarantee them a seed – a loss will derail their seed chances.

3. Ga Southern (9-1, 7-1 Southern)
The Games: at Alabama

Outlook: AQ GSU wins the Socon and grabs a top 4 seed – how high depends on other games around the country.

4. Sam Houston State (10-0, 7-0 Southland)
The Games: at Texas State

Outlook: AQ Perhaps the Number 1 seed with a win next week – a loss will put them on the fence for a seed as their GPI will drop drastically

5. Montana (8-2, 6-1 Big Sky)
The Games: at Montana State

Outlook:IN The Grizzles are now looking at the showdown with Montana State a win gives them the AB and a probable seed

6. Northern Iowa (7-2, 6-1 MVC)
The Games: at Ill State

Outlook: IN No longer in control of the autobid and now a tough schedule remains, needs a win this week to stay in the discussion for a seed

7. Appalachian State (7-3, 5-2 Southern)
The Games: at Elon

Outlook: IN Lost the conference title but in the postseason hoping to snag a seed – still possible with losses by Towson, UNI, Montana, GSU, Sam Houston, Maine and Lehigh

8. Old Dominion (9-2, 6-2 CAA)
The Games: SEASON COMPLETE

Outlook: IN ODU grabs their first postseason spot! However their schedule does not bode well unlikely to get a seed…

9. Lehigh (9-1, 4-0 Patriot)
The Games: Lafayette

Outlook: AQ Should win this week but a seed maybe unlikely but still in the discussion for now

10. Norfolk State (9-2. 7-1 MEAC)
Regular Season Complete

Outlook: AQ Cleared up the MEAC and gets the AQ and will be playing week one most likely

11. Towson (8-2, 6-1 CAA)
The Games: at R. Island

Outlook: IN Perhaps the winners of the CAA – need to win to stay in the seed discussion

12. Wofford (7-3, 5-2 Southern)
The Games: at UTC

Outlook: IN Terriers had everything within their reach now looking just to play in postseason but I think they are still in but a win will ensure a bid

13. Maine (8-2, 6-1 CAA)
The Games: at N. Hampshire

Outlook: IN They are in the postseason but needs a win next week to keep moving up the rankings and have a shot at a seed

14. Liberty (7-3, 5-0 Big South)
The Games: at Stony Brook

Outlook: In the drivers seat for the AB, a loss to SB will eliminated them from playoffs

15. Albany (7-3, 6-1 NEC)
The Games: Sacred Heart

Outlook: Needs a win to be in or could be watching the playoffs over the holidays.

16. New Hampshire (7-3, 5-2 CAA)
The Games: Maine

Outlook: The loss hurt but they are still very much alive – needs to win this week to possibly avoid a first round game

17. Illinois State (7-3, 5-2 MVC)
The Games: N. Iowa

Outlook: MUST WIN and they are in – four losses could still have then in as they are from a strong conference.

18. Tennessee Tech (6-3, 5-2 OVC)
The Games: Austin Peay

Outlook: Huge win this weekend puts them back in the hunt and in total control win and grab the AB a loss keeps them out of the playoffs – if they win they will be playing over Turkey day

19. Central Arkansas (8-3, 6-1 Southland)
The Games: Regular Season Complete

Outlook: Needs a few teams to lose to secure a bid – this one is still in doubt – if they are in they will be playing in round one

20. Indiana State (6-4, 4-3 MVC)
The Games: S. Illinois

Outlook: Very much in the hunt and a strong schedule with 4 losses they will be hard to leave out – the win over Young State has them with a leg up on the Penguins – again if they make it they will play opening round

21. Youngstown State (6-4, 4-3 MVC)
The Games: MO State

Outlook: Still alive but must win their last game - but I don’t see them making it – needs a ton of help around the conference and nation to be in the hunt but a win over NDSU is a strong statement

22. Stony Brook (7-3, 5-0 Big South)
The Games: Liberty

Outlook: Win out and they are in – all they have to do now is just beat Liberty – there will be no at large for this conference so winner take all

23. James Madison (6-4, 4-3 CAA)
The Games: at UMASS

Outlook: NOT done yet needs a win to stay in the hunt but 5 from the CAA is unlikely and they appear to be the odd man out

24. Eastern Kentucky (6-4, 5-2 OVC)
The Games: UT Martin

Outlook: What to think EKU may have lost total control this weekend, must win and hope that Tenn Tech falls otherwise they are eliminated

26. Jacksonille State (6-4, 5-2 OVC)
The Games: at Tenn State

Outlook: They must win and have EKU and Tenn Tech both lose to grab the AB otherwise they are eliminated

27. Dusquene (8-2, 6-1 NEC)
The Games: Robert Morris

Outlook: Needs to win out and have Albany lose and they would grab the AB.

