Identifying the 20 playoff teams

[SumItUp]

I've narrowed it down to 22 likely nominations for the 20 spots.

Big Sky (2) Montana State, Montana
Big South (1) Liberty/Stony Brook
CAA (4-5) Towson, Maine, Old Dominion, New Hampshire, James Madison
MEAC (1) Norfolk State
MVFC (3-5) North Dakota State, Northern Iowa, Illinois State, Indiana State, Youngstown State
NEC (1) Albany
OVC (1) Eastern Kentucky/Jacksonville State/Murray State/Tennessee Tech
Patriot (1) Lehigh
Southern (2-3) Georgia Southern, Appalachian State, Wofford
Southland (1-2) Sam Houston State, Central Arkansas

If all of the above teams that NEED a win get a victory, I believe two of the following three teams will not be selected by the playoff committee (James Madison, Illinois State, Central Arkansas)

Playoff chaos - If three of the following teams lose next week, a spot will be opened for one surprise selection. If all four teams lose, it will open two surprise spots.

James Madison
Indiana State
Youngstown State
Wofford


Teams/conferences hoping for final week chaos
MEAC - 2nd place team
NEC - Duquesne
OVC - 2nd place team
Patriot - Georgetown


Key games for week 12
James Madison @ Massachusetts - JMU must win to reach 7 D1 wins
New Hampshire vs. Maine - New Hampshire solidifies playoff spot with a win and probably has a spot even with a loss unless each of the four teams (JMU, ISUb, YSU, Wofford) win next week. Two consecutive losses to close the season could leave them on the outside.
Indiana State vs. Southern Illinois - ISUb must win to reach 7 D1 wins
Illinois State @ Northern Iowa - If Illinois state loses and the four teams (JMU, ISUb, YSU, Wofford) win, they could be on the bubble. That Eastern Illinois loss looms large.
Wofford @ Chattanooga - If Wofford wins, they are in. If they lose, they're done.

Chances are that a few of the teams that need need to win next week will not get it done and the playoff picture will clear up considerably next Saturday night.

What do you think? Is this accurate?

[frozennorth]

Illinois st won 7 of their last 8 if they lose. They are in no matter what.

[Twentysix]

Agreed, so long as YSU wins next week, I find it hard to believe the valley gets less than 4 after how it has played out.

[TTUEagles]

You left out Tennessee Tech in the OVC. IF TTU beats a 3-7 APSU team Saturday, they are the OVC champ.

[Engineer86]

I think if ISUr loses, it will depend how things play out. If there is a tough decision to be made, the loss and how close the game is could be an issue. It will help that they are playing UNI.

I think if all teams win out, and even if UNH loses to Maine, a 7-4 ISUr team due to that Eastern Illinois loss is in trouble, and ISUb is right there with them. I would lean to UCA and YSU being in ahead of them.

[unigriff]

I have to agree that I don't think it matters either way what happens with the MVFC. If ISUb wins...all 5 are in, which would be a first in quite a few years...bringing the conference back to dominance of sorts.

[Cincy App]

I believe ISUr needs to win against UNI or will need help to get in the field. IMO, they have the worst resume of any of the primary bubble teams listed by SumItUp. ISUr would be the only team with 4 FCS losses and sports that ugly loss to OVC doormat Eastern Illinois.

With that being said, all it takes is a loss by YSU or ISUb or one of the other bubble teams (JMU or Wofford) to make ISUr a likely playoff team.

[The Eagle's Cliff]

There are only 5 spots left with App, UNH, Wofford, and Illinois St. securing 4 of them with wins next week.

Playoff Locks:
Montana St 10-1 or 9-2
Montana 8-3 or 9-2
Big South Auto (Stony Brook or Liberty)
Norfolk St. 9-2 MEAC Auto
Old Dominion 9-2
NDSU 10-1 or 9-2
UNI 9-2 or 8-3
NEC Auto (Alabany with a win or Duquesne)
OVC Auto (TTU with a win or EKU with a win and TTU loss)
Lehigh 10-1 or 9-2 Patriot Auto
GSU 9-2 (or 10-1 xshhhx) SoCon Auto
SHSU 11-0 or 10-1
CAU 8-3
Towson 9-2 or 8-3
Maine 9-2 or 8-3

5 spots left:
App with a win over Elon in at 8-3
UNH with a win over Maine in at 8-3
Wofford with a win over Chatty in at 8-3
Ill St with a win over UNI in at 8-3

Last in:
Youngstown with a win at 7-4
Bethune vs FAMU winner at 8-3
UNH at 7-4
Duquesne at 8-3
Georgetown at 8-3
JMU at 7-4

[SumItUp]

You left out Tennessee Tech in the OVC. IF TTU beats a 3-7 APSU team Saturday, they are the OVC champ.