28. Portland State, Delaware, Furman, UTC
Looking for a miracle


Below are my current projections for the I-AA playoff field.

Automatic Bids:
Patriot: Lehigh CAA: Towson
Big Sky: Montana State Southland: Sam Houston State
Southern: GSU MVC: NDSU
MEAC: Norfolk State OVC: Tenn Tech
Big South: Liberty NEC: Albany

At-large:
Wofford, ASU, Indiana State, N. Hamp, Montana, Maine, Ill St, C. Ark, ODU, N. Iowa

Seeds: GSU, Montana State, UNI, Sam Houston State, NDSU
Last In: N. Hampshire, C Arkansas, Indiana State
Last Out: UTC, JMU, Portland State


Bracket I:
Albany @ Maine winner at No. 1 Montana State
N. Hampshire @ Montana

Illinois State @ C. Arkansas winner at No. 4 Sam Houston State
Wofford @ No. 5 N Iowa

Bracket II:
Norfolk State @ Liberty winner at No. 3 GSU
Towson @ ASU

Indiana State @ Tenn Tech winner at No. 2 NDSU
Lehigh @ ODU

[WrenFGun]

FWIW, Wofford is OUT with a loss to UTC next Saturday (won't have 7 DI wins).

I think if UNH loses to Maine on Saturday, they are in the first round unless Wofford loses to UTC. I think if UNH beats Maine on Saturday, ODU is probably playing in the first round from the CAA, unless something surprising happens.

[eaglewraith]

I don't think us and App get put on the same side. We both have a big revenue potential so they'd want both of us to have home games as much as possible. However, I would love a quarterfinals rematch in Paulson :)

[Go Apps]

You are correct most likely on Wofford - but I think they win - your take on the CAA may be dead on - just need to play those games

[Go Apps]

I don't think us and App get put on the same side. We both have a big revenue potential so they'd want both of us to have home games as much as possible. However, I would love a quarterfinals rematch in Paulson :)

I still believe ASU has a chance to grab the 4th seed - need the following to occur -

N Hamp beats Maine - very likely
Towson loses
Sam houston loses
UNI loses - very possible
Lehigh losese - not likely but their GPI is not good
Montana st wins

if the above happens

Then Mont St is 1
NDSU is 2
GSU is 3
ASU is 4
Sam houston is 5 (or Towson here)

you are right on the that they want the money - the only way that happens is to give ASU a seed otherwise a road game will negate any possibility of really getting the $$ and personally I do not want to see GSU again this year - unless we are in the title game - and I think GSU will be there..

[Go Apps]

My thoughts on the seating will change once the GPI comes out - I think the SoCon lost ground this week and the MVC may top us but seeing where teams are will be a major factor for the committee - that and the polls

[heath]

Is ESPNU going to do the selection show Sunday,if so what time?,can't find right now

[Go Apps]

Is ESPNU going to do the selection show Sunday,if so what time?,can't find right now

Usually comes on ESPN news - in the afternoon

[Phatty]

You give Towson one of the seeds, but in the projected bracket you have Northern Iowa with the seed instead of Towson.

[danefan]

Towson and Lehigh are almost a virtual lock to play each other - 120 miles or so awaw. If Towson is not a seed, then its likely to happen at Lehigh.

[GATA_Eagles]

I pretty much agree with everything but think Stony Brook gets the autobid from Big South

[heath]

Is ESPNU going to do the selection show Sunday,if so what time?,can't find right now

Just found ESPN program listings for 11/20 and selection show is on ESPNU at 10am

[LakesBison]

Good analysis, I see NDSU @ #2 seed

[appfan2008]

ASU is in either way but I really hope to take care of business this weekend so we dont have to play 2 days after thanksgiving

[Go Apps]

You give Towson one of the seeds, but in the projected bracket you have Northern Iowa with the seed instead of Towson.

yes fixed it

[B&G]

Here's my projection based off what I think will happen this weekend...

BRACKET 1
----------------------------
Tennessee Tech/Illinois St @ 1 Sam Houston State
Maine @ Northern Iowa
-------------------------------------------------
Stony Brook/Youngstown St @ 4 Montana
Lehigh @ 5 Towson

BRACKET 2
------------------------------
Albany/New Hampshire @ 2 North Dakota St
Wofford @ Montana St (shades of 2007 where Wofford was sent to Montana)
-------------------------------------------------
Norfolk St/Central Arkansas @ 3 Georgia Southern (the lack of teams from the south make this bracket necessary)
Old Dominion @ Appalachian St (shades of 2007 when JMU played at App)

[SeattleGriz]

Here's my projection based off what I think will happen this weekend...

BRACKET 1
----------------------------
Tennessee Tech/Illinois St @ 1 Sam Houston State
Maine @ Northern Iowa
-------------------------------------------------
Stony Brook/Youngstown St @ 4 Montana
Lehigh @ 5 Towson

BRACKET 2
------------------------------
Albany/New Hampshire @ 2 North Dakota St
Wofford @ Montana St (shades of 2007 where Wofford was sent to Montana)
-------------------------------------------------
Norfolk St/Central Arkansas @ 3 Georgia Southern (the lack of teams from the south make this bracket necessary)
Old Dominion @ Appalachian St (shades of 2007 when JMU played at App)

I would take that bracket!!

[STACCATS]

Here are a few clarifications for the playoff field of 20: The Ivy League does not participate in the playoffs- The SWAC will send its division champions to the SWAC title game. Assume a team must also reach 7 D1 wins to be eligible.for an at large. ALSO there are teams with still a chance of winning their Autobid but I have not listed due to upcoming schedule, will add as necessary.

FCS teams that can still entertain realistic playoff hopes. Schools are ranked by their chances of making the playoffs.. Current overall and conference records are in parentheses, and each team’s remaining schedule is listed with a brief synopsis of its chances. The adds of AQ means they got the Autobid or IN means I believe they have already made the field,regardless of how they finish. The rank below is based on being in the playoffs not where I believe they will be seated.

1. Montana State (9-1, 6-1 Big Sky)
The Games: Montana

Outlook: IN Only Montana is a road block to a top seed for the Bobcats – a loss will drop them from seed contention

2. North Dakota State (9-1, 6-1 MVC)
The Games: at W. Illinois

Outlook: IN The Bison are in, but the loss may have cost them the top seed – a win should guarantee them a seed – a loss will derail their seed chances.

3. Ga Southern (9-1, 7-1 Southern)
The Games: at Alabama

Outlook: AQ GSU wins the Socon and grabs a top 4 seed – how high depends on other games around the country.

4. Sam Houston State (10-0, 7-0 Southland)
The Games: at Texas State

Outlook: AQ Perhaps the Number 1 seed with a win next week – a loss will put them on the fence for a seed as their GPI will drop drastically

5. Montana (8-2, 6-1 Big Sky)
The Games: at Montana State

Outlook:IN The Grizzles are now looking at the showdown with Montana State a win gives them the AB and a probable seed

6. Northern Iowa (7-2, 6-1 MVC)
The Games: at Ill State

Outlook: IN No longer in control of the autobid and now a tough schedule remains, needs a win this week to stay in the discussion for a seed

7. Appalachian State (7-3, 5-2 Southern)
The Games: at Elon

Outlook: IN Lost the conference title but in the postseason hoping to snag a seed – still possible with losses by Towson, UNI, Montana, GSU, Sam Houston, Maine and Lehigh

8. Old Dominion (9-2, 6-2 CAA)
The Games: SEASON COMPLETE

Outlook: IN ODU grabs their first postseason spot! However their schedule does not bode well unlikely to get a seed…

9. Lehigh (9-1, 4-0 Patriot)
The Games: Lafayette

Outlook: AQ Should win this week but a seed maybe unlikely but still in the discussion for now

10. Norfolk State (9-2. 7-1 MEAC)
Regular Season Complete

Outlook: AQ Cleared up the MEAC and gets the AQ and will be playing week one most likely

11. Towson (8-2, 6-1 CAA)
The Games: at R. Island

Outlook: IN Perhaps the winners of the CAA – need to win to stay in the seed discussion

12. Wofford (7-3, 5-2 Southern)
The Games: at UTC

Outlook: IN Terriers had everything within their reach now looking just to play in postseason but I think they are still in but a win will ensure a bid

13. Maine (8-2, 6-1 CAA)
The Games: at N. Hampshire

Outlook: IN They are in the postseason but needs a win next week to keep moving up the rankings and have a shot at a seed

14. Liberty (7-3, 5-0 Big South)
The Games: at Stony Brook

Outlook: In the drivers seat for the AB, a loss to SB will eliminated them from playoffs

15. Albany (7-3, 6-1 NEC)
The Games: Sacred Heart

Outlook: Needs a win to be in or could be watching the playoffs over the holidays.