Thanks, I fixed it.

[IaaScribe]

I really think the only teams in play for those final spots are Wofford (lock if they win), JMU, Indiana State and Youngstown State. Not enough on the resume of the second-place MEAC or NEC teams at 8-3 to even get a sniff.

I'm really having trouble parsing between the three MVFC teams (ISUb, ISUr and YSU all beat each other). And if YSU gets to 7-4 and it comes down to the Penguins vs. JMU at 7-4, who gets in? YSU has the signature win at NDSU but played a garbage non-conference schedule and has a bad loss to SDSU. JMU doesn't have any bad losses, but the Dukes' signature win is at Liberty, a victory that won't look so hot if the Flames don't beat Stony Brook Saturday.

[grayghost06]

Am I reading the Sports Network poll from last week correctly? Did Youngstown not even receive 1 vote in the poll? Are they on some SN probation? Were the SN pollsters unaware of their existence? Did the pollsters really rank 59 other FCS teams above them? If true, it would take an unprecindented leap to catapult them into contention.

[WrenFGun]

UNH's resume is still better than most of these other teams (but YSU is in at 7-4), but yeah, they're not very good. I'd be surprised if they didn't get in even if they lost to Maine (given they do have a win over JMU and Lehigh), but going 0-2 down the stretch is never good.

[IaaScribe]

Am I reading the Sports Network poll from last week correctly? Did Youngstown not even receive 1 vote in the poll? Are they on some SN probation? Were the SN pollsters unaware of their existence? Did the pollsters really rank 59 other FCS teams above them? If true, it would take an unprecindented leap to catapult them into contention.

YSU started 2-3 with the only wins coming over St. Francis and Valpo. And they had a loss to South Dakota State. That's enough to drop them completely off the radar. Had they beaten UNI last week and were 6-3 instead of 5-4, I'm sure they would have gotten a stronger look.

[SumItUp]

I really think the only teams in play for those final spots are Wofford (lock if they win), JMU, Indiana State and Youngstown State. Not enough on the resume of the second-place MEAC or NEC teams at 8-3 to even get a sniff.

I'm really having trouble parsing between the three MVFC teams (ISUb, ISUr and YSU all beat each other). And if YSU gets to 7-4 and it comes down to the Penguins vs. JMU at 7-4, who gets in? YSU has the signature win at NDSU but played a garbage non-conference schedule and has a bad loss to SDSU. JMU doesn't have any bad losses, but the Dukes' signature win is at Liberty, a victory that won't look so hot if the Flames don't beat Stony Brook Saturday.

I am in agreement with what you posted, but in the highly unlikely scenario that Wofford, JMU, Indiana State and Youngstown State each lost and did not get to 7D1 wins, then what?

[IaaScribe]

Wofford and JMU losing aren't too far fetched. Both have to go on the road and play decent teams. Bethune-Cookman would be the only team with a real argument out of that other group since they beat Norfolk State. Duquesne and Georgetown don't have anything to hang their hats on.

[Humble Steward]

There are only 5 spots left with App, UNH, Wofford, and Illinois St. securing 4 of them with wins next week.

Playoff Locks:
Montana St 10-1 or 9-2
Montana 8-3 or 9-2
Big South Auto (Stony Brook or Liberty)
Norfolk St. 9-2 MEAC Auto
Old Dominion 9-2
NDSU 10-1 or 9-2
UNI 9-2 or 8-3
NEC Auto (Alabany with a win or Duquesne)
OVC Auto (TTU with a win or EKU with a win and TTU loss)
Lehigh 10-1 or 9-2 Patriot Auto
GSU 9-2 (or 10-1 xshhhx) SoCon Auto
SHSU 11-0 or 10-1
CAU 8-3
Towson 9-2 or 8-3
Maine 9-2 or 8-3

5 spots left:
App with a win over Elon in at 8-3
UNH with a win over Maine in at 8-3
Wofford with a win over Chatty in at 8-3
Ill St with a win over UNI in at 8-3

Last in:
Youngstown with a win at 7-4
Bethune vs FAMU winner at 8-3
UNH at 7-4
Duquesne at 8-3
Georgetown at 8-3
JMU at 7-4

I think we get in with win at the Florida Classic. Finish the season with a 6 game winning streak and a offense that is finally putting points on the board.

[DoubleE]

YSU started 2-3 with the only wins coming over St. Francis and Valpo. And they had a loss to South Dakota State. That's enough to drop them completely off the radar. Had they beaten UNI last week and were 6-3 instead of 5-4, I'm sure they would have gotten a stronger look.