16. New Hampshire (7-3, 5-2 CAA)
The Games: Maine

Outlook: The loss hurt but they are still very much alive – needs to win this week to possibly avoid a first round game

17. Illinois State (7-3, 5-2 MVC)
The Games: N. Iowa

Outlook: MUST WIN and they are in – four losses could still have then in as they are from a strong conference.

18. Tennessee Tech (6-3, 5-2 OVC)
The Games: Austin Peay

Outlook: Huge win this weekend puts them back in the hunt and in total control win and grab the AB a loss keeps them out of the playoffs – if they win they will be playing over Turkey day

19. Central Arkansas (8-3, 6-1 Southland)
The Games: Regular Season Complete

Outlook: Needs a few teams to lose to secure a bid – this one is still in doubt – if they are in they will be playing in round one

20. Indiana State (6-4, 4-3 MVC)
The Games: S. Illinois

Outlook: Very much in the hunt and a strong schedule with 4 losses they will be hard to leave out – the win over Young State has them with a leg up on the Penguins – again if they make it they will play opening round

21. Youngstown State (6-4, 4-3 MVC)
The Games: MO State

Outlook: Still alive but must win their last game - but I don’t see them making it – needs a ton of help around the conference and nation to be in the hunt but a win over NDSU is a strong statement

22. Stony Brook (7-3, 5-0 Big South)
The Games: Liberty

Outlook: Win out and they are in – all they have to do now is just beat Liberty – there will be no at large for this conference so winner take all

23. James Madison (6-4, 4-3 CAA)
The Games: at UMASS

Outlook: NOT done yet needs a win to stay in the hunt but 5 from the CAA is unlikely and they appear to be the odd man out

24. Eastern Kentucky (6-4, 5-2 OVC)
The Games: UT Martin

Outlook: What to think EKU may have lost total control this weekend, must win and hope that Tenn Tech falls otherwise they are eliminated

26. Jacksonille State (6-4, 5-2 OVC)
The Games: at Tenn State

Outlook: They must win and have EKU and Tenn Tech both lose to grab the AB otherwise they are eliminated

27. Dusquene (8-2, 6-1 NEC)
The Games: Robert Morris

Outlook: Needs to win out and have Albany lose and they would grab the AB.

28. Portland State, Delaware, Furman, UTC
Looking for a miracle


Below are my current projections for the I-AA playoff field.

Automatic Bids:
Patriot: Lehigh CAA: Towson
Big Sky: Montana State Southland: Sam Houston State
Southern: GSU MVC: NDSU
MEAC: Norfolk State OVC: Tenn Tech
Big South: Liberty NEC: Albany

At-large:
Wofford, ASU, Indiana State, N. Hamp, Montana, Maine, Ill St, C. Ark, ODU, N. Iowa

Seeds: GSU, Montana State, UNI, Sam Houston State, NDSU
Last In: N. Hampshire, C Arkansas, Indiana State
Last Out: UTC, JMU, Portland State


Bracket I:
Albany @ Maine winner at No. 1 Montana State
N. Hampshire @ Montana

Illinois State @ C. Arkansas winner at No. 4 Sam Houston State
Wofford @ No. 5 N Iowa

Bracket II:
Norfolk State @ Liberty winner at No. 3 GSU
Towson @ ASU

Indiana State @ Tenn Tech winner at No. 2 NDSU
Lehigh @ ODU

Pretty good analysis.......However, your seed discussion is a little supspect IMO. At the very begining, you mention Montana State is out of the seed discussion with a loss to Montana, yet go on later to discuss all the teams that are still in discussion for seeds that would be 9-2, 7-1 with a win on Sauturday (which is what MSU woudl be with a loss on Saturday). And you even mention a potential 8-3, 6-2 ASU team would be in a seed discussion?xrotatehx

Assuming UNI, Towson, Maine and Montana win (along with NDSU and Sam Houston).......and Montana State and Georgia Southern lose on Saturday

I think the seeds would look like this:
Sam Houston and NDSU would be fighting it out for 1 and 2 seeds
and the following teams woudl be in the discussion for seeds 3-5:
GSU
Towson
Montana
Montana State
Northern Iowa
Maine
Lehigh

I think GSU woudl get the 3 and Montana would get the 4. But the 5 seed would be a toss up between previous #1 MSU, UNI and Towson.

MSU is definitely in the discussion.

[Go Apps]

Pretty good analysis.......However, your seed discussion is a little supspect IMO. At the very begining, you mention Montana State is out of the seed discussion with a loss to Montana, yet go on later to discuss all the teams that are still in discussion for seeds that would be 9-2, 7-1 with a win on Sauturday (which is what MSU woudl be with a loss on Saturday). And you even mention a potential 8-3, 6-2 ASU team would be in a seed discussion?xrotatehx

Assuming UNI, Towson, Maine and Montana win (along with NDSU and Sam Houston).......and Montana State and Georgia Southern lose on Saturday

I think the seeds would look like this:
Sam Houston and NDSU would be fighting it out for 1 and 2 seeds
and the following teams woudl be in the discussion for seeds 3-5:
GSU
Towson
Montana
Montana State
Northern Iowa
Maine
Lehigh

I think GSU woudl get the 3 and Montana would get the 4. But the 5 seed would be a toss up between previous #1 MSU, UNI and Towson.

MSU is definitely in the discussion.

In your scenario it would go to UNI without a doubt - I don't think the Big Sky gets two seeds - not this year and the CAA is hurting on the GPI which is used in seeding discussions...

ASU is in the hunt due to money - they really step up if Towson, Maine, Montana, and UNI lose - I think they also need Sam Houst to also lose - if all that happens and is possible then I think ASU grabs the #4 slot why $$$$$$$$$$ ASU leads the country in attendance and they want two games there and two games in Statesboro...I doubt the scenario will happen but possible

[Mr. C]

In your scenario it would go to UNI without a doubt - I don't think the Big Sky gets two seeds - not this year and the CAA is hurting on the GPI which is used in seeding discussions...

ASU is in the hunt due to money - they really step up if Towson, Maine, Montana, and UNI lose - I think they also need Sam Houst to also lose - if all that happens and is possible then I think ASU grabs the #4 slot why $$$$$$$$$$ ASU leads the country in attendance and they want two games there and two games in Statesboro...I doubt the scenario will happen but possible

There is no evidence the GPI is used in seeding discussions. It is a device used when there is a team involved in bridge AQ discussions and none of the PFL teams are eligible for a bridge AQ.

Also, ASU's attendance won't have anything to do with it getting a seed. I see very little chance of the Mountaineers getting a seed. The only thing on the resume that is a plus there is a win over then-No. 1 Georgia Southern.

[tribefan40]

Automatic Bids:
CAA: Towson

Bracket I:
Albany @ Maine winner at No. 1 Montana State
N. Hampshire @ Montana

Illinois State @ C. Arkansas winner at No. 4 Sam Houston State
Wofford @ No. 5 N Iowa

Bracket II:
Norfolk State @ Liberty winner at No. 3 GSU
Towson @ ASU

Indiana State @ Tenn Tech winner at No. 2 NDSU
Lehigh @ ODU

So you have Towson winning the CAA, ending up 9-2 and not only being left out of a seed but traveling to App in their first game? Seriously?

[Go Apps]

So you have Towson winning the CAA, ending up 9-2 and not only being left out of a seed but traveling to App in their first game? Seriously?

Look it is all a guess at the moment I actually think Towson may lose and so will Maine - so I am not sure on the tiebreakers but that was my best guess - who does own the tiebreakers in the CAA?

[JmuSkinsfan]

Look it is all a guess at the moment I actually think Towson may lose and so will Maine - so I am not sure on the tiebreakers but that was my best guess - who does own the tiebreakers in the CAA?

Well, if Towson loses to Rhode Island (doubtful), and Maine loses to New Hampshire (possible), all three would be tied with ODU at 6-2.

Towson beat ODU
Towson beat New Hampshire
Towson beat Maine

I would assume Towson would own the tie-breakers.

[heath]

Here's my projection based off what I think will happen this weekend...