Incorrect

@ Michigan State L 28-6
H Valparaiso W 77-13
H Illinois State W 34-27
@ Indiana State L 37-35
H South Dakota State L 35-28
@ Southern Illinois W 35-23
H St Francis W 49-23
H Western Illinois 56-14
@ Northern Iowa L 21-17
@ North Dakota State W 27-24
H Missouri State

[DJKyR0]

Tough not to look at YSU and think they at least have a strong shot at getting an at-large bid if they can win against Missouri State next week (which by all rights they should). Played their losses very close and have put up impressive numbers offensively all season. Have to like where they're headed when all the new blood in the program can gel into a more cohesive unit in the next year or two, considering how they're all playing now.

[PantherRob82]

I have to agree that I don't think it matters either way what happens with the MVFC. If ISUb wins...all 5 are in, which would be a first in quite a few years...bringing the conference back to dominance of sorts.

No way does the MVFC get 5 teams in. 4 would be quite a feat.

[PantherRob82]

Really not very many teams at play this year. I don't remember a year where teams could be so certain of their fate.

[apaladin]

If Woffy loses to UTC, the SoCon only gets 2 in?

[IaaScribe]

Incorrect

@ Michigan State L 28-6
H Valparaiso W 77-13
H Illinois State W 34-27
@ Indiana State L 37-35
H South Dakota State L 35-28
@ Southern Illinois W 35-23
H St Francis W 49-23
H Western Illinois 56-14
@ Northern Iowa L 21-17
@ North Dakota State W 27-24
H Missouri State

My bad. I had the dates of the Illinois State and St. Francis games mixed up in my head. Point still stands, though. At 2-3 after a loss to SD State, not many people were thinking about the Penguins.

[DoubleE]

Tough not to look at YSU and think they at least have a strong shot at getting an at-large bid if they can win against Missouri State next week (which by all rights they should). Played their losses very close and have put up impressive numbers offensively all season. Have to like where they're headed when all the new blood in the program can gel into a more cohesive unit in the next year or two, considering how they're all playing now.

I agree, YSU will be a preseason top 10 in FCS Next season as they dont graduate any key players. this is a very very young team coming together at the right time. its an exciting time to be a penguin fan again

[401ks]

As a Duquesne supporter, I want to start by saying that I believe that the Dukes' chances of getting into the playoffs as an At-Large team are somewhere between infinitesimal and none. However...

I just want to point out that if Duquesne beats Robert Morris at home this week (as expected), the Dukes will finish with a 9-2 record and 9 Division I victories. (NOT 8-3)

xpeacex

[Big Dawg]

I think we get in with win at the Florida Classic. Finish the season with a 6 game winning streak and a offense that is finally putting points on the board.

The Florida Classic is gonna be huge...but just in case you forgot who runs the classic, check the sig LOL

[JmuSkinsfan]

I still think a 7-4 CAA team with a 2-1 conference record gets in. Replace the UNC game with another FCS scrub and JMU is 8-3 and looking at a bye in week 1 ... just think it shouldn't be looked down on. Of course, JMU needs to win Saturday for that to even be in the discussion, but I think the 5th place 5-3 CAA team with a 7-4 overall record is in.

[Humble Steward]

The Florida Classic is gonna be huge...but just in case you forgot who runs the classic, check the sig LOL

Big Dawg, I remember. I also remember we were leading 27-12 in the 3rd Qtr when Matt Johnson went down with a separated shoulder. Then Jackie Wilson (2nd string QB) came in and had to play on a severly sprained (possibly broken) ankle. But I remember, you guys won.

[ODUsmitty]

I still think a 7-4 CAA team with a 2-1 conference record gets in. Replace the UNC game with another FCS scrub and JMU is 8-3 and looking at a bye in week 1 ... just think it shouldn't be looked down on. Of course, JMU needs to win Saturday for that to even be in the discussion, but I think the 5th place 5-3 CAA team with a 7-4 overall record is in.

There is a difference here, though. JMU chose to travel and whore themselves out to a FBS school for a decent payday, vice scheduling a home game vs a FcS opponent. Your AD CHOSE to get paid, and assumed the risk that JMU would have to impress in its remaining OOC games and CAA schedule. JMU, to date, has not. You seem to want the best of both worlds in wanting the big payday 1-a game, yet don't want to accept that loss as valid. Just like the real world, such decisions are made all the time, and there always is a tradeoff.

Now, most of us would agree that JMU is most likely one of the top 20 teams in the nation, but your CHOICE to play and lose to UNC, does not and should not help your case when you will likely end up 5th in the CAA. Please win next weekend and make your case as strongly as possible. I really like JMU football, even if I think Mickey Matthews is a terrible playcaller that is holding back this team (see ODU game 2nd half..........)