BRACKET 1
----------------------------
Tennessee Tech/Illinois St @ 1 Sam Houston State
Maine @ Northern Iowa
-------------------------------------------------
Stony Brook/Youngstown St @ 4 Montana
Lehigh @ 5 Towson

BRACKET 2
------------------------------
Albany/New Hampshire @ 2 North Dakota St
Wofford @ Montana St (shades of 2007 where Wofford was sent to Montana)
-------------------------------------------------
Norfolk St/Central Arkansas @ 3 Georgia Southern (the lack of teams from the south make this bracket necessary)
Old Dominion @ Appalachian St (shades of 2007 when JMU played at App)

Bracket 2 is a monster,just take a look at the teams.Switch #1 and #3 seed and move their side of bracket with them.It would also become more regional until semis.

[UIWWildthing]

Well, if Towson loses to Rhode Island (doubtful), and Maine loses to New Hampshire (possible), all three would be tied with ODU at 6-2.

Towson beat ODU
Towson beat New Hampshire
Towson beat Maine

I would assume Towson would own the tie-breakers.

Correct. The only way at this point that Towson loses the CAA is if they lose and Maine wins. Any other scenario has the Tigers winning the CAA

[eagle07]

I dont think they put gsu and asu in a postion to play in technically second round, plus just go ahead and throw wofford out of the bracket all together

[JmuSkinsfan]

Which, again, brings up the point, why the hell isn't Towson top 5? I guess 6th at this point isn't bad ... but having beat 3 other near top-10 teams and winning the CAA (assuming they win Saturday) ... they'll be 9-1 in FCS play. Unreal Towson ... what a season.

[Fear the Bird]

Seriously - people need to get on board with this Towson team - they have as good a resume as any with 3 wins over playoff teams

Hell if they had beat Delaware they would have a legit case for #1 in the country right now

[Silenoz]

Seriously - people need to get on board with this Towson team - they have as good a resume as any with 3 wins over playoff teams

Hell if they had beat Delaware they would have a legit case for #1 in the country right now
This. A lot of top ten teams are pretty sparse when it comes to quality wins...

[JmuSkinsfan]

Seriously - people need to get on board with this Towson team - they have as good a resume as any with 3 wins over playoff teams

Hell if they had beat Delaware they would have a legit case for #1 in the country right now

Agreed. And same with Maine ... if they beat UNH this weekend their only FCS loss would be to Towson. I think Towson/Maine have as good a resume (both finishing 9-2) as NDSU/UNI or Georgia Southern/App State ... for people to say the CAA is down this year, they're blindly assuming it is down because traditional bottom-feeders are suddenly great.

Scenario #1
Delaware: 9-2
JMU: 9-2
Richmond: 8-3
UNH: 8-3
W&M: 7-4
Villanova: 7-4 (6 DI wins)

If I told you that those were the final standings for the top 6 CAA teams would you say it was a down year? How about this:

Scenario #2:
Towson: 9-2
Maine: 9-2
ODU: 9-2
UNH: 7-4
JMU: 7-4
Delaware: 7-4 (6 DI wins)

So this is somehow considered a down year? This sucks for JMU, because 10/10 times in Scenario #1, William and Mary would be in at 7-4 because of the strength of the conference. Suddenly a 7-4 JMU team in Scenario #2 is questionable, with many having them out.

[jmufan999]

So this is somehow considered a down year? This sucks for JMU, because 10/10 times in Scenario #1, William and Mary would be in at 7-4 because of the strength of the conference. Suddenly a 7-4 JMU team in Scenario #2 is questionable, with many having them out.

I think this whole "CAA is down this year" crap is laughable. It's just an image thing, like you said. Luckily, I think the committee is smart enough not to fall for it. Their job is to select the best at-large teams, period. I think JMU will be considered worthy of the playoffs at 7-4. Obviously, I'm biased. I wouldn't be shocked or outraged if we didn't get in, however. Disappointed, though.

[Mr. C]

I think this whole "CAA is down this year" crap is laughable. It's just an image thing, like you said. Luckily, I think the committee is smart enough not to fall for it. Their job is to select the best at-large teams, period. I think JMU will be considered worthy of the playoffs at 7-4. Obviously, I'm biased. I wouldn't be shocked or outraged if we didn't get in, however. Disappointed, though.

You may think it is an image thing, but when half of the coaches in the league are telling you that, then you know it is something that even some pretty knowledgeable people think. If you don't think the CAA is down this year, you haven't been watching. That is to take nothing away from the job Towson and Maine have done this season.

[Go Apps]

You may think it is an image thing, but when half of the coaches in the league are telling you that, then you know it is something that even some pretty knowledgeable people think. If you don't think the CAA is down this year, you haven't been watching. That is to take nothing away from the job Towson and Maine have done this season.

Only the playoffs determine how a league really stacks up against another - at least we have a playoff system to find out!

[Go Apps]

I think this whole "CAA is down this year" crap is laughable. It's just an image thing, like you said. Luckily, I think the committee is smart enough not to fall for it. Their job is to select the best at-large teams, period. I think JMU will be considered worthy of the playoffs at 7-4. Obviously, I'm biased. I wouldn't be shocked or outraged if we didn't get in, however. Disappointed, though.

I think the CAA will not get 5 in this year and that leaves out most likely JMU - but if you have Wofford, Indiana State, Young St and Liberty win - you will be in better shape for an at large - but the CAA just doesn't seem to have the push this year...

[jmufan999]

You may think it is an image thing, but when half of the coaches in the league are telling you that, then you know it is something that even some pretty knowledgeable people think.

Do you have quotes? I haven't heard anything like this from coaches.

[Catbooster]

You may think it is an image thing, but when half of the coaches in the league are telling you that, then you know it is something that even some pretty knowledgeable people think. If you don't think the CAA is down this year, you haven't been watching. That is to take nothing away from the job Towson and Maine have done this season.

It would be interesting to know which teams' coaches think it's a down year (not that it woud settle the question). It seems as though the fans most likely to claim it is a down year are the ones who are traditionally at/near the top but aren't this year. Maybe the teams the fans follow are down, so they think the league is down? Or maybe they've been comparing teams nationwide for a longer time than the newer teams' fans, so are better able to judge the realtive strength? Maybe the newer top teams' fans don't want to see the league being weaker this year because they think it would mean their team is not as good as they thought?

I'm not convinced FCS or even CAA are down this year, but I'm not sure. Being most familiar with the Big Sky, I don't think it's down this year.

And I agree that it's hard to say until the playoffs happen.

[Engineer86]

Seriously - people need to get on board with this Towson team - they have as good a resume as any with 3 wins over playoff teams

Hell if they had beat Delaware they would have a legit case for #1 in the country right now

Agree, unless they lose, I think they have to be a seed

[CopperCat]

Here's my projection based off what I think will happen this weekend...

BRACKET 1
----------------------------
Tennessee Tech/Illinois St @ 1 Sam Houston State
Maine @ Northern Iowa
-------------------------------------------------
Stony Brook/Youngstown St @ 4 Montana
Lehigh @ 5 Towson

BRACKET 2
------------------------------
Albany/New Hampshire @ 2 North Dakota St
Wofford @ Montana St (shades of 2007 where Wofford was sent to Montana)
-------------------------------------------------
Norfolk St/Central Arkansas @ 3 Georgia Southern (the lack of teams from the south make this bracket necessary)
Old Dominion @ Appalachian St (shades of 2007 when JMU played at App)

It was actually Furman that came to the frozen north. Snowed a foot the night before the game.

I guess MSU has something to prove. Lots of naysayers out there.

[Skjellyfetti]

Wofford @ Montana St (shades of 2007 where Wofford was sent to Montana)


It was actually Furman that came to the frozen north.

http://scores.espn.go.com/ncf/recap?gameId=273280149

[CopperCat]

http://scores.espn.go.com/ncf/recap?gameId=273280149

I was reading too fast, didn't see it was UM that he was referring to. I had forgotten about Wofford's trip out west. And come to think of it, I don't think FU came to MSU that year anyway. A simple case of foot-in-mouth disease.

[Squealofthepig]

It was actually Furman that came to the frozen north. Snowed a foot the night before the game.

I guess MSU has something to prove. Lots of naysayers out there.

Believe he meant when Wofford was sent to Wa-Griz and the Terriers won in a very solid game. Great fanbase, was fun watching the triple option worked so well (even if it was a Griz loss).

[hidalgo]

How many 9-2 teams will not get in?

[VT Wildcat Fan53]

Seriously - people need to get on board with this Towson team - they have as good a resume as any with 3 wins over playoff teams

Hell if they had beat Delaware they would have a legit case for #1 in the country right now

xthumbsupx No question about it!

Anybody who watched or listened to Towson literally run all over a very good UNH team would certainly agree with you. Towson has a chance to get the title game, IMHO. West is as good as there is in the nation at TB. Defense will inevitably be a potential stumbling block, but so far, the Tigers have had no trouble outscoring everyone, .... even manged 30 in loss to UDel.

[B&G]

Here's my projection based off what I think will happen this weekend...

BRACKET 1
----------------------------
Tennessee Tech/Illinois St @ 1 Sam Houston State
Maine @ Northern Iowa
-------------------------------------------------
Stony Brook/Youngstown St @ 4 Montana
Lehigh @ 5 Towson

BRACKET 2
------------------------------
Albany/New Hampshire @ 2 North Dakota St
Wofford @ Montana St (shades of 2007 where Wofford was sent to Montana)
-------------------------------------------------
Norfolk St/Central Arkansas @ 3 Georgia Southern (the lack of teams from the south make this bracket necessary)
Old Dominion @ Appalachian St (shades of 2007 when JMU played at App)


I might be wrong but how I set this up was picking the Top 5 seeds without looking at anything else. Then I took 1st round games and set them up with the top 4 seeds. That left seven teams to match up so this was how things fell.

If Sam Houston State finishes undefeated, then they have to get the #1 seed in my opinion. I know the SLC isn't the strongest conference but they have solid wins over Central Arkansas and FBS New Mexico who are terrible but they're still a good win. The rest of their wins were by at least two touchdowns.

At this point I think Montana State is in the same boat as SHSU by playing in an unimpressive conference. Utah is much better than New Mexico but a loss is a loss. The Bobcats still have to play their stiffest test... as do the Montana Grizzlies. I have a gut feeling that Montana wins but obviously Montana State should be the favorites. If the Bobcats win, then it's an easy tweak...

You'd have Wofford going to Montana instead, MSU is the #2 seed, NDSU becomes the #3, GSU becomes #4 and everything else stays the same.

[Go Apps]

[QUOTE=hidalgo;1723307]How many 9-2 teams will not get in?[/QUOTE
\


I believe that might be Georgetown and perhaps San Diego?

[Go Apps]

Based on the recent GPI I think I might want to reconsider my seeds - but will wait until the games are played this week - I feel like Furman is back in play...

[Fear the Bird]

Based on the recent GPI I think I might want to reconsider my seeds - but will wait until the games are played this week - I feel like Furman is back in play...

The same FU that lost to CCU, Samford and Elon and got absolutely boat raced by GSU or a different one? They are done

[danefan]

How many 9-2 teams will not get in?


I believe that might be Georgetown and perhaps San Diego?

Georgetown will be 8-3.
San Diego may be 9-2 or 8-3.

Its very likely a team from an AQ conference will end up at 9-2 and not in.........Duquesne........(probably correctly out though).

[UNH72Plus]

xthumbsupx No question about it!

Anybody who watched or listened to Towson literally run all over a very good UNH team would certainly agree with you. Towson has a chance to get the title game, IMHO. West is as good as there is in the nation at TB. Defense will inevitably be a potential stumbling block, but so far, the Tigers have had no trouble outscoring everyone, .... even manged 30 in loss to UDel.

I'm not so sure. They gave up 600+ yards, and but for a couple of turnovers, UNH would have been right there at the end, even with an horrible defensive showing. Towson scored five TDs on plays covering 45 (pick 6), 56 (pass), 69 & 72 (rushing), and 93 (kick-off) primarily because UNH couldn't tackle! Any kind of defensive effort and the game could have been a lot different.

[VT Wildcat Fan53]

I'm not so sure. They gave up 600+ yards, and but for a couple of turnovers, UNH would have been right there at the end, even with an horrible defensive showing. Towson scored five TDs on plays covering 45 (pick 6), 56 (pass), 69 & 72 (rushing), and 93 (kick-off) primarily because UNH couldn't tackle! Any kind of defensive effort and the game could have been a lot different.

Precisely why UNH is another team that no playoff opponent should overlook. Maybe the Wildcats don't have the D to get to the finals, but in the 1st, 2nd, and Qtrfinal rounds, teams should be wary. How many great defenses are there in FCS? If UNH doesn't run into one of the few early, Decker and Co. could take them fairly deep. ....have to beat UMaine first, however.